Record March 2010 new car sales! - VFACTS

[Smoke Pursuit]

Originally Posted by 4Vman

None of us really know how many units they need to make each month to remain viable because that number will change based on model mix and what margin they're sold for.

I totally agree though that Ford should strive to sell more cars... BUT at a profit.

What i do know is id rather sell 2500 cars a month with an incremental increase in sale YTD and return a small profit than sell 5000 cars a month, loose some market share and make a loss doing it....

Some though will still see the 5000 sales as some kind of victory or success.

How do you know they are making a loss tho through the commodore program? Yes they could be making a loss through Korean crap they import but theres nothing to say the Commodore isnt profitable. You have to remember cost isnt just materials and labour, its the R&D that originally went into the car to, so if you can spread the R&D over alot more cars then they soon become more profitable. This also goes for the fact that the VE is 4 years old now, so most of their investment would be covered!

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by bfiipursuit

How do you know they are making a loss tho through the commodore program? Yes they could be making a loss through Korean crap they import but theres nothing to say the Commodore isnt profitable. You have to remember cost isnt just materials and labour, its the R&D that originally went into the car to, so if you can spread the R&D over alot more cars then they soon become more profitable. This also goes for the fact that the VE is 4 years old now, so most of their investment would be covered!

They could just as easily be making a loss on the commodore as well, even with amortization costs taken out, they're buying fleet market share.

Their bottom line suggests they're hemorrhaging from somewhere, they've also stated they needed the commodore exports to keep their line viable...

From what we're hearing without their export program the Elizabeth plant isn't efficient with the current through puts at their sales margins... hence why they're "buying" market share to "hopefully" create pull through...

[bobthebilda]

But thats just the problem with Falcon and Commodore. The may take market share from the other this month, they may have had a better market share against the other last year. But the big concern is that at 6700 cars for the month of March (minus utes), the Large car market in Australia only accounts for 7% of all vehicles sold in australia.

And to add to the question of efficiency, Imagine the benefits of pumping out 30,000 corollas a month (and sending 3600 to aus), compared to pumping out 2400 Falcons and 700 Territories.

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

But thats just the problem with Falcon and Commodore. The may take market share from the other this month, they may have had a better market share against the other last year. But the big concern is that at 6700 cars for the month of March (minus utes), the Large car market in Australia only accounts for 7% of all vehicles sold in australia.

There are far more options now then even 10 years ago, the market is getting cut into smaller market segments all the time, the SUV has gone a long way to kill off the private large car segment..

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

And to add to the question of efficiency, Imagine the benefits of pumping out 30,000 corollas a month (and sending 3600 to aus), compared to pumping out 2400 Falcons and 700 Territories.

Yes but your facility has to be able to cope with those volumes too....
Different plants will have different efficiency "sweet spots" for daily production..
A plant that's efficient making 30000 cars a month wont survive on 3000 a month and conversely a plant designed to be efficient at 3000 cars a month can't possibly cope with making 30000 a month.
Even a 10% ramp up in production for a car plant takes many months to plan and implement.... its not as simple as just turning the dial up... and equally it would be a very stupid move to do it unless the sales were sustainable...

[bobthebilda]

bfiipursuit, Holden stated in its previous profit and loss statements, that it was writing the costs of the VE development off over the three year period. That would fit into the scheme that a car model most times only runs for 3 years. Holden probably never foresaw that they would have to extend the lifespan of the VE, thus it would have been quite silly to be writing off the development costs for the VE, when they were making the VF.

If they are selling imports at a loss, then it looks even sillier to stop importing the cruze, and start making them in a higher cost country. Basically Holden need to sell each car for an extra $2000 to make a profit, however that may eat into sales. The government subsidies are biased towards inefficient higher sales, than to efficient low sales.

[GT450]

What a load of doom sayers we have on this forum at times. You can them because they don't sell enough vehicles , well my friends that's just market forces you can't make someone buy something they don't want. As 4v man says as long as they make a profit and stay in business that's a win in todays economy. Toyota are in front by a country mile but i would no sooner buy one of them than a dunnydore for my own transport but everyone has a choice and get over it if it's not the same as yours.
The same people here will criticise the next FPV for not having enough KWs when it is released but how many of you put your money where your mouth is and buy a new blue oval every few years. Well it's because of people like you and those who read your posts on forums like this that people may be turned off a particular vehicle. A lot of forum members ogle and envy some of the cars members drive and say so, some will never even get in one and denigrate them at any chance. Leave the Ford doomsaying for the Evil Empire and enjoy the fact that we still have cars we like, at least for the present. the glass is still half full.
Cheers
GT450

[GK]

Originally Posted by GT450

...enjoy the fact that we still have cars we like, at least for the present. the glass is still half full.
Cheers
GT450

Great post! Well said!

GK

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by bfiipursuit

How do you know they are making a loss tho through the commodore program? Yes they could be making a loss through Korean crap they import but theres nothing to say the Commodore isnt profitable. You have to remember cost isnt just materials and labour, its the R&D that originally went into the car to, so if you can spread the R&D over alot more cars then they soon become more profitable. This also goes for the fact that the VE is 4 years old now, so most of their investment would be covered!

GM stood up in front of the US government with viability plan for Holden which stated that
local manufacturing of the Cruze was key to the viability of Australian manufacturing of Holden products.

That's something of a revelation regarding the free standing viability of Commodore....
Add to that the significant losses Holden have suffered since 2006...

[bobthebilda]

[B]

Originally Posted by GT450
...enjoy the fact that we still have cars we like, at least for the present. the glass is still half full.
Cheers
GT450

[B]

I would have thought that if you are only selling 7% of the cars available, then the glass is 93% empty

[dannyhilton]

Everyone keeps saying that most of Commodore sales are lower spec fleet models such as the Omega, I know our fleet department will not buy a basic car anymore, and looks at G6 or XR6 type vehicles. My question is, while Ford may be selling more upscale models, are these actually to private sales or to fleets also? Because if they are selling to fleets, there are significant price cuts in these models just as the XT. Christ, our company buys over 600 cars a year and can get an fleet XR6 for nearly the same price as an fleet XT. Go figure. Is there any data to show the breakdown of fleet and non fleet sales?

I look after the buying of new vehicles for the branch I work for, and I was shocked at some of the prices I got from Holden and Toyota, they are slaughtering their prices. Ford on the other hand seem to be more expensive, so they must have some fat in their fleet pricing...

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by Brazen

I dont know, but I never really thought of market share as an important figure, you cant pay the bills with it.

Technically the Statesman/Caprice has 100% of the Aussie-made LWB segment, doesnt mean they sell a lot...

I sort of agree with what you are saying... But I compared the Falcon to the model that has been this countries best selling model for 14 years.. So if you have increased share on that mode, things can't be all bad??

Originally Posted by Brazen

I personally think a measly 5% increase in share from record shocking lows is pathetic. Especially with a brand new model against an aging competitor. But Im a scmhuck so it doesnt matter what I think :-)

A 5% market share increase is massive!! Dont get this confused with a % increase on prior years. This is maket share. Hyundia for example is having a massive year, yet does not have a 5% market share increase..

[Falcman0o7]

Corollas have gone down abit! LOL! "Don't worry mate you won't end up in a dam..."

[jpd80]

You've given me much to think about......

Product mix and average transaction price.

We know that Ford has experienced a huge change in product mix in the past
two years with the virtual extinction of the fleet based XT. Now, considering
that the XT's effective replacement id the XR6 with roughly $5,000 higher price,
I'd say that Ford is experiencing a huge lift in income.

Seeing that Holden's product mix still appears to heavily favour the base Omega,
I'm wondering whether Holden and Ford's cost base has changed that much that
the two can no longer be directly compared - especially with monthly sales.

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by jpd80

You've given me much to think about......

Product mix and average transaction price.

We know that Ford has experienced a huge change in product mix in the past
two years with the virtual extinction of the fleet based XT. Now, considering
that the XT's effective replacement id the XR6 with roughly $5,000 higher price,
I'd say that Ford is experiencing a huge lift in income.

Seeing that Holden's product mix still appears to heavily favour the base Omega,
I'm wondering whether Holden and Ford's cost base has changed that much that
the two can no longer be directly compared - especially with monthly sales.

Yes... Holden have become a fleet "whore".... and Ford have focused on catering to the private sector..
As noted above by a fleet mgr Ford's prices are well above Holden and Toyota's for the same product.
That's not being greedy, its just plain good business management and price protection of your brand, and its reflected in resale values...

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by jpd80

You've given me much to think about......

Product mix and average transaction price.

We know that Ford has experienced a huge change in product mix in the past
two years with the virtual extinction of the fleet based XT. Now, considering
that the XT's effective replacement id the XR6 with roughly $5,000 higher price,
I'd say that Ford is experiencing a huge lift in income.

Seeing that Holden's product mix still appears to heavily favour the base Omega,
I'm wondering whether Holden and Ford's cost base has changed that much that
the two can no longer be directly compared - especially with monthly sales.

An XT on the road is $43000, Ford are selling XR6s for $36990 driveaway so I think there is hardly any increase in revenue for Ford. Still it is a great image maker having nice XRs driving around rather than dowdy base models.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Brazen

An XT on the road is $43000, Ford are selling XR6s for $36990 driveaway so I think there is hardly any increase in revenue for Ford. Still it is a great image maker having nice XRs driving around rather than dowdy base models.

I thought that $36,990 fro an 09 plate XR6 but the again,
we also had the G6 Limited Edition for similar price too


I remember fleet manager in 2008 telling me XTs were about $30,000 and XR6 was around $35,000,
pretty sure those prices still hold fairly true for fleets.

[imugli]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Seeing that Holden's product mix still appears to heavily favour the base Omega,
I'm wondering whether Holden and Ford's cost base has changed that much that
the two can no longer be directly compared - especially with monthly sales.

I think this question is quite valid. Falcon now seems more of a semi-luxury market vehicle. Personal buyers, high end model mix, FoA pushing fleets to Mondeo (successfully or not) which is just as big on the inside but has 4cyl and diesel powerplants. I think Falcon's market is now a different one to Commodore, or at least it's moving that way. I think perception of Falcon is slowly changing and that it is slowly moving up a class from Commodore. This will mean less outright sales numbers as there are less people looking for these types of cars.

What I'd like to see is a breakdown of the actual models to prove my point (or not). How many Calais V vs G6ET etc.

I'd also like some sort of average sale price data so we can stop speculating that Ford are making more per vehicle sold. Numbers make a great headline but they seldom tell the whole story.

[bobthebilda]

If you add 13% of mazda sales to ford (as percentage of ownership), you get nearly 9000 vehicles, but if you were to add Kia to Hyundai sales (100% ownership), you would have to say they are in third place, and with the cars they have just released or coming up, they could be taking second place very soon.

[P6LTD351]

To be honest, I don't know what to really think of those numbers. I think stats can be made and twisted to present what you want them to be.

What do you think of this though: Many people will buy cars that are top sellers. Do people really think that Ford don't care that they are selling WAY less Falcons than the Commodore? Public perception is important. The fact that the Falcon is moving down the top 10 list is concerning, no matter how much profit is being made.

[jpd80]

Ford obviously sees a continuing place for the XT by giving it a ZF, Bluetooth and iPod integration.
I just wish they'd tart up the front a bit with the R6 nose clip, it looks heaps better.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I remember fleet manager in 2008 telling me XTs were about $30,000 and XR6 was around $35,000,
pretty sure those prices still hold fairly true for fleets.

What would be the extra cost to build an XR6 over XT? Would be interesting to see how much extra Ford is making from swapping from XT to XR6. If it costs 5,000 more to build, then they are getting nothing from it. Also, if private buyers can get XR6 for 36,000K, surely fleets are at getting much less than 35,000??

Whilst I do believe Ford have moved from XT to XR6, Ford have just starting floggin the XR6 to fleets.. Anytime you see an XR6 with no tint windows you have a fleet car & I see alot of tint-less XR6's around

[dannyhilton]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I remember fleet manager in 2008 telling me XTs were about $30,000 and XR6 was around $35,000, pretty sure those prices still hold fairly true for fleets.

Going by the numbers I've got I think Ford have had quite a large shift in their fleet pricing. Our XT BFII was in the vacinity of the price you mentioned, but now a XT FG is quite a bit more. The fact we can buy an XR6 for not much more tells me this is why XT sales are so low, as fleets have moved to the XR6. This is Fords new fleet car.

Originally Posted by 4Vman

As noted above by a fleet mgr Ford's prices are well above Holden and Toyota's for the same product. That's not being greedy, its just plain good business management and price protection of your brand, and its reflected in resale values.

And that's the exact reason I drive an XR6 Ute and will be replacing our Aurion with an XR6 saloon. Comparing the XR6 with the SV6 and SX6 puts the XR6 as the most expensive in terms of spec. We have a national fleet deal with at least 500 cars bought by the group every year. There is not much between the SX6 and XR6, and look at all the extra features the SX6 has over the XR6. The SV6 can be had for pennies in comparisin. Even Holden has moved their Omega price up, an SV6 isn't much more. Your true fleets are driven by that buy price, but we want resale too.

[bobthebilda]

I still dont know where all the Ford Oz made cars are going. 2500 Falcons (and not sure of Territories but assume about 700, and 900 Utes), and 400 overseas, then you end up with 4500 per month. Burela recently said thinking of upping production to 280 per day. 280 per day @ 20 days = 5600 per month, 21 days = 5880.

Do these car companies send the cars to the same black hole they send our taxpayer monies to?

[Gobes32]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

I still dont know where all the Ford Oz made cars are going. 2500 Falcons (and not sure of Territories but assume about 700, and 900 Utes), and 400 overseas, then you end up with 4500 per month. Burela recently said thinking of upping production to 280 per day. 280 per day @ 20 days = 5600 per month, 21 days = 5880.

Do these car companies send the cars to the same black hole they send our taxpayer monies to?

That figure assumes the production line does not stop. But it does, regularly.

People are upset that Ford have not sold more cars, but I think you will find they are at production capacity. They simply cannot build anymore.

[jpd80]

11 Prado 2087 (+94.7%)
12 Camry 1985 (548 Camry Hybrids)

Mondeo 455
Focus 808

Mazda 6 758
CX7 944

Captiva 1455
Barina 1213

[csv8]

What about the FIESTA ? Especially the ECONETIC any figures ???

[bobthebilda]

Phew, only 1985 Camrys. I suspect that Aurions were less than half this number, thus puting Toyota Australian made and sold cars at about 2800 cars for the month. Does anyone know where to find all the definitive figures for cars sold for the month. With Toyota exporting 65% of the cars made at Port Melbourne, they must sweat everytime the australian dollar ticks up. Maybe Toyota packing up shop first may save Ford and Holden for a bit longer.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

I still dont know where all the Ford Oz made cars are going. 2500 Falcons (and not sure of Territories but assume about 700, and 900 Utes), and 400 overseas, then you end up with 4500 per month. Burela recently said thinking of upping production to 280 per day. 280 per day @ 20 days = 5600 per month, 21 days = 5880.

Do these car companies send the cars to the same black hole they send our taxpayer monies to?

IIRC production was stared mid January & then they lost nearly a week with a supplier problem in February.

Ford are simply out of stock of cars, going so far to state recently that the turnaround ratio is under 1. Ie what they make is at the dealer and sold by months end.

Burela has stated that 2 Saturdays of overtime will happen this month (April). But even that will only offset the 2 public holidays for Easter. Leaving just 20 days of production. Burela is talking up a net production increase this year of 15%. If that applies directly to Falcons that means 36,000. With a tally of ~7,000 in Q1, they will need to catch up and get to 2,800 monthly average from last year quickly and then exceed 3-3,200 by years end when the line is simplified and the wagon is gone.

PS Having the ZF across the FG2 range (announced today) might just help with streamlining the line and even more appealing to fleets & privates alike with 9.9L/100km across the board.

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by phillyc

IIRC production was stared mid January & then they lost nearly a week with a supplier problem in February.

Ford are simply out of stock of cars, going so far to state recently that the turnaround ratio is under 1. Ie what they make is at the dealer and sold by months end.

Burela has stated that 2 Saturdays of overtime will happen this month (April). But even that will only offset the 2 public holidays for Easter. Leaving just 20 days of production. Burela is talking up a net production increase this year of 15%. If that applies directly to Falcons that means 36,000. With a tally of ~7,000 in Q1, they will need to catch up and get to 2,800 monthly average from last year quickly and then exceed 3-3,200 by years end when the line is simplified and the wagon is gone.

PS Having the ZF across the FG2 range (announced today) might just help with streamlining the line and even more appealing to fleets & privates alike with 9.9L/100km across the board.

So ditching the wagon will speed up and un complicate the line to allow them to build more sedans by themselves than the 2 combined?

[bobthebilda]

Philly, if you lose 400 wagon sales a month (due to end of production), you cannibalise your own market to a certain degree (ie ramping up Mondeo sales), and you are only selling 2500 Falcons in a good month, where exactly do you go and find buyers for an 1100 (2500 now-400 wagons+ 700) Falcons a month. I think the motto "If you build they will come" only works for baseball feilds or Holdens (if you have taxpayer subsidies)