Diesel is dead, says Lexus chief

[Road_Warrior]

http://www.carpoint.com.au/news/2011...us-chief-24237

Tony Cramb is the chief executive of Lexus in Australia and he has a message: Time is running out for the diesel engine.

"By 2014, Euro 6 regulations come into force in Europe for all newly-launched vehicles," he explained. "And by 2016, it will be for all new vehicles, no matter when they were developed. Australia is not immune from the implications of this change.

"Euro 6 puts diesel under the spotlight, singling out NOx [nitrogen oxides] in particular... with massive financial impacts. To put the financial impact into perspective, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association estimates that it will cost six to eight billion Euros to roll out Euro 6 -- just to the heavy vehicle industry.

"And while hybrid prices come down, due to critical mass and commercialisation, the European commission also found that consumers could expect a minimum $1500 rise in the cost of each vehicle to improve diesel from the current Euro 4 to Euro 6 standard.

"These price increases will be realised by the adoption of four-way NOx catalysts, particulate filters -- or soot traps -- along with urea injection. But all of these are downstream fixes.

"It's also worth remembering that Australia lags European countries in diesel quality, with Australia's sulphur content 500 times that of Europe's.

"It's here that we see the biggest opportunity for hybrids. As manufacturers move to Euro 6, Australia will have to follow. With lesser quality fuel and rising diesel vehicle development costs, just how far can these diesels go?"

Cramb (pictured) has a vested interest in promoting hybrid-drive vehicles to Aussies, there's no doubt about that. But during his presentation to the local media at the launch of the company's CT200h, he drew on the statements from two heavies of the European automotive industry to corroborate his view that diesel engine development is headed down a technological cul-de-sac.

First came the remark attributed to Mercedes-Benz engineer Doctor Herbert Kohler during the Frankfurt Motor Show 18 months ago, that the future of diesel looked uncertain beyond the next five to ten years. The Lexus boss also quoted PSA Peugeot Citroen spokesman Jean-Marc Suret in a Bloomberg interview, in which Suret said that Euro 6 would have an impact on vehicle prices.

"Research from London-based analysts at IHS Automotive shows that in the next 15 years, hybrid will account for well over 13 per cent of European passenger vehicle sales -- well up from the current one per cent," Cramb continued, before explaining also that many prestige car manufacturers in Europe were already headed down the path of hybrid-drive system development.

Dr Kohler's remarks were made in the context of promoting the company's own DiesOtto technology, which effectively applies diesel combustion principles to petrol engines and will likely streamline engine production for Mercedes-Benz along one technological avenue.

DiesOtto, which is variously known also as HCCI (Mazda) and CAI (Hyundai/Kia), offers diesel engine efficiencies without the soot or the NOx emissions. Confusingly though, Kia's Dr Joachim Hahn believes that such an engine will fall foul of future emissions regulations, while Mazda believes that the new technology can stay ahead of legislation.

For its part, Lexus and parent company Toyota, see nothing but clear skies ahead for hybrid-drive systems. Even once petrol becomes prohibitively expensive to buy, Toyota will have hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to bring to market and the company's environmental guru, Bill Reinert, has even named a date for the first commercial application of the clean technology: 2015.

And fuel cell vehicles are basically hybrids too -- with the petrol engine replaced by a fuel cell stack.

Personally I don't think Euro 6 will get a guernsey in Australia, Parliament is still debating on whether or not Euro 5 should be implemented.

[Buntz]

The government will do what's right for our industry first...... I hope.

[FG50T]

Crap...BMW already have Euro 6 compatible engines both diesel and petrol. They even make more power.

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by FG50T

Crap...BMW already have Euro 6 compatible engines both diesel and petrol. They even make more power.

Maybe it's this chiefs way of saying... we can't figure it out. So we'd rather fill your car with heavy batteries.

[Joe5619]

Guess which company just lauched a hybrid model?

[gcg2503]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

Guess which company just lauched a hybrid model?

Exackery

[sgt_doofey]

Not to mention that the quality of diesel in Australia is now the same as the Euro diesel based on sulphur content.
I call BS. Just because my diesel car gets better fuel economy than their hybrid and it already had a particulate filter, and it's 5 years old!

[chevypower]

So is lead-acid battery technology. Well I think the comment is pretty much true, but I don't see Toyota/Lexus as having all the answers right now either. One technology I would like to see right now, is hydraulic hybrid which is 300% more efficient than current parallel electric hybrids.

[Bossxr8]

Mercedes have also questioned diesels ability to survive past another decade, as development and unit costs will blow out to make them emissions compliant.

But more of an issue for Toyota as they lag well behind the others in diesel tech, they need to be pushing the hybrid barrow as they have no answers, especially Lexus which does not even compete with the Euro diesels.

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Mercedes have also questioned diesels ability to survive past another decade, as development and unit costs will blow out to make them emissions compliant.

But more of an issue for Toyota as they lag well behind the others in diesel tech, they need to be pushing the hybrid barrow as they have no answers, especially Lexus which does not even compete with the Euro diesels.

Exactly. Toyota's current diesels are built for working... not a refined luxury marque.

[Paxton]

Toyota don't really like Diesel. There is a reason why we don't have a Diesel Corolla, Camry, Rav-4 or Kluger in Australia.

They've put their eggs into their Hybrid basket, which might be foolish, when Australia is embracing Diesel like never before.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by Paxton

Toyota don't really like Diesel. There is a reason why we don't have a Diesel Corolla, Camry, Rav-4 or Kluger in Australia.

They've put their eggs into their Hybrid basket, which might be foolish, when Australia is embracing Diesel like never before.

Maybe when they can make a decent one they might care. But Lexus is trying to push their new Hybrids so its time to discredit cars that have shown up their highly overpriced hybrids.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Paxton

Toyota don't really like Diesel. There is a reason why we don't have a Diesel Corolla, Camry, Rav-4 or Kluger in Australia.

They've put their eggs into their Hybrid basket, which might be foolish, when Australia is embracing Diesel like never before.

They do have a diesel RAV4 in Europe though,
it's smaller than ours, combined = 7.5 l/100km

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by jpd80

They do have a diesel RAV4 in Europe though,
it's smaller than ours, combined = 7.5 l/100km

Yeah I thought the last gen RAV4 had a diesel option. The ones with the little bonnet scoops.

[Bluehoon]

What's wrong with Bio diesel? Use all the cooking oil etc!!!


Wouldn't need emissions gear at all if I'm correct?

Oh - hang on taxes! It's good enough to tax, and offer no alternative???

[Mr Hardware]

I'm just going to put it on record that i'm with toyota and I forsee that diseasel's will be not around for too much longer. They are not the answer to emissions or fuel economy.

[Road_Warrior]

I thought there was a diesel RAV4

[Paxton]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

I thought there was a diesel RAV4

V6 with 200 Killer Wasps or 2.4 4 Cylinder, but not Diesel.

[SSD-85]

along with urea injection

.

So does that mean we have to pee into the tank too?

[GK]

Originally Posted by Scotty85

.

So does that mean we have to pee into the tank too?

Nope, just into the urea injection bottle under the bonnet! LOL!

GK

[SSD-85]

Originally Posted by GK

Nope, just into the urea injection bottle under the bonnet! LOL!

GK

Now that would be an interesting experience;

"Hold on mate, just gotta refill the Urea bottle."

[Ford_The_Win]

Ironic considering some people who drove Lexi are dead too.. I'll take this guy more seriously when his company makes cars that actually stop.

[flappist]

Originally Posted by Ford_The_Win

Ironic considering some people who drove Lexi are dead too.. I'll take this guy more seriously when his company makes cars that actually stop.

Ever driven a Lexus?

Ever driven a Laser or BA XT?

[Barnaby]

Might have something to do with Japan being outpaced by the Europeans in Diesel tech at the moment. When they do go diesel they source from Europe. The Diesels in the Suzuki Viatara & Nissan X-trail are examples here.

But as a long term solution, the clocks ticking on all fuels. Energy storage technology is moving much faster than any fuel engine.

Lithium Ion technology is not heavy and has high energy density. The new Tesla S is a good example of where we are heading.

http://www.teslamotors.com/models

[Mr Hardware]

Looks like diesel is more toxic than pee!

[Iggypoppin']

I'd say diesel is more a thing of the future, than destined for the history books.

[XR Martin]

As said before, Mercedes is already working on a diesel replacement. They are combining the benefits of petrol engines (emissions) and Diesels (efficiency)
Basically a will be part time spark iginition, and part time compression iginition.

If any company has been the leader of technology on vehicles, its Mercedes.

Pretty sure Ford is also working something similar too

[Deco28]

Originally Posted by XR6 Martin

As said before, Mercedes is already working on a diesel replacement. They are combining the benefits of petrol engines (emissions) and Diesels (efficiency)
Basically a will be part time spark iginition, and part time compression iginition.

If any company has been the leader of technology on vehicles, its Mercedes.

Pretty sure Ford is also working something similar too

Yes, it's called HCCI, or Homogenous Charge compression ignition. And at the moment, don't quote me on it, I think GM is leading the way. I remember they had the press media in America test drive so early mules a couple of years back.

It's predicted to improve current petrol's economy 15-20%, which is huge. Bring it so close to the economy of a solid diesel engine.

The way I see it, if petrol engines become smaller, with small high tech twill scroll turbos, advanced ECU mapping, advanced transmissions and are HCCI compatible, there will be no need for diesels. You get all the benefits of a diesel, in an engine that actually revs.

[charles_wif_xf]

Originally Posted by XR6 Martin

As said before, Mercedes is already working on a diesel replacement. They are combining the benefits of petrol engines (emissions) and Diesels (efficiency)
Basically a will be part time spark iginition, and part time compression iginition.

If any company has been the leader of technology on vehicles, its Mercedes.

Pretty sure Ford is also working something similar too

I was reading about this somewhere, for the life of me I can't remember where.

[chevypower]

Originally Posted by XR6 Martin

As said before, Mercedes is already working on a diesel replacement. They are combining the benefits of petrol engines (emissions) and Diesels (efficiency)
Basically a will be part time spark iginition, and part time compression iginition.

If any company has been the leader of technology on vehicles, its Mercedes.

Pretty sure Ford is also working something similar too

Originally Posted by charles_wif_xf

I was reading about this somewhere, for the life of me I can't remember where.

Yes I believe that to be true also, EcoBoost is mostly the way there, with the direct injection and turbocharging benefits, but needs to have the compression ignition also to go all the way. Couple that with hydraulic hybrid technology, and we would be up for a real treat. While I think the long term future should get us off fossil fuels completely, there are some good intermediate technologies ready to be implemented along the way.