Dowling reckons End of road for Falcon and Commodore in 2016

[Bobman]

Dowling at it again.

http://www.carsguide.com.au/news-and...modore_in_2016

* Holden will continue to manufacture cars to at least 2022
* Ford likely to shut its factories by the end of 2016
* Holden reviewing small- and medium-car plans, considering SUV

Australia's big car icons almost certain to be phased out.
The two icons of the Australian car industry – the Ford Falcon and Holden Commodore – are almost certain to be phased out within months of each other at the end of 2016, marking the end of a battle that has lasted more than half a century.

[flappist]

This is a another dowl-ribble so do not take it as factual.

Remember in the 1980s when "there will be no V8 falcons or commodores in the future"........

[BLU-220]

Wonder if Mr. Dowling knows my boss

[BroadyFord]

Mid-January... it's that time of the year again when we see these doom and gloom stories.

[TC200six]

At least he isn't singling out the Falcon.

[Kryton]

Originally Posted by flappist

This is a another dowl-ribble so do not take it as factual.

Remember in the 1980s when "there will be no V8 falcons or commodores in the future"........

And remind us again how long you couldnt buy a V8 Falcon for...........

[flappist]

Originally Posted by Kryton

And remind us again how long you couldnt buy a V8 Falcon for...........

Two models XF & EA until they realised that the market was not going in the direction they thought. But they did not go away for ever and I suspect Ford learned a lesson from it.

[tweeked]

If he wasn't right, all Ford would have to release is "we will be producing out of Broady after 2016 - exactly what we will confirm at a later date"

But they keep running the "we have not decided" line. WHich make me think they have, and he is right. Sad.

[flappist]

Originally Posted by tweeked

If he wasn't right, all Ford would have to release is "we will be producing out of Broady after 2016 - exactly what we will confirm at a later date"

But they keep running the "we have not decided" line. WHich make me think they have, and he is right. Sad.

Just wondering, when you play cards do you show the other players what you are holding just in case some random passer by thinks you may lose the hand?

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by flappist

Just wondering, when you play cards do you show the other players what you are holding just in case some random passer by thinks you may lose the hand?

no, But if I am thinking of cashing in I dont let everyone know either.

I am not saying they are doing the wrong thing, they are doing what they have to do to get the best commercial result.

[stevz]

Originally Posted by flappist

Just wondering, when you play cards do you show the other players what you are holding just in case some random passer by thinks you may lose the hand?

As tweeked said, they don't have to release detailed product plans, all they have to do is state that they will be continuing production at Broadmeadows post 2016, in the same way that Holden have committed to 2022. IMO they are causing far more damage to the brand by keeping quiet and all they are doing is giving the media articles credibility.

[GTP534]

A friend sent me 2 photos of the Daily Telegraph of Saturday 5th January yesterday. They're too big to post here but Dowling tests the HSV GTS and the R-Spec. Interesting read and at the end he gives a narrow victory to the R-Spec. Might be in Carsguide.

Back on topic, I don't think too much about what Ford might do, no point in worrying about it. A change of government might have more influence.

[BroadyFord]

I reckon that if they don't say anything about Broady by the end of the year, then it's all over for Ford's Aussie manufacturing ops.

[flappist]

Originally Posted by tweeked

no, But if I am thinking of cashing in I dont let everyone know either.

I am not saying they are doing the wrong thing, they are doing what they have to do to get the best commercial result.

Correct. But you don't always cash in just because you are thinking about it either.

In the big picture, Falcon will stop in 2016 or it will not. Even if it does you can still buy a new Falcon right now, next year, the year after and the year after that.

You can also buy a 10 year old second hand falcon right up until 2026.

Rather than constantly worrying about an event that may or may not happen and even if it does will not affect the majority here for a decade just go with the flow and see what happens.

If you ARE really worried about the future of Falcon there is really only one thing you can do, BUY A NEW FALCON.
If all the members of AFF bought a new Falcon every 5 years instead an old one it would make a HUGE difference to the market.
Constant whinging will make NO difference whatsoever.

Yes new Falcons are expensive, you would pay about the same for a new XT as you would for a 5 year old GT or F6 or the same for a new XR6/G6 as a 3 year old GT or F6.
But are you trully interested in the future of Falcon or do you just want to buy a cheap second hand one at the lowest possible price and let others buy new ones?

Dowling is a harbinger of doom. If, rather than going off like a pork chop in the sun crying "the sky is falling", everyone just disputed and lampooned him whenever possible his editors would push him in other directions.

Of course this would also reduce the bandwith needed for the forum and remove the major reason why some are members here........

[Road_Warrior]

Why would Ford spend all this money and engineering effort for the 2014 Falcon to stop making it after only 2 years? Stupid Dowlface needs some more Twitter bombs.

[Bobman]

I'm happy to put money on Falcon still being around after 2016 in one way or another.

[turbodewd]

I believe Australia can definitely support one large car. Falcon and Commo sales combined for Fed govt, private punters, police, etc

[Kable72]

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm sick and tired of this **** coming up over and over again. The only reason that this gets published all the time is because people read it. Boycott it and don't read it.

[Rodge]

I think its worth highlighting that Ford have confirmed production through to the end of 2016, i.e. 31 December 2016, that's just on four years confirmed. What business outlines their plans further out than that ?

[Sioso]

When and if they do cease production Joshua Dowling will have nothing to write about.
He will be looking for a new job also.

[ltd]

Joshua Dowling is the quintessential Tim Flannery of the automotive world.

[turbodewd]

Originally Posted by BLOWN.GTP

When and if they do cease production Joshua Dowling will have nothing to write about.
He will be looking for a new job also.

Well newspapers are going the way of the dodo and the digital media for News Ltd and Fairfax isnt as lucrative, esp with competition. JDowling may not have a job in a few yrs and probably is on very unremarkable salary. Hes bitter against Ford n Holden coz he cant buy a new one!

[roushfenway]

Fair enough Joshua Dowling making some prognostications about Holden - as the boss was interviewed and quoted in Detroit. But there's nothing new or revelationary about anything from the Ford perspective. Nothing's been said - nothing's changed since yesterday or last week - so it's a beat-up. He's taken some quotes from the Holden boss and concocted a story that will grab headlines at a slow news time of the year.

[Smoke Pursuit]

Its amazing some of the comments left.... People are so ill informed about both the Commodore and Falcon... World class cars that have been left behind simply because neither (more so Ford) know how to market a car.

Falcon Ecoboost is the greatest example, no one knows about a 4 cylinder Falcon, all they go on about is bogan petrol drinking bombs...

Time the manufacturers started to give some real world examples / comparisons. I know Ford did a commercial on the LPI LPG Falcon when it came out comparing it to Corolla, time they did that again and perhaps with Ecoboost... do a 0 - 100 comparison, fuel usage comparison, and spare part comparison and we will see which car wins overall.

[EVLKNEVL]

I remember this article from not very long ago:

http://www.carsguide.com.au/news-and...uring_not_dead

It's amusing to watch. Ford Australia (understandably) does and says nothing to hint at their plans, and this completely befuddles Joshua Dowling to the extent that he writes two completely contradictory articles which are derived from the same set of facts and presumptions.

I don't know of any other job you could have and be that fecklessly awful at it and still be expected to come back the following Monday. We should all be grateful that he's not a heart surgeon or something.

[Road_Warrior]

Dowling has now blocked me on Twitter.

This is pretty juvenile I must say and demonstrates that he is not willing to be accountable for the things he says. Being in the press, your comments are up for public scrutiny whether you like it or not, and if you don't like that, then you're in the wrong profession or you should stop publishing crap. His actions in blocking responses to his tweets are attempting to suppress open discussion not only on what he writes, but the subject matter of it.

Don't be shy guys, get stuck in.

[Nikked]

Originally Posted by tweeked

If he wasn't right, all Ford would have to release is "we will be producing out of Broady after 2016 - exactly what we will confirm at a later date"

But they keep running the "we have not decided" line. WHich make me think they have, and he is right. Sad.

HAve they done anything different over the past? its still 4-5 years away...they ain't going to come out now with a public plan.


The "we have not decided" line is just that...they'll have a better idea come the end of 2014...

[Nikked]

His artical got blasted on FB when Carsguide posted up a link...

[2011G6E]

Whole different world now to back in the eighties when V8's disappeared from Fords lineup. All that saved Ford was the availability of overseas engines that met new emissions requirements.

Wait until the next round of emissions standards come in...I think they'll be based on the CAFE stuff in the USA.
Here's a news item about the forward planning for the CAFE figures...still think there'll be hulking great V8's made then...?
http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars...andard-by-2025

It's official. After a long and contentious battle, the government and automakers have settled on the new 2025 Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations that will begin taking effect in 2017.

At a ceremony today in Washington, D.C., President Obama announced that the new CAFE standards for vehicle fleets will be 54.5 mpg by 2025. The increase piggybacks Obama's 2009 mandate for a CAFE average of 35.5 by 2016 and is the largest mandatory fuel economy increase in history. The standard is just shy of the 56.2 mpg average that the Obama administration was considering just a month ago (though not nearly as ambitious as the 62 mpg target the government floated at one time).

The ambitious new standards have encountered strong opposition from automakers, who suggest that the rules will mean large increases in cars' sticker prices. But, as part of the announcement (where the CEOs of the Detroit big three and several foreign automakers were in attendance), Obama said that consumers would save an average of $8000 per vehicle in reduced fuel costs once the regulations are in full effect in 2025.


Read more: Obama Announces 54.5 mpg CAFE Standard by 2025 - Popular Mechanics

Yes...they will save money each year on fuel...assuming they buy the right car and give up one that uses more fuel.

[BroadyFord]

By far the most depressingly negative article I've seen on the Falcon speculation thus far. It basically reads as though Ford have already announced an end to production!

A race to the finish for Ford and Holden?


http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/...rd-and-holden/

Mark Twain had the bizarre pleasure of reading his own obituary. It would be a salutary experience.

The obit for Australian car manufacturing, however, has the aspect of a soap opera. It’s been running for years with the same grinding inevitability and fading stars.

Rumours that the death have of those one-time Strayan icons – Ford’s Falcon and Holden’s Commodore – have not in fact been exaggerated were confirmed today at the Detroit motor show. Once the champions in the two-horse race that was the local new car stakes, both nameplates will be sent to the knackery in 2016 (or at best be assigned to imported American models).

In the case of the Falcon particularly, the announcement is in the manner of a mercy killing. Though heavily subsidised and discounted it sputtered to a miserable 14,000 sales in 2012. The single best-selling model of the year, the ubiquitous Mazda3 small car, did more than 44,000.

Perhaps more tellingly, the fallen local hero was left behind by the Thai-made Ford Focus, an excellent small car festooned with clever equipment, imported under the free trade agreement.

Adieu too to the Territory SUV that is based on and built alongside the Falcon. Just as the Falcon is displaced by the Yank made Taurus, the only home-made SUV is deleted for the Explorer as Ford becomes a full importer.

It’s only slightly less surprising that the writing for the Commodore has moved from the wall to the tombstone.

The Commodore lost 25 per cent of its sales last year, slumping to a historic low of 30,000. This, coming barely after Holden said 320 jobs are in jeopardy at its V6 engine making plant, is hardly an auspicious introduction to next month’s new, more upmarket VF Commodore.

There is a sense of relief that the pretence is finally over. Certainly American auto executives won’t miss their annual Detroit hazing by Australian journalists determined to extract some crumb as to the future of cars assembled in Melbourne and Adelaide.

The question is, while this marks the end of something, does it signify the beginning of something else?

Holden has committed to local manufacture until 2022, but surely that is contingent on succeeding in the world’s most feverishly competitive new car market, one in which 60 brands vie for one million sales.

Holden will bolt together a second vehicle at its Elizabeth plant from 2017, almost certainly a compact SUV. But that market segment is almost as overpopulated as the small car area in which Holden’s respectable, but far from class-leading, Cruze lost sales last year.

If the odds are stacked against a buyer led recovery for Holden, it will be a courageous government of the day that forks over further taxpayer millions to subsidise the manufacture of cars that aren’t selling sufficiently.

Then it will be a case administering the last rites.

Paul Pottinger is editor of News Limited’s Carsguide.