Quote:
Originally Posted by russellw
Time for some graph updates:
The first look at the new case numbers but as there was starting to be too big a disparity in the numbers, the graph is divided into (1) Australia / NZ; (2) UK / Germany / Italy / Spain; and (3) USA. They pretty much speak for themselves.
image
image
image
The second set are 2nd order polynomial trends - again the USA has been separated out due to the higher raw numbers.
image
image |
Pretty interesting graphs Russ.
From a model/maths perspective what would we expect to see as the number of infections drop off like in AU and NZ.
From memory, I may be wrong... An exponential decay in maths terms will never cross the zero axis?? so at what stage could we ever say we are free from infection from a modelling perspective?
I'm kind of thinking from a practical perspective we cannot eliminate it as I think I heard a comment that you would need 2 incubation cycles with zero detected infections to have confidence it was gone... And I cannot see that happening