A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

[Trump]

Originally Posted by BradEL

That all sounds like a good plot for the next Back to the Future movie where they go forward to the year 2030

You jest, but apparently a remake is actually on the cards

[Pis-ton broke]

in the year 2525, i think these guys have nailed it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQB2-Kmiic

[QIKESP]

Interesting article !
3D Printing is going to be one of the big change drivers for manufacturing in the near future, interlinked with full start to finish automation of the process.
Having seen some of the cutting edge r&d samples and the shear capabilities (cost is no object printers,not mainstream units), it's quite incredible just how far it's come.
So much so that I left the lab drooling.
MD of Daimler is on the money regarding how this technology is evolving.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by Trump

These are the very industries that are the focus of those driving the automation bandwagon. Don't be surprised if your meat is printed in a decade or so...

You've probably seen this, The plan is already a year in the making to remanufacture a Steak that looks like a steak but its easier to chew for aged & disabled.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/201...inting/8086060

[Outbackjack]

Many years ago I red a book by a Japanese philosopher (can't remember his name) Anyway he pretty much predicted much of the main topic here. One thing that really stuck in my mind was the accelerated unemployment concept. I will try and paraphrase. It kinda goes like this.

For every company that dismisses workers (for what ever reason) are taking away customers from other companies. The other companies feel the crunch and they dismiss workers and so on..... Its a accelerating downward spiral.

If we speculate a little: and workers keep getting made redundant, who will be left to buy the products/services of the heavily robotic companies? There will have to be some kind of point of no return. I saw the other day a machine that cam lay bricks...... I wonder what professions/trades are immune?

[Trump]

Originally Posted by Outbackjack

Many years ago I red a book by a Japanese philosopher (can't remember his name) Anyway he pretty much predicted much of the main topic here. One thing that really stuck in my mind was the accelerated unemployment concept. I will try and paraphrase. It kinda goes like this.

For every company that dismisses workers (for what ever reason) are taking away customers from other companies. The other companies feel the crunch and they dismiss workers and so on..... Its a accelerating downward spiral.

If we speculate a little: and workers keep getting made redundant, who will be left to buy the products/services of the heavily robotic companies? There will have to be some kind of point of no return. I saw the other day a machine that cam lay bricks...... I wonder what professions/trades are immune?

Do you remember the title by any chance?

[Outbackjack]

Originally Posted by Trump

Do you remember the title by any chance?

Of the book? I might still have it. I will have a look when I am home next and let you know.

[Syndrome]

It is only scary for those who live in ignorant bliss:

- the population of humans continues to grow to plague proportions yet there is no effort to contain this issue
- the balance of our biodiversity is being irreparably damaged
- the amount or arable land is disappearing
- natural resources are being consumed at a furious rate
- the planet is continuing to be turned into a rubbish dump

What the MD of Daimler Benz predicts is irrelevant because in the next century disease and famine will be the most important issues for mankind.

[CyberWasp]

What he is leaving out is that we are going to space.
The amount of employment that it will generate is enormous.
Technology shifts and so do the jobs.
Think of all the employment generated by the airline, travel, hospitality and related industries then multiply by 10.
Then there is the mining of the Moon, Mars and the Asteroids ect.
There is not going to be any shortage of jobs over the next 100 years and beyond.

[Trump]

Originally Posted by CyberWasp

What he is leaving out is that we are going to space.
The amount of employment that it will generate is enormous.
Technology shifts and so do the jobs.
Think of all the employment generated by the airline, travel, hospitality and related industries then multiply by 10.
Then there is the mining of the Moon, Mars and the Asteroids ect.
There is not going to be any shortage of jobs over the next 100 years and beyond.

As long as the current economic/governmental paradigm persists, we aren't going anywhere, despite the "efforts" of outfits like SpaceX. Space travel for all means ultimate freedom for all. When everyone is free, the power structures that currently exist wither and die.

[HO 3]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

When will technology replace the need for lawyers

Lawyers was just one example..............I don't think many realise the scope of professions that will go by the wayside as AI becomes more self aware into the future.

Cheers Mick

[Beastie]

Originally Posted by Bluey-GT

Pfffffft........ I don't need any of that.
I have a wife..........

Yeah, but he has a wife who is also a Lawyer...

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by HO 3

Lawyers was just one example..............I don't think many realise the scope of professions that will go by the wayside as AI becomes more self aware into the future.

Cheers Mick

Even the humble Brickie will be replaced by Automation.

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Even the humble Brickie will be replaced by Automation.

http://fbr.com.au/

About time too lol, I've seen some of the quality of the bricklaying lately, even my house, very inconsistent.

[Outbackjack]

Another consideration about future occupations and security. Power stations for the average power consumer are becoming dinosaurs. www.tesla.com/en_AU/blog/solar-roof check out the roof tiles that were just released here in Australia. There will be a need for bulk power for a few years yet but the demand will surely die away. Sad thing is though, this will affect govco coffers as well. How many years before we are all taxed on the amount of solar that we generate for our own use?? I give it ten.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Outbackjack

There will have to be some kind of point of no return. I saw the other day a machine that cam lay bricks...... I wonder what professions/trades are immune?

I was shown a machine that could carve stone (from China) and saw an app for building a (drystone) random rubble wall.

Comical, I definitely don't have anything to worry about.

[Mercury Bullet]

I recently saw a video of a boning room in an abattoir where there was not a single human in sight and a bunch of robots were cutting up sheep.
It was extraordinary and concerning at the same time. Boning used to be considered as a highly skilled job, not anymore.

[Rallye Sport]

Originally Posted by Wretched

http://fbr.com.au/
.

not a bum crack in sight either

[cheap]

Originally Posted by HO 3

Lawyers was just one example..............I don't think many realise the scope of professions that will go by the wayside as AI becomes more self aware into the future.

Cheers Mick

Except it will take lawyers to write the laws that will replace them and judges. How will a judge react to being questioned by a machine/computer. If you follow this illogical theory then we may as well go the full monty and replace the politicians. Does anyone else think this has a snowflakes chance in hell of happening?

[Adamz Ghia]

Will be interesting when China is ready to start mining the moon and decides to claim it as it's own. Doubt the US and even Russia will stand buy and allow that to happen.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Came across this article in the London Telegraph, published two days ago.

My comment is that I think the timeline is a little optimistic, but the basic premise will eventuate, in around 15 - 20 years. The larger cities will be at the forefront of this revolution.

Race to electric cars fuels world of stranded assets

No more petrol or diesel cars, buses or trucks will be sold anywhere within eight years.The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.

This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, blandly entitled Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing deep anxiety in the established industries.

Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving and switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are 10 times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near zero marginal cost of fuel.

Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares or anybody to fix the 2000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine.

Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel. This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a ‘‘mass stranding of existing vehicles’’. The value of second-hard cars will plunge.

The long-term price of crude will fall to $US25 a barrel. Most forms of shale and deep-water drilling will no longer be viable. Assets will be stranded. It is an existential threat to Ford, General Motors and the German car industry. They will face a choice between manufacturing EVs in a brutal low-profit market, or reinventing themselves as self-drive service companies.

The next generation of cars will be ‘‘computers on wheels’’. Silicon Valley is where the auto action is, not Detroit or Toyota City.

The shift, according to Seba, is driven by technology, not climate policies. Market forces are bringing it about with a speed and ferocity that governments could never hope to achieve.

‘‘We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,’’ Seba said. ‘‘Internal combustion engine vehicles will enter a vicious cycle of increasing costs.’’

The ‘‘tipping point’’ will arrive over the next two to three years as EV battery ranges surpass 320 kilometres and electric car prices in the US drop to
$US30,000. By 2022 the low-end models will be down to $US20,000. After that, the avalanche will sweep all before it.

‘‘Our research and modelling indicate that the $10 trillion annual revenues in the existing vehicle and oil supply chains will shrink dramatically,’’ Seba said.

‘‘Certain high-cost countries, companies, and fields will see their oil production entirely wiped out. Exxon-Mobil, Shell and BP could see 40 per cent to 50 per cent of their assets become stranded,’’ the report said.

While the professor’s timing may be off by a few years, there is little doubt about the general direction. India is drawing up plans to phase out all petrol and diesel cars by 2032, leap-frogging China in an electrification race across
Asia.

China is moving in parallel, pushing for seven million electric vehicles by 2025, enforced by a minimum quota for ‘‘new energy’’ vehicles that shifts the burden for the switch on to manufacturers.

Experts will argue over Seba’s claims. His broad point is that multiple technological trends are combining in a perfect storm. The simplicity of the EV model is breathtaking. The Tesla S has 18 moving parts, one hundred times fewer than a combustion engine car.

It has long been known that EVs are four times more efficient than petrol or diesel cars, which lose 80 per cent of their power in heat. What changes the equation is the advent of EV models with the acceleration and performance of
a Lamborghini costing five or 10 times less to buy, and at least 10 times less to run.

The parallel is what happened to film cameras – and to Kodak – once digital rivals hit the market. It was swift and brutal. There’ll be losers. Whole countries will spin into crisis. The world’s geopolitical order will be reshaped almost overnight. But humanity as a whole should enjoy an enormous welfare gain.

[Trump]

Unless a radical new battery technology pops up between now and Seba's forecast period, his view is a pipe dream. Cars will need to be able to travel at least 800km on a single charge (with luggage and other cargo) whilst trucks would need to be able to get from Melbourne to Brisbane on a single charge to begin to challenge the hegemony of the diesel fleet.

[tweeked]

The internet is so frustrating.

I found this article interesting, but before sharing I did my usual check on the source. Nothing came up about attributing this to Dr Dieter Zetsche, MD of Daimler except for cut and paste repostings without a reference document to him. It turns out it was an article by Dr Ronald Klatz, with the auto stuff cherry picked out of it.

http://www.worldhealth.net/news/pred...nology-health/

Still interesting though.

[Sprintey]

Those autonomous ships were pretty impressive.

If you're cognizant of EROEI, we pretty much have to go electric reasonably soon. I wonder what an exceptionally large CME will do to all this new tech, however. (For those researching solar winds, you will notice a defined trend and will come to realise its implications)

My take is we rise and fall. As the priests of Sais said to Solon so very long ago. Fire from the skies, or water from below.

Originally Posted by roKWiz

I was shown a machine that could carve stone (from China) and saw an app for building a (drystone) random rubble wall.

Comical, I definitely don't have anything to worry about.

Rokwiz, you may enjoy this link, one of the coolest things I've found on the net:
http://www.gizapower.com/Advanced/Ad...Machining.html

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Rokwiz, you may enjoy this link, one of the coolest things I've found on the net:
http://www.gizapower.com/Advanced/Ad...Machining.html

Thanks mate for the link, great reading. Egyptian and Mayans certainly had one advantage over now, "slave labour".

[stefcio007]

Ford talked about this at least last year with myFord and that that's the way they are going. People working at BMW said the same thing late last year.

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by CyberWasp

What he is leaving out is that we are going to space.
The amount of employment that it will generate is enormous.
Technology shifts and so do the jobs.
Think of all the employment generated by the airline, travel, hospitality and related industries then multiply by 10.
Then there is the mining of the Moon, Mars and the Asteroids ect.
There is not going to be any shortage of jobs over the next 100 years and beyond.

You mean when robots go to space to work.


60% of all students are training for jobs that can be automated.
People say 'retrain to something that cannot be automated' That's getting harder all the time. Plus if we all retrain, there will be more people qualified than there are jobs that exist.
Bring on the new industries that don't exist yet. We need something very, very soon.

But once the unemployment rate sores into the double figures and all centrelinks are jam packed, govco will be offering incentives to companies that hire humans to do jobs robots can do.

Turns out the dropkick, lifelong dole bludgers have been prepping for the future all along

[Outbackjack]

Originally Posted by Trump

Unless a radical new battery technology pops up between now and Seba's forecast period, his view is a pipe dream. Cars will need to be able to travel at least 800km on a single charge (with luggage and other cargo) whilst trucks would need to be able to get from Melbourne to Brisbane on a single charge to begin to challenge the hegemony of the diesel fleet.

And recharge in the same time it takes to fill your car/truck.

[Trump]

Originally Posted by Outbackjack

And recharge in the same time it takes to fill your car/truck.

This.

I can see it now... fill up your tank with water, put it through a cold fusion process and liberate enough energy to power a small town

[Outbackjack]

Originally Posted by Trump

This.

I can see it now... fill up your tank with water, put it through a cold fusion process and liberate enough energy to power a small town

I can but hope you are rite.