Australia housing bubble

[Bossxr8]

The cost of land is part of the problem I reckon. The land for the house i'm building atm is worth about 45% of the total cost of the house and land.

Does anyone know how that compares to what it used to be in the past?

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Mercury Bullet

The one advantage we had I will concede is cities were much smaller places back then and the outskirts weren't so far away.

1 advantage which is the most critical for many to overcome regardless of how it is downplayed by those who avoided it.

Take leesa, she has admitted that due to her situation her work prevents her from moving out to the fringes which means she either forgoes the opportunity or reskills and looks for work and a future away from family in regional settings.
This is my point, whereas people in their 50's could just buy 3 suburbs over from family where it was affordable for a starter when they started out, todays kids need to look 300kms away, that right there is not equal never mind the mathematics of the equation.

Now im not saying its impossible or that no one makes it happen, it is what it is and unavoidable if thats your lot, but nothing annoys me more than when people who got in before the boom downplay the situation and pretend that every kid who wants to make a go of it cant because they want to live within spitting distance of kirribilli house.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by FTE217

you've been waiting for me...

Not at all fella, but i persisted with my questioning with regards to those who you claim are on the verge of taking the plunge because, and this may seem arrogant to you, but i already knew the answer because it doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure out that a couple in their mid to late 20's who've been saving their ****s off for a decade wouldnt be able to do that if kids were a concern, i know, i've been there and seen many others too.
But that didnt fit the narrative of how you know someone who's made it happen so everyone should be able to do it if they work hard and save even harder so you avoided that one part of my original question and when you finally came clean, hey presto, im correct, go figure.

Consider this..
On my shelf is a photograph of a family of 5 generations all of which were home owners throughout their lives and obviously raised kids in them, the eldest is 90, the next 69, the next 49, the next 27 and the youngest 6, all of them except the youngest had kids in their early 20's.
If the current and future generations have to scrimp and save and go without kids for an extra 10yrs until their late 20's/early 30's just to buy a house the same photograph would require the eldest to be 130, the next 99, the next 69, the next 37 for the youngest to be 6 now.

Whats the likelyhood of that photograph ever happening..

Now to some people not having kids is fine, some people just cant and thats sad enough, but if people, and im not saying those you know necessarily, in their mid 20's have to make a decision between having kids or saving their ****s off, then something is very wrong with the lucky country.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Mercury Bullet

Cheaper housing is readily available. What has changed is people refusing to start at the bottom. Plenty of 3-400k housing if you want it.

Not in Sydney. Sub-400k 3br sees you looking in places like Marulan (closer to Goulburn than Syd) or Oberon (closer to Bathurst).

How many are happy to bring up their families in 3 bedroom 1 bathroom houses these days?

Where can you even get one? Those sorts of homes are older. Older = established area = closer to metro = $$$$$$$. Which leaves new estates on Sydney's outskirts, and the land is $300-400k, let alone the house.

The one advantage we had I will concede is cities were much smaller places back then and the outskirts weren't so far away.

And houses being 3x cheaper as a proportion of income... but hey, why let facts get in the way of a good rant. That's two pretty significant advantages.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Mercury Bullet

Cheaper housing is readily available. What has changed is people refusing to start at the bottom. Plenty of 3-400k housing if you want it.

this sums it up.

$3-400k is now considered 'cheap' housing

if that doesn't tell you how messed up housing is in Australia, then nothing will.

The simple fact is, housing prices have increased at an exponentially higher rate than wages, as has the cost of living.

I bought my first house in 1998 and consider myself very fortunate that I was able to buy a house before the mining boom caused it to go stupid. I paid $92k.

i'm not going to pretend that a 21yr old today could afford their own home just as easily as I could. I didn't do it easy, mind you. I was an apprentice, but the cost of the house was about 2.5 times my annual income. That is a heck of a lot easier than what the situation is these days.

Factor in unemployment levels etc, and anyone who thinks young people these days aren't worse off when it comes to trying to get in to the housing market is in denial.

[prydey]

on a slight tangent, and probably not a popular one, personally i'm not a fan of people owning more than one house for 'investment' purposes. I don't mind people having a 'holiday' home, or another place they actually use from time to time for their own enjoyment, but apart from that, i'm not a fan.

its just greed and selfishness to me, but I must stress, that is just my opinion. prices are largely driven by supply v demand, and when demand outstrips supply, the prices go up.

if everyone only owned the house they live in, supply would be plentiful, and the prices would reflect that. its a simplistic view, granted, but that's the way I see it.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Mercury Bullet

I love how us over 50 get accused of buying in cheap, beating the boom yada, yada.

Cheaper housing is readily available. What has changed is people refusing to start at the bottom. Plenty of 3-400k housing if you want it.

Someone hit the nail on the head earlier with their friends buying lifestyle homes and now being trapped.

How many are happy to bring up their families in 3 bedroom 1 bathroom houses these days?
Must have the inner city mcmansion...now!

The one advantage we had I will concede is cities were much smaller places back then and the outskirts weren't so far away.

Yep, a quick search shows this to be the case.

https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/be...ocation-search

[b0son]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Yep, a quick search shows this to be the case.

So suddenly, 300-400k is out, you've searched for 0-500k, and 3br homes are no longer a requirement... one of the hits on the first page is a flapping holiday cabin!!

Maybe next time don't do a quick search, but a relevant one....

[theunfairadvant]

Housing Bubbles can never ever happening in Australia, house price in Australia doubles every 7 to 10 years and that is a fact
doesn't matter you like it or not.

A lot of people is thinking of owning their own house and keep saving for it which is a wrong way of thinking in the first place.
They should have bought the investment property first then another then
another and sit on it for a few years for capital growth then telling the
Bank that they want to do a reno on the kitchen and bathroom.

Then refinance and draw down on the extra equity on all their
investment properties and put a big chunk of deposit on the PPOR.

This way they will be able to pay off their home loan in half the time rather than the hard slog of 30 yrs.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Yep, a quick search shows this to be the case.

https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/be...ocation-search

https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/be...ocation-search

Whoops! Forgot Central Coast and Blue Mountains as well. So that's North West Sydney, South West Sydney, Western Sydney, Sutherland, Central Coast and Lower Blue Mountains. Over 2000 assorted houses, flats and town houses.

Some may question the reach but I've worked with people in Sydney CBD for 25 years who happily travel 90 minutes each day down from Hazelwood or The Entrance. Cripes, I'm only 7 km from the CBD and it takes me 50 minutes

So, there are options.

[jpblue1000]

Lets not forget the extra burden that superannuation and hecs places on younger peoples ability to save and purchase. Since '92 9% of our remuneration diverted to savings before we get to spend it on housing and about to raise to 12% Then depending on what you earn if you didnt get free education post high school, you have another 10%ish slog to your mortgage repayment opportunity.
While these payments are sensible and somewhat fair at face value, they do affect some generations more than others.
With tax included about 50% of my annual remuneration package was spent before I received it last time I worked in Australia.
JP

[Franco Cozzo]

For those Gen Y/Z wanting to get into the property market, might be time to forget Melbourne and Sydney - I can't speak for Sydney, but Melbourne is chock full of reffos who are violent scumbags from some crappy African country flooding our inner northern, western and south eastern suburbs or Chinese people buying into our housing market pricing locals out of the market - and its lost its identity.

I work in Melbourne's inner northern suburbs, which is a 62km drive for me, I spend anywhere from 50 minutes to 2 hours (and its always closer to the 2 hour end on the way home) getting to and from work, paying for a toll road that jams up Monday-Friday to get to a crappy industrial area where people are paying 7 figures for some 50 year old run down shanty apartment right next to some houso apartment complex chock full of Sudos where I've come across used syringes on the footpath, we've been robbed at work a few times and the local cafe gets smashed up what seems like every week.

We're talking about a city with virtually no infrastructure investments for the last two decades, is having 120,000 people a year jammed into it and is tipped to become Australia's largest city and overtake Sydney:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...897d102a40cc10

If you're a simpleton like me without any decent qualifications and you can land a job on similar coin in Adelaide you'd be laughing all the way to the bank, housing is much cheaper, the food in some parts is just as good as anything Melbourne has at 1/2-2/3rds the cost and the city is an absolute breeze to drive around, you can cross the city in 20-30 minutes and you're not paying tolls for the privilege.

You know if you were working retail in Adelaide you'd be working somewhat 'normal' hours thanks to the lack of late night shopping and probably getting the same coin as you were in Melbourne.

Sure it doesn't have our night life, but believe me nothing good happens after 12AM

[b0son]

Originally Posted by theunfairadvant

Housing Bubbles can never ever happening in Australia, house price in Australia doubles every 7 to 10 years and that is a fact

house prices didn't double at all relative to inflation until 1950. from 1950 to 2000, not adjusted for inflation, house prices doubled every 16 years. the government them brought in changes to CGT, at which point, from 2000 to 2010 they doubled.

our prices are tracking the classic asset bubble graph quite nicely, its simply a question of WHEN we fall over the cliff...

http://www.prosper.org.au/2013/05/14/everyone-knows/

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

For those Gen Y/Z wanting to get into the property market, might be time to forget Melbourne and Sydney - I can't speak for Sydney, but Melbourne is chock full of reffos who are violent scumbags from some crappy African country flooding our inner northern, western and south eastern suburbs or Chinese people buying into our housing market pricing locals out of the market - and its lost its identity.

I work in Melbourne's inner northern suburbs, which is a 62km drive for me, I spend anywhere from 50 minutes to 2 hours (and its always closer to the 2 hour end on the way home) getting to and from work, paying for a toll road that jams up Monday-Friday to get to a crappy industrial area where people are paying 7 figures for some 50 year old run down shanty apartment right next to some houso apartment complex chock full of Sudos where I've come across used syringes on the footpath, we've been robbed at work a few times and the local cafe gets smashed up what seems like every week.

We're talking about a city with virtually no infrastructure investments for the last two decades, is having 120,000 people a year jammed into it and is tipped to become Australia's largest city and overtake Sydney:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...897d102a40cc10

If you're a simpleton like me without any decent qualifications and you can land a job on similar coin in Adelaide you'd be laughing all the way to the bank, housing is much cheaper, the food in some parts is just as good as anything Melbourne has at 1/2-2/3rds the cost and the city is an absolute breeze to drive around, you can cross the city in 20-30 minutes and you're not paying tolls for the priviledge.

Sure it doesn't have our night life, but believe me nothing good happens after 12AM

Racist!

[au350hp]

All of my family has done the same thing. Worked bloody hard, gone without & sacrificed, bought their first house in a sh*t suburb, kept working, sold it in 10 years, move to a better suburb & work until the mortgage is reasonable, and then around age 50, start to enjoy the fruits of your labour. If you spend $20 mon-fri on coffee and lunch, it is $5000 per year. Nothing beats hard work & savings, it isn't very popular these days but it works and has never failed anyone I know. Nothing has changed that much if you really look at each generations issues except one thing, kids these days in Australia haven't grown up with world wars and depressions which affect many for years afterward and that can only be a good thing.

One thing about this debate is obvious and that's who is paying rent Vs a mortgage.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Racist!

I identify as a nonbinary black lesbian, therefore I can not be racist nor sexist - off with your white privilege!

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/be...ocation-search

Whoops! Forgot Central Coast and Blue Mountains as well. So that's North West Sydney, South West Sydney, Western Sydney, Sutherland, Central Coast and Lower Blue Mountains. Over 2000 assorted houses, flats and town houses.

Some may question the reach but I've worked with people in Sydney CBD for 25 years who happily travel 90 minutes each day down from Hazelwood or The Entrance. Cripes, I'm only 7 km from the CBD and it takes me 50 minutes

So, there are options.

A similar search of Melbourne environs throws up over 4000 properties.

[pottery beige]

bunky radelaide

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...ghts-128416974

[b0son]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

A similar search of Melbourne environs throws up over 4000 properties.

1 bedroom apartments... for $400k+

Your similar search is similarly irrelevant.

[FairmontGS]

Many thousands of eligible properties in Brisbane as well . I think Queensland is somewhat of a bargain atm.

[Giant Cranium]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/be...ocation-search

Whoops! Forgot Central Coast and Blue Mountains as well. So that's North West Sydney, South West Sydney, Western Sydney, Sutherland, Central Coast and Lower Blue Mountains. Over 2000 assorted houses, flats and town houses.

Some may question the reach but I've worked with people in Sydney CBD for 25 years who happily travel 90 minutes each day down from Hazelwood or The Entrance. Cripes, I'm only 7 km from the CBD and it takes me 50 minutes

So, there are options.

mate that because you are slumming where you live, come to abbotsford, 20mins by boat to the city.

[au350hp]

Realestate.com is much like Carsales.com. They are both a good measure of price & availability but many cheaper options are advertised using other means.

[FairmontGS]

Amazing value in Hobart and Launceston as well. thousands of properties under $400k.

[Adamz Ghia]

Originally Posted by Mercury Bullet

I love how us over 50 get accused of buying in cheap, beating the boom yada, yada.

Cheaper housing is readily available. What has changed is people refusing to start at the bottom. Plenty of 3-400k housing if you want it.

Someone hit the nail on the head earlier with their friends buying lifestyle homes and now being trapped.

How many are happy to bring up their families in 3 bedroom 1 bathroom houses these days?
Must have the inner city mcmansion...now!

The one advantage we had I will concede is cities were much smaller places back then and the outskirts weren't so far away.

The last bit is the kicker. Yes there is plenty of cheap housing available, but if you work in Melbourne’s CBD and have to buy out in Tarneit, you can either drive an hour into the city (unless someone couldn’t handle the Point Cook bend and stacked it, if that happens it turns into two hours plus) and then pay for parking or catch a bus then a train then a tram and spend an hour and a half (on a good day) getting to work and the same getting home.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Adamz Ghia

The last bit is the kicker. Yes there is plenty of cheap housing available, but if you work in Melbourne’s CBD and have to buy out in Tarneit, you can either drive an hour into the city (unless someone couldn’t handle the Point Cook bend and stacked it, if that happens it turns into two hours plus) and then pay for parking or catch a bus then a train then a tram and spend an hour and a half (on a good day) getting to work and the same getting home.

It takes one of my colleagues 50 minutes to an hour plus to go 7km by train and tram to work and he lives in inner Melbourne - mind you if he drives its got a toll road portion and it still take 1 hour 30 mins to 2 hours

Hell to go from Kensington to Crown Casino takes 45 minutes plus and most of that you get stuck on Spencer Street - and thats less than 7km.

Every 'freeway' into Melbourne jams up in the morning in peak hour, Ring Road, Westgate Freeway, Tullamarine Freeway, Monash Freeway (you gotta pay for those last two) even the god damn Calder Freeway between Kings Road and Keilor Park Drive offramp and its a 2 lane divided freeway thats a monster connecting Melbourne to Bendigo and it still grinds to a halt every morning for 15 minutes.

Forget public transport unless you work in the CBD, otherwise you end up changing trains all over the place and playing musical trams. Even then my closest train station is still 15km or so away where the trains hardly stop and the train is well and truly full before it gets to that stop.

If I want a seat I need to drive 26km to a different train station.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by Adamz Ghia

The last bit is the kicker. Yes there is plenty of cheap housing available, but if you work in Melbourne’s CBD and have to buy out in Tarneit, you can either drive an hour into the city (unless someone couldn’t handle the Point Cook bend and stacked it, if that happens it turns into two hours plus) and then pay for parking or catch a bus then a train then a tram and spend an hour and a half (on a good day) getting to work and the same getting home.

Travel time is just something you have to work with sometimes to get into the market unfortunately. Now I do not have a fixed workplace. In a service industry I have to go to where the job is. So an hour drive is pretty standard to get to site and it's usually more then that to get home. I can often organise an early start time (say 6am or earlier) to beat the traffic in but that doesn't always mean I get out early to beat traffic. I'm on an hourly rate so I get paid for the extra hours of work but not the getting held back by traffic. Typically I work in the Sydney cbd which is a 31km drive that for a 7am start is on a good run 45 minutes however I often get sent to botany or matraville which is a longer drive. Sometimes I finish my day in anywhere from brookvale to campelltown. But I do it for the better work and at the end of the day I'm not going to be the one whinging about a land lord. It's just a lifestyle sacrifice you have to make to be able to live in a city around your family. Like roostercam said about hard work and starting off in an area that's not your ideal place, you have to start somewhere and then work up from there.

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by .:4:.

Travel time is just something you have to work with sometimes to get into the market unfortunately. .

This. Common sense and things are not given up on a platter-there is always crap to contend with.

I live on Lake Macquarie- and often work in Sydney. The kicker is leaving Sydney on a Friday to go up the M1 to Newcastle. If you have not left by 3.00 pm forget it- the traffic....

Now if I have a matter and am kept in the Sydney cbd- rather than whining about how I could not afford to buy in Sydney and had to buy in Newcastle and have to commute to Sydney and it takes 3 hours on Friday to drive back 1 way- instead of fighting traffic (and I am brain dead anyways) I get some sushi and then watch a movie- hit the road afterwards for a very quick run home.

Actually enjoy that quiet dark theatre time to myself now.

Make a negative positive.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by asagaai

This. Common sense and things are not given up on a platter-there is always crap to contend with.

I live on Lake Macquarie- and often work in Sydney. The kicker is leaving Sydney on a Friday to go up the M1 to Newcastle. If you have not left by 3.00 pm forget it- the traffic....

Now if I have a matter and am kept in the Sydney cbd- rather than whining about how I could not afford to buy in Sydney and had to buy in Newcastle and have to commute to Sydney and it takes 3 hours on Friday to drive back 1 way- instead of fighting traffic (and I am brain dead anyways) I get some sushi and then watch a movie- hit the road afterwards for a very quick run home.

Actually enjoy that quiet dark theatre time to myself now.

Make a negative positive.

Mate fridays are the worst. Even trying to get out early from the city it's never a clean run. Minimum 2 hours for me on a 3pm knock off. But if you know that you just factor it in. I have a really short attention span so I can't deal with waiting until the traffic has died down. I do use my travel time to make the business calls to organize jobs and all the rest as opposed to doing it on site slowing things down. It's either using dead time or listening to mindless radio.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by .:4:.

But I do it for the better work and at the end of the day I'm not going to be the one whinging about a land lord.

Lol, i've been waiting for this chestnut, you guys are so predictable.
I rent, been in the same place for over 7 years now. Since i moved in the rent has gone up $15 from $285pw to $300pw for a 10yr old 4 bedroom, ensuite, walk in robe, with double garage UMR 2 minutes from an expressway which leads me 30 minutes directly to Adelaides CBD and $10 of that was due to having the owners install a ducted A/C system after the first lease was up.
I had them ditch the real estate agent after 2 years, she was useless and they save the 10% she was charging, i see them once a year when the lease is due.
Last week they messaged to see if they could come and do some maintenance, we were away camping so i said no, i'll let you know when it suits.
18 months ago we had some dodgy neighbours causing troubleso i informed them that i wouldnt be staying any longer, they messaged back asking me to meet them for coffee so they could discuss our concerns and offered us another of their properties, thankfully the neighbours left and peace has returned.
Does this sound like im whinging about the landlord..

To build the same house, which i looked into doing 18 months ago, it was going to cost me around double per week by the time i factored in the interest, insurance, rates, emergency services levy, water rates etc. and when i spent a month wandering through the display homes i was disgusted at the quality and poor workmanship i figured why bother.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Not at all fella, but i persisted with my questioning with regards to those who you claim are on the verge of taking the plunge because, and this may seem arrogant to you, but i already knew the answer because it doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure out that a couple in their mid to late 20's who've been saving their ****s off for a decade wouldnt be able to do that if kids were a concern, i know, i've been there and seen many others too.
But that didnt fit the narrative of how you know someone who's made it happen so everyone should be able to do it if they work hard and save even harder so you avoided that one part of my original question and when you finally came clean, hey presto, im correct, go figure.

Consider this..
On my shelf is a photograph of a family of 5 generations all of which were home owners throughout their lives and obviously raised kids in them, the eldest is 90, the next 69, the next 49, the next 27 and the youngest 6, all of them except the youngest had kids in their early 20's.
If the current and future generations have to scrimp and save and go without kids for an extra 10yrs until their late 20's/early 30's just to buy a house the same photograph would require the eldest to be 130, the next 99, the next 69, the next 37 for the youngest to be 6 now.

Whats the likelyhood of that photograph ever happening..

Now to some people not having kids is fine, some people just cant and thats sad enough, but if people, and im not saying those you know necessarily, in their mid 20's have to make a decision between having kids or saving their ****s off, then something is very wrong with the lucky country.

Mate, that was just one storey I personally know of, yer it wasn't the classic scenario or the same as yours but still a win for a young couple but not every young home buyer couple has no kids a few years ago or even last weekend.
Purchase's are still occuring no matter how you see it.
Yep the Govs have a lot to answer for how property has gone OTT but whats going to change - its either put up or shut up no.
The current/future gens (a good % of them) have shown they want to do it all before marriage/kids, yer good on them - that is going OS for years (feck Yr 12 schoolies even developed to OS trips nowadays ffs) , back packing, taking a sabbatical, new car/s, etcetc so is that part why so many are scrimping and excuse me re deciding on having kids early, they already decided themselves not having any till in their 30's which is todays way in general and so lucky modern drugs are kicking in helping us living longer so I'll be curious what that family gen photo will look like.

Yep, thats what those old photos are for, to remember the past, its cliche no, every gen goes through changes good and bad, the Lucky Country, a term gone by the noughties but doesn't mean its the end.