Record March 2010 new car sales! - VFACTS

[greens_tuf]

I think the worrying thing is the number of sales of Falcons vs Commodores. Whatever the reasons, it is a big difference...

I know many people have covered this above, but it is still very worrying/confusing.

Also, where are all these cruze sales going? I haven't really seen that many on the roads (thank God!)

[jpd80]

Fleet sales.

Hands up all the people who think the 3.0 SIDI Omega is going to get drilled by the Ecoboost Falcon.
60% of Holden sales are (fleet based) Omegas so if Ford only pinches half of them they will surely
increase Falcon sales by 1200/month without doing anything else.
That is a good business strategy...

And that is before we even consider the sales increase the new Territory and diesel gives,
you watch how that RWD diesel Territory hops in and bites into those Sportwagon sales.
I predict new Territory sales will be back over 2,000/month.

With EB Falcon and new Territory, Broadmeadows could be looking at an increase of nearly 2500/month..

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I predict new Territory sales will be back over 2,000/month.

With EB Falcon and new Territory, Broadmeadows could be looking at an increase of nearly 2500/month..

Ford cannot possibly build that many extra cars even if they had confirmed sales, the line simply cant cope with that volume, nor can the suppliers ramp up that quickly, it will take a long time for Ford to be able to react to incremental increases in demand.... and they only will if they believe they are sustainable.

If Ford can see demand outstripping supply for a sustained period of time they'll put their prices up... its simple economics.

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Fleet sales.

Hands up all the people who think the 3.0 SIDI Omega is going to get drilled by the Ecoboost Falcon.
60% of Holden sales are (fleet based) Omegas so if Ford only pinches half of them they will surely
increase Falcon sales by 1200/month without doing anything else.
That is a good business strategy...

And that is before we even consider the sales increase the new Territory and diesel gives,
you watch how that RWD diesel Territory hops in and bites into those Sportwagon sales.
I predict new Territory sales will be back over 2,000/month.

With EB Falcon and new Territory, Broadmeadows could be looking at an increase of nearly 2500/month..

Brazen's prediction is that EcoBoost will make very little fleet difference. Its more expensive for starters and If fleets want a 4 cylinder they will buy a cheaper Camry or Hybrid Camry or Aussie Cruze, if fleets want an economical Falcon they will get the LiLPG. Where does that leave the EcoBoost?

I also predict that the Sportwagon will continue to eat into sedan sales (Commodore, Falcon, Aurion, Accord, Maxima) and will not be hugely affected by an updated Territory.

I predict that for every 4 sales the Territory gains, 1 will be at the expense of the Falcon - again due to people moving away from sedans, and also due to the Territory value proposition.

I also predict for every 3 sales increase in Mondeo, 1 will be at the expense of Falcon due to diesel engine option and wagon option.

Falcon will continue to move away from its fleet image and conquest a growing number of sales from Honda, Toyota, etc and former SUV buyers who are sick of driving a truck - although the lack of wagon will keep many SUV buyers away as they are used to the utility of a wagon body.

I predict the EcoBoost will hit the mark with a small but affluent number of tech-savvy private buyers who would have never considered an Australian car before.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

Ford cannot possibly build that many extra cars even if they had confirmed sales, the line simply cant cope with that volume, nor can the suppliers ramp up that quickly, it will take a long time for Ford to be able to react to incremental increases in demand.... and they only will if they believe they are sustainable.

If Ford can see demand outstripping supply for a sustained period of time they'll put their prices up... its simple economics.

Incremental increases.
They're product constrained at the moment and selling everything they make,
a volume increase is coming - it has to as sales pick up compared to last year.
Even Burela is saying an increase of 15% this year is likely so that takes last year's
annual from 53,000 up near 60,000 before Ecoboost and new Territory get here.
Now say they add another 15% to sales and you get to 70,000 pa.

I'm prepared to admit my 2,500 figure sounds wild but what if the customer is right?

[big_landau]

im predicting that ford and the falcon will slowly drift out of the top 5,well maybe not that slow.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Brazen

Brazen's prediction is that EcoBoost will make very little fleet difference. Its more expensive for starters and If fleets want a 4 cylinder they will buy a cheaper Camry or Hybrid Camry or Aussie Cruze, if fleets want an economical Falcon they will get the LiLPG. Where does that leave the EcoBoost?

OK, how do you know that a high volume Ecoboost 2.0 in a Falcon
is going to mean the car is more expensive than the I-6?

What makes you think that buyers will chose the LILPG over the Ecoboost 2.0 for fleet work
and before you answer that think carefully about why the 3.0 SIDI Omega outsells the LPG Falcon
in fleet sales. It is relevant and one reason why Ford hasn't cracked fleet sales.

The CO2 output of 2.0EB Vs. SIDI 3.0 Vs LILPG 4.0 puts the EB 2.0 way in front of the other two.
Now a very important consideration for fleet purchasers especially if carbon credits come in.

[Smoke Pursuit]

Originally Posted by greens_tuf

I think the worrying thing is the number of sales of Falcons vs Commodores. Whatever the reasons, it is a big difference...

I know many people have covered this above, but it is still very worrying/confusing.

Also, where are all these cruze sales going? I haven't really seen that many on the roads (thank God!)

Fleets, rentals, govenment are all buying cruzes.. My mates wife just got one as a company car, its a pos, her previous company car was a VZ Commodore, they are downsizing now..

Ford need to build more cars, theres no if, buts or maybes... Theres just not enough stock out there and its hurting them. People will not wait to have cars built anymore, they are impatient and will buy off the floor. Holden have stock piles of cars and can accomodate this.

[russellw]

The Supplementary Statistical Data is now uploaded for viewing.

Cheers
Russ

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Commodore 4209
Ute 1,114
Statesman 49
Caprice 135
Captiva 1,455
Cruze 2125
Barina 1213

Interesting figures for the Statesman there as I heard on the radio today, from a dealer doing his weekly spiel, that he has been given notice by Holden that they are dropping the Statesman later in the year and will only have Caprice.

He also said that the SS sedan will now be sold for $41990 on the road for a manual. Worried about a certain impending launch?

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by russellw

The Supplementary Statistical Data is now uploaded for viewing.

Cheers
Russ

Thanks Russell,
I see the Falcon is up 1,322 sales for the first three months, that's 22% up on 2009 and 2008.
Similarly Ute is down 201 sales but Territory is up 322 sales so another 121 up over 2009.

If that trend keeps up, Ford will convert that 31,000 Falcon sedans into around 38,000
and a combined of roughly 60,000 this year compared to 53,000 in 2009.

[greens_tuf]

Talking about fleet sales, I was listening to a conversation, a friend of mine works for Coca Cola and he said they were going to be changing from the Rav4 to the Commodore(I'm assuming wagon) SIDI because of better "fuel economy".

I didn't even bother starting the "SIDI" argument, whos got the energy anymore lol

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by greens_tuf

Talking about fleet sales, I was listening to a conversation, a friend of mine works for Coca Cola and he said they were going to be changing from the Rav4 to the Commodore(I'm assuming wagon) SIDI because of better "fuel economy".

I didn't even bother starting the "SIDI" argument, whos got the energy anymore lol

Like all large companies they wont investigate anecdotal real world evidence, they'll go off manufacturer claims.
The sportshatch will get 1 update cycle with most fleets, i know Melb water wont be using them again due to poor carry capacity...

[mcnews]

Originally Posted by greens_tuf

Talking about fleet sales, I was listening to a conversation, a friend of mine works for Coca Cola and he said they were going to be changing from the Rav4 to the Commodore(I'm assuming wagon) SIDI because of better "fuel economy".

I didn't even bother starting the "SIDI" argument, whos got the energy anymore lol

Hugely clever move by Holden that was. Even if a load of crap, it worked really well.

[mrbaxr6t]

I have a headache :

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by Adrenaline

The point to take home is, Ford is moving (approximately) $100 million worth of Falcons each month (this is not including ute and Territory sales). The greater the concentration of higher end models that make up the mix, the more money Ford takes home. We could sit around all day and play with make believe numbers for Ford's financials, but it really is a useless exercise, I do commend you for trying though. The only thing I will comment about with your numbers is that the wages are out by a huge margin. The thought that employees from Auto parts suppliers take home $5000 a month is unrealistic, and that accounts for $61 million of your calculations so your end figure of $4000 allowance in materials is grossly understated. 7 million in depreciation also seems a bit much for a monthly figure. I'd have thought that most of the core equipment in that plant would have a life of 10 years easily, which @ 7 million per month depreciation (I'm assuming straight line dep) would value Ford's equipment assets in excess of $800 million.

Just to correct things, I was implying the wage cost of an employee was $5000 per month. Thus someone earning $4200 per month, gets paid $378 superannuation, $210 payroll tax is paid, $150 paid in workcover, and a few other ancillary costs.
$7 million deprecition is a nice low figure. $400 million to develop a car (and these are classified as assets until written off), allows 7 million to be written off each month for 5 years. And then you have to write off the machines and equipment in the plant, if not included in development costs.

[russellw]

We don't normally do them on a monthly basis but the Segment Analysis has now been uploaded for the first quarter.

As there is a lot of work in these we'll try and do them each quarter rather than each month.

Cheers
Russ

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

Like all large companies they wont investigate anecdotal real world evidence, they'll go off manufacturer claims.
The sportshatch will get 1 update cycle with most fleets, i know Melb water wont be using them again due to poor carry capacity...

It's funny you mentioned melb Water. My local trade waste inspector had a VZ wagon and I was wondering what they were going to switch to after Sportwagon release. His cargo area is filled with equipment in specially built containers that fitted within the VZ, which was VY before that and VT before that. Do you know what they are switching to? Maybe a ute with custom canopy?

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by greens_tuf

Talking about fleet sales, I was listening to a conversation, a friend of mine works for Coca Cola and he said they were going to be changing from the Rav4 to the Commodore(I'm assuming wagon) SIDI because of better "fuel economy".

I didn't even bother starting the "SIDI" argument, whos got the energy anymore lol

Thats funny, because I know Toyota fought tooth and nail to get that contract, they got it with first gen Kluger AWDs which replaced the VZ wagons, then they went over to Rav4s, now they are coming back to Commodore wagons again.

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

It's funny you mentioned melb Water. My local trade waste inspector had a VZ wagon and I was wondering what they were going to switch to after Sportwagon release. His cargo area is filled with equipment in specially built containers that fitted within the VZ, which was VY before that and VT before that. Do you know what they are switching to? Maybe a ute with custom canopy?

They're talking either utes with lockable canopy's or Hilux's.... The sportshatch has turned out to be a problem for them and the reps don't like them.

[bobthebilda]

Does anyone know if the Hyundai i30cw (sportswagon) gets included in the i30 numbers, just like the sportswagon gets included in the commodore numbers.

Who would have thought that in a few months time, that Australia's biggest selling car, would be a Hyundai. You might even see a few thousand dollars come of a commodore, just so they dont have to change their advertising (Australia's favorite car)

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

Does anyone know if the Hyundai i30cw (sportswagon) gets included in the i30 numbers, just like the sportswagon gets included in the commodore numbers.

Who would have thought that in a few months time, that Australia's biggest selling car, would be a Hyundai. You might even see a few thousand dollars come of a commodore, just so they dont have to change their advertising (Australia's favorite car)

Yep it gets included, the i30 is one of the only small cars on the market with a wagon (apart from the just released Golf wagon).

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

They're talking either utes with lockable canopy's or Hilux's.... The sportshatch has turned out to be a problem for them and the reps don't like them.

Any chance of Ford getting a contract or do they not slash their prices as much as GMHolden & Toyota?

[Gobes32]

Originally Posted by bfiipursuit

Ford need to build more cars, theres no if, buts or maybes... Theres just not enough stock out there and its hurting them. People will not wait to have cars built anymore, they are impatient and will buy off the floor. Holden have stock piles of cars and can accomodate this.

And that is it in a nutshell. Ford could sell 4000 Falcons a month if they could BUILD them.

[kezzer]

Originally Posted by kezzer

Is there a reference to the 'commo 75% fleet sales' thing I hear all the time? Or is this assumed fact?

Now I hear it's 60%, anyone care to supply reputable sources?

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

They're talking either utes with lockable canopy's or Hilux's.... The sportshatch has turned out to be a problem for them and the reps don't like them.

Thanks.

[snappy]

Originally Posted by kezzer

Now I hear it's 60%, anyone care to supply reputable sources?

Its on here somwhere there was a article with a breakdown of ford/holden breakdown of sales .
It was the same article that we found out the xt was ford slowest selling car as g6 was the fastest/best seller .

[bobthebilda]

I heard that the United Nations have secretly informed most of the major car firms to stop producing cars in the southern hemisphere.

Apparantly studies have shown that the earth only weighs 5,973,700,000,000 billion tonnes, and countries in the southern hemisphere (Australia, Brazil, african countries), are exporting 5 billion tonnes of coal, iron ore and other products to northern hemsphere countries each year. Along with the extra weight being added by buildings in developing countries like china and india, and population explosions, and the weight of Antartica decreasing due to ice melt, and brazil due to deforestation, they are starting to see larger than normal magnetic pole shifts..

Thus one way they have decided to decrease this imbalance, is to produce all cars in the northern hemisphere, and export them to the southern hemisphere. All Australian and south african car production will cease before end of 2011, and south american will cease by end of 2012.

[fordv8!]

are these worrying figures or does ford make a good profit on those numbers, i cant believe people are buying the ve hopefully sales pick up when coyotte released ive heard a lot of guys say they bought a ss because its faster then xr8 but we all know that can be missleading i get the feeling ford lose a lot of sales that way

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by fordv8!

are these worrying figures or does ford make a good profit on those numbers, i cant believe people are buying the ve hopefully sales pick up when coyotte released ive heard a lot of guys say they bought a ss because its faster then xr8 but we all know that can be missleading i get the feeling ford lose a lot of sales that way

Look, Holden people are that devoted they would buy whatever Holden put in front of them.
There's no point in getting bent and twisted with what the other guy is or isn't doing.

All that matters is we have a Euro IV Falcon with I-6 and ZF 6-speed auto on all petrol engines,
imagining that a couple of years ago would have been most supporters wildest dream...
We should be savoring this moment as Falcon edges up a notch, getting better with every update...