All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years in twin ‘death spirals’ for big oil and big autos

[Ben73]

How many cars on the road are more than 8 years olds?
You really think all people who can only afford cars for a few grand are going to buy a new car within the next 8 years?
Not gonna happen.
I doubt any self driving Uber is going to be cheap enough within 8 years to encourage all the poor drivers into Uber. Not to mention people who live outside of town.

[yearby]

I see that the goal of the electric car industry is for the battery to have a range of 300 miles. I suppose that my be suited to central city traffic which is mostly stop start. But my Hilux has a range of 900 miles and it can some times take me 2 to 3 hours just to drive to a fuel station, 300 mile range just will not cut it.

Let's say "hypothetically in the future" that the internal combustion efficiency is increased to say 90% instead of my diesels 45%, that means my Hilux would have a range of 1800 miles and all of a sudden the electric vehicle with a 300 mile range is not in the race.
Also consider that the more electric vehicles on the road the more petrol there is available, so petrol(gasoline) will be very cheap.

So in my way of thinking, the internal combustion engine will still be with us for awhile.

As for the oil industry going down the toilet, I don't think that's going to happen either.

One of the future scientific developments coming is the carbon Nano-tube.
Carbon Nano-tubes are extremely light weight and extremely strong, far superior to steel and would be in very high demand as a building material, everything from cars to bridges to what ever, even space elevators. It's that strong. Now carbon Nano-tube will need a lot of carbon at the same levels of production as say the iron ore that it will replace. Where is the be supply of carbon to come from, Okay, with out cutting down every tree on the planet, my guess would be oil !

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by solarite_guy

There were 2 principle people working together to invent the first Lithium-Ion battery. A Dr. Goodenough was one of those people.

Currently, he is working with a team at the University of Texas on a battery with performance characteristics which will, for all intents and purposes make Lithium-Ion obsolete. It is a solid state battery which incorporates glass and uses Sodium in place of Lithium. It can use Lithium, but the graphs I've seen Sodium provides better performance.

Along with existing salt mines, we have Oceans and seas with incredible amounts of Sodium.

Advantages of the new Goodenough solid state battery over Lithium-Ion include:

• 3 times the energy density
• Charges in minutes, not hours
• Can discharge at a higher rate, if needed
• Can go through many more charge, discharge cycles
• Will not explode
• Will not catch on fire

I am sure something else beyond that battery will pop up at some point as well.

Originally Posted by OzriderXR8

I watched a doco recently that showed a dry lake bed in Bolivia or similar at 5000ft altitude. Apparently it has enough Lithium in it to power current demand for about a 1000 years, factor in electric cars etc. they reckon this single lake can supply demand for 100's of years.

And battery technology is only in it's infancy.....

I'll bet the oil companies and oil producing countries already own huge chunks of it.

'Cars That Rock' with Brian Johnson from AC/DC (the new guy ) showed a VW concept Hybrid that can do 300 mile to the imperial gallon.....electric with a small diesel. That's around 1 litre per 100klms.

10 years from now we'll have Hybrids that can do that as production cars.

Great posts, will help with more research on it.

If the sodium solid state batteries prove fruitful, the changes are going to be profound and come fast. The autonomous vehicles, reduction in both car ownership and driving occupations - these will too. Might as well roll with it, and take the V8 out for enjoyment every now and then. Anyone see the start of the Star Trek movie with the Corvette and the kid.... hahaha!

Slightly off topic: I hadn't really kept up with the space and NASA scene for a while, but it appears President Trump has ordered MAGA in space exploration and allocated funding, so we're looking at manned Mars missions early 2030s now.... all hands on deck, they are working fast toward this. I had consoled myself that NASA wouldn't soar so high as it once did with the Apollo program, but this is a great & welcome surprise.

Over 40 entirely new technologies are being created to enable the missions, including the SLS and Orion craft. This is seriously exciting, it was before my lifetime when the massive Saturn V's were taking us to new limits. The achievements in the news are going to be incredible.

[barnz_xr8]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

The fundamental problem is that tertiary education has become a cash-cow for anybody that wants to call themselves a "University."
Sucking at this humongus government teat are the so-called "academics," who now days are mostly nothing more than parasites. And its a huge mutual-admiration society, where the measure of success is getting published. So doing any actually valuable research or (heaven forbid) teaching students doesn't count for anything, you need to get your name in print, and more and more this is becoming about mainstream media.

And unfortunately its driven by the fallacy of discovery.
Put simply, somebody who conducts thorough and valid research that produces no result or proves no link, gets no publicity or recognition. Similarly, somebody that adds to existing knowledge or understanding, gets very little.
But sample 10 ten people, and claim to have proven a link between brain tumours and masturbation, and you will make headlines.

It's additionally unfortunate that with more and more recognition being given to "celebrity academics" who achieve mainstream recognition, that the sexier or more publicly controversial your theory, the more recognition you receive.

When considering the latest offerings, I am reminded of the classic Monty Python sketch, where they strive to outdo each other with their tales of hardship: "We had to work 27 hour days, got to bed at 5am, woke up 3 hours before we went to sleep, walked 100 miles up a mountain to the arsenic mine where we paid a shilling a day for the privilege of being beaten."
So to academics must strive to make their claims and theories more outlandish than those published last month:
"All fossil fuels will have completely disappeared by last year, and we will be forced to run to work barefoot, and naked, powered by miniature nuclear-reactors plugged directly into our ani."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAdlkunflRs

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Ben73

How many cars on the road are more than 8 years olds?
You really think all people who can only afford cars for a few grand are going to buy a new car within the next 8 years?

All my vehicles are more that 24 years old cause I like old stuff, certainly nothing with a computer in it.
In 8 years time I'll buy a horse and sulky.

[aussiblue]

In 8 years time I'll buy a horse and sulky.

And sit in the fast lane in protest? Like this:

http://video.dailymail.co.uk/preview...0610390587.mp4


.

[roKWiz]

Would be interesting to see the self drive stuff scatter cause it detected an obstacle.

[Ford17]

There are 3 brand new, decent-sized service stations which have opened/are opening on Beaudesrt Road near work here, all within a km so apart.

Can't imagine they would be planning to amortise their investment over only 8 years.

[GASWAGON]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Would be interesting to see the self drive stuff scatter cause it detected an obstacle.

Thers going to be an article on 'Catalyst' next week about these STUPID self driving cars......Will be very interesting.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by CoolBFWagon

Thers going to be an article on 'Catalyst' next week about these STUPID self driving cars......Will be very interesting.

Did see Catalyst last week on some of this. I didn't realise there were 5 levels of self driving vehicles.
Sounds like its going to be quite awhile before it gets to level 5.

[GCRXR6]

Don't worry about it guys. When The Master Apprentice and Little Rocket Man finish with each other, we wont be driving anything.

[xtremerus]

Producing the massive amount of electricity to replace oil/petrol vehicles with electric is the elephant in the room.
Battery technology may be leaper forward, but you still need to charge it first.

[reds89]

where are we going to get the electricity to charge all these electric cars,if there not hybrids and full electric is the way to go,electricty companies will have a field day with pricing and supply,what supply you say.

[zipping]

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/1...rop_tax_break/

Tesla's share price took a dive Thursday morning as Republicans in Congress revealed they were planning to kill off a US federal tax credit for electric vehicles.

The proposed House tax bill calls for an immediate repeal of the $7,500-per-vehicle credit: something that would have an immediate knock-on impact for Tesla given that it only produces electric cars.

Its share price fell more than seven per cent to about $296 apiece from Wednesday's $321. The draft law emerged as the Elon-Musk-led automaker announced its worst-ever quarter, recording a $671m loss and admitting it had not met its production target for its new Model 3 car, producing just 220 of them against its 1,500 target.


Economists believe that the tax credit is a key driver for electric car sales, and cite the example of when the state of Georgia cut its $5,000 tax credit and saw sales of electric cars slump from 1,400 a month to just 100 a month in response.

As an indication of how the $7,500 helps Tesla sell more of its vehicles, it even incorporates the figure into its pricing on its website, noting that the total vehicle cost is reduced thanks to the break – although you would still pay full price for the car and then would need to claim the credit back on your tax forms.

Blueprint
The bill itself – which still has to make its way through Congress and is essentially a blueprint for the Trump administration's tax shakeups – would kill off the electric vehicle break on the final day of this year.

Scrapping the leccy car deal will increase US tax revenues by $4bn, it is estimated. That's a good saving seeing as the Republicans are desperate to balance America's books while cutting things like the corporate tax rate.


Tesla hits Model 3 production speed bumps, slides to loss
READ MORE
Under the process the Republicans intend to use to pass their tax reform bill, it is necessary for the country's figures to balance – any cuts have to be met with additional tax income. So far, the plan is expected to cost the Land of the Free $1.5tr over 10 years.

As such, those behind the plan either have to find additional income, reduce their planned cuts, or take a different tack altogether, while bagging sufficient support from the Democrats to get the whole shebang approved. In short, anything in the current plan that increases tax revenue is unlikely to pulled out.

It's not just Tesla that will be hard hit by the removal of the federal tax credit: General Motors has been pushing its Chevy Bolt electric car, and under California state law, it is required to sell a certain percentage of electric cars each year or effectively pay for not doing so by purchasing green credits.

GM said in a statement following the news: "Tax credits are an important customer benefit that can help accelerate the acceptance of electric vehicles. Because General Motors believes in an all-electric future, we will work with Congress to explore ways to maintain this incentive."

Tesla has yet to respond – even though the markets have already

[ESPJG32]

well guys I have decided that all these electric cars are a good thing,,,,but not for the reasons you think
you see I have decided at my age I think the petrol will run out about when I peg out so I am determined to use every bit of my share of the petrol and if these electric guys stop using fuel, I am happy to use up their share as well....so if its a race to the end of the petrol, my V8's will be doing their best to drink as much as possible.......so lets get as many as possible into coal fired power station fueled electric cars and we get their share to use as well...!!!!

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by ESPJG32

well guys I have decided that all these electric cars are a good thing,,,,but not for the reasons you think
you see I have decided at my age I think the petrol will run out about when I peg out so I am determined to use every bit of my share of the petrol and if these electric guys stop using fuel, I am happy to use up their share as well....so if its a race to the end of the petrol, my V8's will be doing their best to drink as much as possible.......so lets get as many as possible into coal fired power station fueled electric cars and we get their share to use as well...!!!!

When there is less oil burners & more electric cars used on roads oil production will be wound down and that means more expensive fuel and higher taxes.
No winners for guys like you.

[solarite_guy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3P4LUt0qcX8

[ESPJG32]

No better way to SKI....[Spending Kids Inheritance]....happy to go old disgracefully.....nothing like the smell of burnt Avgas in a V8 in the morning,,,

[Sprintey]

Hmmm, I'm sharing that V8 experience with the kid now... it's magic... the car will be part of the inheritance - it's been requested! - give forward ftw... different generational approach evident here...