Covid 19 - - Page 41

PhilT2 · 15-04-2020, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smoo

How far fetched does a conspiracy theory have to be?

That parents and friends try to cover up their kids stupid misdeeds or that politicians are bonking their staff and priests fiddle with little boys is not really a conspiracy We know these things happen.

To qualify as a proper conspiracy nutter you have to start with something a bit more unusual. Like the CIA shot JFK/planted bombs in the twin towers/ captured aliens in Area 51 and keep Bigfoot as a pet.

It is also necessary that you believe two contradictory things at the same time. Like the the UN is totally inept, incompetent and run by idiots. But they're about to take over the world. Or Hilary eats babies in the basement of a pizza place that actually doesn't have a basement.

Reality is tough but it won't go away just because you don't like it.

PhilT2 · 13-04-2020, 04:59 PM

When I went overseas in the 70's I had to carry a vaccination booklet with a record of all the shots I had; it was necessary to get into some countries.

Of course that was before the mind control chip was included.

Yellow_Festiva · 15-04-2020, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilT2

When I went overseas in the 70's I had to carry a vaccination booklet with a record of all the shots I had; it was necessary to get into some countries.

Of course that was before the mind control chip was included.

We needed a similar book for Africa - it was yellow if I recall?

That was only 9 years ago.

Franco Cozzo · 13-04-2020, 05:17 PM

Who remembers HIV?

That's been in the spotlight for circa 40 years and they're only able to manage it through medications like PrEP, wrapping up your wang or avoiding swapping bodily fluids with people with HIV - there is no 'cure' for HIV but it can be managed (arguably undetected syphilis is worse but this thread isn't for that discussion)

Whats everyone's opinions on COVID-19, do you think we'll ever invent a vaccine for it or is it going to become seasonable and we end up icing our poor Cav's and Gaso's (and the few unlucky younger cases) on a yearly basis?

prydey · 13-04-2020, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Whats everyone's opinions on COVID-19, do you think we'll ever invent a vaccine for it or is it going to become seasonable and we end up icing our poor Cav's and Gaso's (and the few unlucky younger cases) on a yearly basis?

It will become like swine flu (H1N1) which is now included in the seasonal flu shot along with 3 other most prominent strains for the season.

Syndrome · 13-04-2020, 07:05 PM

What I hate is how the media exaggerates this issue, "Boris Johnson released from hospital after brush with death". He was never in danger of passing away. He spent a few days in Intensive Care and was given oxygen. That is NOT being on death's door.

**PG2** · 14-04-2020, 06:37 PM

Sorry everyone, but the thread is closed for another 24 hours. You can all thank Syndrome for that.

Just to clear it up, this thread was closed because of a number of reasons. I and a mod or two posted that the behaviour was to stop but some of the posters did not listen - it was not closed because it is a Ford Forum. Saying that, if anyone wants to send me a link to an automotive forum that has allowed this to be discussed to the extent that it has been on AFF please PM me a link and I will reconsider re-opening it.

Once it is re-opened it will be moderated very heavily. There will be no more trolling or abuse of each other. All posts will need to stay on topic.

As I have said countless times, if you have a problem with the way I moderate please send me a PM, as long it is not abusive it will be given consideration, you never know, your PM may just convince me to reverse a decision that I have made.

Syndrome · 15-04-2020, 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PG2

Sorry everyone, but the thread is closed for another 24 hours. You can all thank Syndrome for that.

Just to clear it up, this thread was closed because of a number of reasons. I and a mod or two posted that the behaviour was to stop but some of the posters did not listen - it was not closed because it is a Ford Forum. Saying that, if anyone wants to send me a link to an automotive forum that has allowed this to be discussed to the extent that it has been on AFF please PM me a link and I will reconsider re-opening it.

Once it is re-opened it will be moderated very heavily. There will be no more trolling or abuse of each other. All posts will need to stay on topic.

As I have said countless times, if you have a problem with the way I moderate please send me a PM, as long it is not abusive it will be given consideration, you never know, your PM may just convince me to reverse a decision that I have made.

It is baffling that you could misunderstand my post. May I suggest you read it again?

It was a neutral post, not directed at anybody, nor questioning why the thread was closed. It was merely, as the thread title says, seeking clarification.

**FairmontGS** · 15-04-2020, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syndrome

It is baffling that you could misunderstand my post. May I suggest you read it again?

It was a neutral post, not directed at anybody, nor questioning why the thread was closed. It was merely, as the thread title says, seeking clarification.

Don’t be obtuse. Everyone understood your post the first time around. The ground rules have been set. Play by them.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

nuthin' fancy · 15-04-2020, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syndrome

It is baffling that you could misunderstand my post. May I suggest you read it again?

It was a neutral post, not directed at anybody, nor questioning why the thread was closed. It was merely, as the thread title says, seeking clarification.

You weren't being asked.

Your opinion wasn't being sought.

You were being told, so be told.

**PG2** · 15-04-2020, 10:10 AM

I had a long winded post typed out but when I went to read it back even I got bored with it and stopped reading.

So, I'm going to keep it to three simple points;

1. If you having a little evil laugh to yourself while typing or sending a post then you are probably trolling. Any trolling will result in a warning and possible ban.

2. If you are smashing your keys into the keyboard your post is probably abusive and/or inappropriate. If it is abusive you will receive a ban. If it is inappropriate, for example, racist, you may find yourself permanently banned.

3. If you type the words such as mod, moderator, moderation and/or that ****wit with the green username (I'm paraphrasing) you are more than likely having a go at the moderation/admin team. Any posts of this nature will result in you being banned from AFF.

Thread is now re-opened. Everyone please play nice.

BENT_8 · 15-04-2020, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PG2

I had a long winded post typed out but when I went to read it back even I got bored with it and stopped reading.

So, I'm going to keep it to three simple points;

1. If you having a little evil laugh to yourself while typing or sending a post then you are probably trolling. Any trolling will result in a warning and possible ban.

2. If you are smashing your keys into the keyboard your post is probably abusive and/or inappropriate. If it is abusive you will receive a ban. If it is inappropriate, for example, racist, you may find yourself permanently banned.

3. If you type the words such as mod, moderator, moderation and/or that ****wit with the green username (I'm paraphrasing) you are more than likely having a go at the moderation/admin team. Any posts of this nature will result in you being banned from AFF.

Thread is now re-opened. Everyone please play nice.

THANKS PG..

**russellw** · 15-04-2020, 12:39 PM

Let's restart with some hard data. The graph below shows the Australian daily
new case rate and the trend-lines show the polynomial and 4 day moving trend, both of which are heading in the right direction.

Our serious (defined as hospitalised) rate is currently sitting at 1.25% of cases and the mortality rate at 0.953%. This compares with the WHO declared global mortality rate of 3.4%; the NZ rate of 0.659% and the US rate of 4.242% although these numbers are obviously impacted by the quantity of testing that is being done.

For those advocating the herd immunity approach, based on current rates of serious illness and death and assuming a 60% community infection rate we would end up with something like:

15M infections;
188k serious cases; and
143k deaths.

The real figures would probably be lower for the serious cases, not that the health system could cope anyway but the number of deaths would likely be higher.

cheap · 15-04-2020, 01:03 PM

www.cebm.net

Is there anyone who still wants to question the CFR ?

Australia and NZ have done a great job !

The challenge now is to manage the tail end of the virus and it is a very long tail. Without a vaccine, eliminating 100% of the C19 risk is impossible.

CoupeKing · 15-04-2020, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheap

image

www.cebm.net

Is there anyone who still wants to question the CFR ?

Australia and NZ have done a great job !

The challenge now is to manage the tail end of the virus and it is a very long tail. Without a vaccine, eliminating 100% of the C19 risk is impossible.

On that data, the vast majority of countries with a high fatality case-rate have universal healthcare.

cheap · 15-04-2020, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

On that data, the vast majority of countries with a high fatality case-rate have universal healthcare.

Slow to react + slow to lockdown + slow to social distance + dismissive = overwhelmed healthcare system = many deaths

Some countries have next to no healthcare = more deaths

**Cav** · 15-04-2020, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cheap

image

www.cebm.net

Is there anyone who still wants to question the CFR ?

Australia and NZ have done a great job !

The challenge now is to manage the tail end of the virus and it is a very long tail. Without a vaccine, eliminating 100% of the C19 risk is impossible.

Yeah, I'll have a go.

Western countries appear to have the worst death rates?

For example ...

US deaths 23,844 cases 587,173

UK deaths 11,329 cases 88,621

China deaths 3341 cases 82,249

Russia deaths 170 cases 21,102

Why is this so?

roddy1960 · 15-04-2020, 02:20 PM

Will be interesting to see how China finishes up now that they've relaxed travel within the country again . I'll be really convinced that they've got it under control if there is no real evidence to show a spike in cases by the end of the month. Let's hope there is no dramatic spike .

Yellow_Festiva · 15-04-2020, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roddy1960

Will be interesting to see how China finishes up now that they've relaxed travel within the country again . I'll be really convinced that they've got it under control if there is no real evidence to show a spike in cases by the end of the month. Let's hope there is no dramatic spike .

When I saw that they relaxed their lockdown showing what looked like thousands of people all crammed together out and about I had a

moment thinking it was way to early.

Yesterday I read online that for the first time there was a small spike in cases in China.

They should have waited another week IMO.

Bent8 · 21-04-2020, 05:34 PM

We are being lied to... COVID-19 is just another flu strain and they are not confirming actual deaths from the disease so they can inflate the numbers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGbYHJcMbz8

**Cav** · 15-04-2020, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by russellw

Let's restart with some hard data. The graph below shows the Australian daily
new case rate and the trend-lines show the polynomial and 4 day moving trend, both of which are heading in the right direction.

image

Our serious (defined as hospitalised) rate is currently sitting at 1.25% of cases and the mortality rate at 0.953%. This compares with the WHO declared global mortality rate of 3.4%; the NZ rate of 0.659% and the US rate of 4.242% although these numbers are obviously impacted by the quantity of testing that is being done.

image

For those advocating the herd immunity approach, based on current rates of serious illness and death and assuming a 60% community infection rate we would end up with something like:

15M infections;
188k serious cases; and
143k deaths.

The real figures would probably be lower for the serious cases, not that the health system could cope anyway but the number of deaths would likely be higher.

Your analysis is correct based on data available, and therein is the problem.

The data cannot be relied upon due to the nature of self reporting of nation states without any auditing.

So what is the goal?

To stop infections completely?

Maybe in the first instance, but this cannot be sustained due to two factors.
It destroys the economy of a nation.
Infections will restart once these tight controls are eased.

The modified herd immunity approach seems to be what nations are now looking at - that is - to modify and control social behaviour so that new infections can be controlled and handled effectively by the nations's health system without being overwhelmed.

This may turn out to be a series of on and off control measures over a long time frame until/if an anti-vaccine is developed or herd immunity is achieved

prydey · 15-04-2020, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cav

So what is the goal?

To stop infections completely?

The goal is not and was never to stop the virus. It's simply to enable the health system to cope.

Maybe some people would prefer to live in Italy or London or New York?

Seriously, people, just put your lives on hold for a few weeks. How hard is it. Look at our situation (Australia) compared to many other countries and just accept we are doing ok.

Ben73 · 15-04-2020, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prydey

The goal is not and was never to stop the virus. It's simply to enable the health system to cope.

Maybe some people would prefer to live in Italy or London or New York?

Seriously, people, just put your lives on hold for a few weeks. How hard is it. Look at our situation (Australia) compared to many other countries and just accept we are doing ok.

My wife wants to put her life on hold. But Morrison is on the news every night saying she should go to work because it's good for the economy. Who cares if you are crammed in a room with 30 kids, kids are magic they aren't affected by this. Just ignore the kids who have died from this overseas.

But she better not think about driving too far from home while isolated in her car or sit in the middle of a deserted park because that's not flattening the curve.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Our lovely local power hungry monkeys at Victoria Police are going to review all COVID-19 fines after more wrongful $1600 fines, this time for someone posting year old holiday photos on Facebook.

This is what happens when you give authoritarian powers without accountability.

More accountability required.

With the number of retracted fines it's clear the cop don't even know the rules or maybe some just don't care and get off on writing fines.

It makes me wonder how many other people around the country have been unjustly fined but because their story got no media attention they are stuck with it.
I'm sure there will be a lot of people in court over the next few months fighting these fines. Good way to flatten the curve.

hayseed · 15-04-2020, 02:21 PM

Is there any reliable date available for the African Continent..???

I would've thought given the Abject poverty, & non existent Health System/s It'd be running Rife through them..!!!

Yet you never hear or read of a thing..!!

**russellw** · 15-04-2020, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hayseed

Is there any reliable date available for the African Continent..???

I would've thought given the Abject poverty, & non existent Health System/s It'd be running Rife through them..!!!

Yet you never hear or read of a thing..!!

Not a lot of data yet but most of the mortality rates on the small sample data available are below 2% except for Algeria which is nearly 16% although the average of the 8 countries I looked at is 5.46% (8,513 cases and 449 deaths) but only South Africa has conducted any real volume of testing.

Franco Cozzo · 15-04-2020, 03:49 PM

Our lovely local power hungry monkeys at Victoria Police are going to review all COVID-19 fines after more wrongful $1600 fines, this time for someone posting year old holiday photos on Facebook.

https://9now.nine.com.au/a-current-a...8-b320335bc105

This is what happens when you give authoritarian powers without accountability.

Quote:

In a leaked internal memo, one of the state's most senior officers said the force's lack of consistency and discretion in enforcing lockdown laws was eroding public confidence in Victoria Police.

He urged members to reserve fines for only the most blatant and deliberate breaches.

More accountability required.

Romulus · 15-04-2020, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Our lovely local power hungry monkeys at Victoria Police are going to review all COVID-19 fines after more wrongful $1600 fines, this time for someone posting year old holiday photos on Facebook.

https://9now.nine.com.au/a-current-a...8-b320335bc105

This is what happens when you give authoritarian powers without accountability.

More accountability required.

The problem with civics not being taught at school is people don't know what their rights are. You have no obligation to tell the Police anything other than your name and address, and let them know you're exercising your right to silence.

prydey · 15-04-2020, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hayseed

Is there any reliable date available for the African Continent..???

I would've thought given the Abject poverty, & non existent Health System/s It'd be running Rife through them..!!!

Yet you never hear or read of a thing..!!

The virus appears to be a first world problem. Much of it spread around by travel.

Franco Cozzo · 15-04-2020, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prydey

The virus appears to be a first world problem. Much of it spread around by travel.

Or you mean appears to be the first world is actually reporting accurate data.

China isn't exactly well known for its truthfulness.

guzzis3 · 15-04-2020, 02:26 PM

Given the moderators post I'm not sure if this is on topic. I'll ask, and if it's inappropriate please suggest the correct place.

Is there anywhere we can either read about or ask about specific situations where an activity is allowed or disallowed under the lockdown ?

Here is queensland I can't make head nor tail of it.

Boating appears to be allowed. Motorcycling isn't.

You can go to kmart or bunnings but it's unclear, at least to me, if you are allowed to buy and sell on gumtree.

Some businesses are specifically locked down, cinemas, cafes etc, but the building industry is somehow "essential" ??

There is no rational definition of "local".

At the risk of being political, it seems the laws have been kept deliberately inconsistent and ambiguous so you can't find out for sure before leaving home and once out you are at the mercy of the cops, at $1300 a pop. I believe those interstate are facing similar issues.

So is there a way I'm not aware of to educate yourself on this ? or get a permission slip ?

And I'm really NOT trying to start a flame war, political war or anything else. I am genuinely baffled, and it's a genuine concern for me. I have no income. I have people wanting to buy stuff off me on gumtree, and an opportunity to mow some friend's lawns for $. There are others with genuine situations that aren't being addressed at all by the platitudes and double speak of our fearless leaders. Some of us don't get welfare and the free money being hosed around by our pork barrelers in chief (from both sides of the aisle).