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Originally Posted by guzzis3
But this isn't theoretical mathematics, it's data analysis. His fits are curve smoothing not curve generation. If the real data produces no new cases then cases are zero.
If your aim is to eradicate the virus entirely in australia (for example) you have to achieve that through real world action.
Modelling predicts what might happen. Data analysis examines what has happened, and the data presentation makes understanding it easier. None of these drive reality.
Regarding Sweden, I'm not sure you understand the premise of their actions. They contend that other countries will get subsequent waves of virus, that public disobedience will increase and that overall others will see higher death rates. Others disagree. It is far too early to say if they are right or wrong.
What is more important ? that fewer people die this week or fewer people die overall ?
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What is more important is that we try to achieve both. The lockdowns have been aimed at reducing the infection rate so that the health care system can cope but yes, we do need a longer term strategy if we are to minimise the longer term mortality rate.
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Originally Posted by cs123
Pretty interesting graphs Russ.
From a model/maths perspective what would we expect to see as the number of infections drop off like in AU and NZ.
From memory, I may be wrong... An exponential decay in maths terms will never cross the zero axis?? so at what stage could we ever say we are free from infection from a modelling perspective?
I'm kind of thinking from a practical perspective we cannot eliminate it as I think I heard a comment that you would need 2 incubation cycles with zero detected infections to have confidence it was gone... And I cannot see that happening
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As pointed out this is historical data analysis and while the trend lines are worth watching they don't serve as a predictor of actual outcome just where the overall trend is heading.
On that basis the downward arcing trend lines are a good thing and the upward ones not so good.
Elimination is unlikely unless we are fortunate enough that it follows the original SARS pattern and goes away on its own. The more likely scenario is that relatively isolated countries like Australia and UnZud manage to reach a 28 day zero new case state at which point there are some tough decisions to be made at the Government level as to how we approach the new world order which is where my earlier crystal-balling came into play.
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Originally Posted by CyberWasp
So in the near future with the talk of easing restrictions we could also be in a unique position.
Other countries like Singapore have had a second wave after initially doing very well.
What are peoples thoughts on easing restrictions so as not to have a second wave and thus back into lock down again?
Should we ease different restrictions in different states, so any mistakes are identified and not multiplied across the whole country for example.
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I'm frankly against easing restrictions until we reach the 28-day zero case status mentioned above. If a particular State reaches that earlier than others then maybe that could be used as a test case but you'd still have to restrict cross border travel to ensure that you don't cross-contaminate.
It's not an easy call and I'd not like to be making it because you probably aren't going to please anyone.
I'm going to look at a different set of numbers - daily new cases per adult capita and see what that shows. Back shortly....