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Old 11-05-2017, 12:14 AM   #1
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Default A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

A talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

An interesting concept of what could lay ahead...

In a recent interview the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al' are…… There have always been the 3 constants ... Death, Taxes and CHANGE!

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done
by humans.

So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.

It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating
insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.
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Old 11-05-2017, 01:23 AM   #2
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

These are all wonderful notions and no doubt some, not all, will become the status quo. But, my argument has always been, "are we a better world to live in due the changes of the 20/21st century?". There is obviously many things that make life better and easier, but equally, technology has made things worse. We now pump so much into the atmosphere due to burning fossil fuels from cars and industry, it will have an ever-changing effect on the world. Technology has also made us a very lazy society. We sit at computers for hours on end, flick the channels on the TV without lifting a muscle. And this has made us a fat population and one which has become a worldwide health problem. Medicine has made us live longer, but do we live healthier? I don't want to sound like a dramatist, but I don't think we are headed for a better future.
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Old 11-05-2017, 09:33 AM   #3
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

Our technology has exploded since Roswell, is alien technology slowly being introduced to us ? Eg : mobile phone of 30 years ago to today's smart phones? My first car lift the bonnet carby on the right, engine and distributor on the right Now, nothing is diy . Future is interesting!!
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Old 11-05-2017, 02:31 PM   #4
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

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My first car lift the bonnet carby on the right, engine and distributor on the right Now, nothing is diy . Future is interesting!!
It still is DIY, just a different skillset.
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Old 11-05-2017, 10:17 AM   #5
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

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<snip>

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

<snip>
This one line singulary invalidates every other prediction made. With 80% of the world unemployed, it will be pandemonium as people will be forced to find a meal wherever they can find it. And they won't care how they get it.

Some might say what about a universal wage... how will that be funded if the responsibility for such a scheme rests with govco which is dependent on taxation revenues which no longer exist due to the almost saturation level of unemployment?

A complete paradigm shift is required for the entire world, one that turns on it's head the notion of fractional reserve banking, one that organically rewards innovation and hard work (note I didn't say automatically), one that destroys any and all notions of class and social stratification (we are different, but that doesn't make the differences a valid reason for stratification), one where everyone is educated and has a working sense of personal responsibility, obviating the need for any governmental structures...
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Old 11-05-2017, 11:28 AM   #6
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

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This one line singulary invalidates every other prediction made. With 80% of the world unemployed, it will be pandemonium as people will be forced to find a meal wherever they can find it. And they won't care how they get it.
I think what he is saying is that 70 - 80% of existing professions and types of work humans do as we know it today will disappear due to automation, software, robotics, etc.

There will be new jobs created, and many people will need to re-skill to survive in the coming new world of automation.

So there won't be 80% mass unemployment.
Also the governments of the world will put an "income" tax on companies that replace human workers with robots, so money will still flow to them.

If a 10 year old child said to me today.... "What should I study and get into, to secure future employment in 10 - 15 years from now... I would answer... "Son... Become a robotics engineer or technician!"
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Old 11-05-2017, 11:48 AM   #7
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

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I think what he is saying is that 70 - 80% of existing professions and types of work humans do as we know it today will disappear due to automation, software, robotics, etc.

There will be new jobs created, and many people will need to re-skill to survive in the coming new world of automation.

So there won't be 80% mass unemployment.
Also the governments of the world will put an "income" tax on companies that replace human workers with robots, so money will still flow to them.

If a 10 year old child said to me today.... "What should I study and get into, to secure future employment in 10 - 15 years from now... I would answer... "Son... Become a robotics engineer or technician!"
That's the problem though, automation will even take over the jobs we still consider to be too intricate for a machine. The world has never been in a position where the economic base has shifted inexorably towards automation.
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Old 11-05-2017, 11:57 AM   #8
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That's the problem though, automation will even take over the jobs we still consider to be too intricate for a machine. The world has never been in a position where the economic base has shifted inexorably towards automation.
I agree... Looks like the plot and themes in the Terminator movies, will one day come to be. The machines we create and artificial intelligence may take over and control mankind.
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Old 11-05-2017, 12:03 PM   #9
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

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I agree... Looks like the plot and themes in the Terminator movies, will one day come to be. The machines we create and artificial intelligence may take over and control mankind.
I don't think it'll go down that path, but the world isn't able to employ 4-5 billion people as baristas and Costco greeters:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8zNsUTWsOc
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Old 11-05-2017, 01:42 PM   #10
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

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I agree... Looks like the plot and themes in the Terminator movies, will one day come to be. The machines we create and artificial intelligence may take over and control mankind.

In the 2020s as we usher in 5g technology current mid tier employment opportunities like GPs, Lawyers and so on will become increasingly redundant..................the future employment landscape will completely change and be dominated by those that are either innovative or of a highly technical background and many current mainstream jobs will become more boutique and less relevant.

Cheers Mick
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Old 11-05-2017, 12:06 PM   #11
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I hope you all have attractive kids/grandkids, because it seems the only job left for people will be prostitution.....
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Old 11-05-2017, 01:09 PM   #12
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I hope you all have attractive kids/grandkids, because it seems the only job left for people will be prostitution.....
There will be attractive robotic whores.... Never grow old, a perfect 10, clean and no diseases, cheaper, so we might have to tick the oldest profession off the list as well.
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Old 11-05-2017, 01:11 PM   #13
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

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There will be attractive robotic whores.... Never grow old, a perfect 10, clean and no diseases, cheaper, so we might have to tick the oldest profession off the list as well.
And they won't talk back...
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Old 11-05-2017, 03:30 PM   #14
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

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There will be attractive robotic whores.... Never grow old, a perfect 10, clean and no diseases, cheaper, so we might have to tick the oldest profession off the list as well.
Question is, do you buy one $400 dollar hookerbot, or 400 $1 dollar hookerbots?
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Old 11-05-2017, 12:19 PM   #15
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

There's one He didnt mention...

https://youtu.be/wLidTCqAAtY
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Old 11-05-2017, 12:42 PM   #16
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

When I was growing up we were all going to be flying around with jetpacks by 1990.

Instead we got a Segway.
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Old 11-05-2017, 01:27 PM   #17
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

Maybe AI will evolve enough to write its own software. Then I can be put out to pasture...
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Old 11-05-2017, 01:49 PM   #18
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

When will technology replace the need for lawyers
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Old 11-05-2017, 01:52 PM   #19
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

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When will technology replace the need for lawyers
When it gets jokes like this:

"You're trapped in a cage with a lion, a cobra and a lawyer. You have a gun and two bullets. What do you shoot?

The lawyer - twice"
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Old 11-05-2017, 02:02 PM   #20
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When will technology replace the need for lawyers
its already starting, my wife who is a lawyer is looking forward to future proof herself as all the large companies know that they will need less lawyers in the future to do the same work. she has been to multiple meetings about this and the new computer software that will answer questions quickly with less chance of being wrong than she could
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Old 11-05-2017, 02:45 PM   #21
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the new computer software that will answer questions quickly with less chance of being wrong
Pfffffft........ I don't need any of that.
I have a wife..........
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Old 11-05-2017, 11:06 PM   #22
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Pfffffft........ I don't need any of that.
I have a wife..........
Yeah, but he has a wife who is also a Lawyer...
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Old 11-05-2017, 11:01 PM   #23
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

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When will technology replace the need for lawyers

Lawyers was just one example..............I don't think many realise the scope of professions that will go by the wayside as AI becomes more self aware into the future.

Cheers Mick
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Old 12-05-2017, 09:23 AM   #24
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Lawyers was just one example..............I don't think many realise the scope of professions that will go by the wayside as AI becomes more self aware into the future.

Cheers Mick

Even the humble Brickie will be replaced by Automation.
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Old 12-05-2017, 09:35 AM   #25
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

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Even the humble Brickie will be replaced by Automation.
http://fbr.com.au/

About time too lol, I've seen some of the quality of the bricklaying lately, even my house, very inconsistent.
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Old 13-05-2017, 04:29 PM   #26
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not a bum crack in sight either
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Old 13-05-2017, 05:28 PM   #27
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

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Lawyers was just one example..............I don't think many realise the scope of professions that will go by the wayside as AI becomes more self aware into the future.

Cheers Mick
Except it will take lawyers to write the laws that will replace them and judges. How will a judge react to being questioned by a machine/computer. If you follow this illogical theory then we may as well go the full monty and replace the politicians. Does anyone else think this has a snowflakes chance in hell of happening?
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Old 13-05-2017, 10:13 PM   #28
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

Will be interesting when China is ready to start mining the moon and decides to claim it as it's own. Doubt the US and even Russia will stand buy and allow that to happen.
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Old 16-05-2017, 11:18 AM   #29
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Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

Came across this article in the London Telegraph, published two days ago.

My comment is that I think the timeline is a little optimistic, but the basic premise will eventuate, in around 15 - 20 years. The larger cities will be at the forefront of this revolution.

Quote:
Race to electric cars fuels world of stranded assets

No more petrol or diesel cars, buses or trucks will be sold anywhere within eight years.The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.

This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, blandly entitled Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing deep anxiety in the established industries.

Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving and switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are 10 times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near zero marginal cost of fuel.

Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares or anybody to fix the 2000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine.

Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel. This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a ‘‘mass stranding of existing vehicles’’. The value of second-hard cars will plunge.

The long-term price of crude will fall to $US25 a barrel. Most forms of shale and deep-water drilling will no longer be viable. Assets will be stranded. It is an existential threat to Ford, General Motors and the German car industry. They will face a choice between manufacturing EVs in a brutal low-profit market, or reinventing themselves as self-drive service companies.

The next generation of cars will be ‘‘computers on wheels’’. Silicon Valley is where the auto action is, not Detroit or Toyota City.

The shift, according to Seba, is driven by technology, not climate policies. Market forces are bringing it about with a speed and ferocity that governments could never hope to achieve.

‘‘We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,’’ Seba said. ‘‘Internal combustion engine vehicles will enter a vicious cycle of increasing costs.’’

The ‘‘tipping point’’ will arrive over the next two to three years as EV battery ranges surpass 320 kilometres and electric car prices in the US drop to
$US30,000. By 2022 the low-end models will be down to $US20,000. After that, the avalanche will sweep all before it.

‘‘Our research and modelling indicate that the $10 trillion annual revenues in the existing vehicle and oil supply chains will shrink dramatically,’’ Seba said.

‘‘Certain high-cost countries, companies, and fields will see their oil production entirely wiped out. Exxon-Mobil, Shell and BP could see 40 per cent to 50 per cent of their assets become stranded,’’ the report said.

While the professor’s timing may be off by a few years, there is little doubt about the general direction. India is drawing up plans to phase out all petrol and diesel cars by 2032, leap-frogging China in an electrification race across
Asia.

China is moving in parallel, pushing for seven million electric vehicles by 2025, enforced by a minimum quota for ‘‘new energy’’ vehicles that shifts the burden for the switch on to manufacturers.

Experts will argue over Seba’s claims. His broad point is that multiple technological trends are combining in a perfect storm. The simplicity of the EV model is breathtaking. The Tesla S has 18 moving parts, one hundred times fewer than a combustion engine car.

It has long been known that EVs are four times more efficient than petrol or diesel cars, which lose 80 per cent of their power in heat. What changes the equation is the advent of EV models with the acceleration and performance of
a Lamborghini costing five or 10 times less to buy, and at least 10 times less to run.

The parallel is what happened to film cameras – and to Kodak – once digital rivals hit the market. It was swift and brutal. There’ll be losers. Whole countries will spin into crisis. The world’s geopolitical order will be reshaped almost overnight. But humanity as a whole should enjoy an enormous welfare gain.
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Old 11-05-2017, 03:16 PM   #30
snowcone
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Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 494
Default Re: A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

We still have to eat and live somewhere. We will still want to be entertained.
Just a couple of things that will still require human intervention.
Just consider food as one example - there might be ways that robotics can grow vegetables etc, but who is going to farm the cattle for our meat eaters, who will process the meat, who will repair and maintain the refrigeration required to store the meat. Will the meat somehow load itself onto an automatically driven refrigerated truck and miraculously arrive at our favourite restaurant, which is still being operated by a human.

As long as you are prepared to work a career in some form of service and repair industry, you will be OK.
It's just the shiny @rses that wont have a job anymore.
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