Ford executives comment on the future of Falcon and Territory

[jpd80]

It's looking like EcoLPI will replace most of the lost LPG sales volume
and Ecoboost may well replace lost volume due to exit of stationwagon.

In my opinion, 2012 Falcon and Ute sales figures may well be back to 2010 sales numbers
while Territory will be significantly better than that time, so I'm sensing 2012 as an up year.....


Scenario 1:
On another note, if FoA decides another RWD Falcon/Territory is better suited to our large car and SUV market,
they could keep developing both vehicles and share Mustang power trains and electrical systems.
The upside to doing that is if we get to say, two years out and local manufacturing is not viable,
then the Falcon and Territory lines could be very effectively switched to a US plant with Mustang.
I could see the Americans giving that a very big tick as it adds production to their plants
and finally gives them cost effective access to our RWD vehicles, if they choose to use them.


Scenario 2:
The other alternative is to pick an EUCD pairing like Mondeo and next Edge for local manufacturing
while importing Taurus for big car sales and Mustang for performance orientated sales but you know
I have a feeling that FoA could mount a compelling case to do Mondeo, Taurus and Edge on EUCD/CD4
and become RHD regional supplier to FAPA for these larger vehicles. If local manufacturing does become
untenable, production plans could be switched to to existing plants in Thailand as added volume ...


I sense that these are the two scenarios facing Ford Australia,
what do you guys think?

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by b0son

Mitsu were selling 1000 total, but that was one model.

What matters is the minimum viable number for a given model. For Falcon, its complicated by the amount of components shared with Terri... but even so, there's a figure below which the Falcon is too expensive to put down the line. It must surely be getting close to that by now?

It wouldnt matter if Ford were selling 10,000 month... if there were 20 models, it wouldnt be a viable exercise.

As I said, dont let me stop you from putting Ford down.. Keep up your good work in this area!!

[jpd80]

December and January are bad months for Ford, the plant closes down for several weeks, the difference
this year is that Ford doesn't have a huge stockpile of unsold base XR6s sitting inside Broadmeadows.
LOL, it's basically the opposite with stories of little or no stock except for limited 2011 discount stock..

Look to February when dealers will start receiving more stock to sell...

[2011G6E]

Look, as much as we all love Ford and the Falcon (well, technically, with cars as with motorbikes, I have no favorites...I like everything from anywhere ), there is one glaringly obvious point about the whole situation.
Ford and Holden aren't truly "Australian" companies. Their head office in is the USA, and that, finally, is where the "big decisions" get made. How many times over the decades have big knobs from over there stepped in to make announcements on what is being done here with car manufacturing?

They aren't going to keep making cars here purely for "traditions sake", or to keep the public happy, or to keep Bathurst rolling along. They do it for one group of people and for one purpose: the shareholders and the bottom line.
If sales of one particular model keep dropping, and drop below a certain level, it will become uneconomic, and shareholders will start to ask awkward questions about its future. Manufacturers have dropped popular models before, and the public has, after a brief mourning period, moved on to fall in love with the new model.

That's not being anti-Ford or anti-Falcon, it's just being realistic and looking to what has happened many times before in the past.

[dimka100]

The year 2012 it will probably be make it or break it for the Falcon. Last year Ford had a lot of excuses to justify the low Falcon sales numbers: EcoLPI supplier issues, no FGII model availability, no EcoBoost availability …

Anyways this year the Falcon will be in its FGII update form the whole year, RRP pricing has been adjusted, EcoLPI will be available the whole year, and the EcoBoost will be available for ¾ of the year … So if sales numbers don’t improve then one can safely say Ford did its best but the market has simply moved on well and truly for good …

With no further model updates scheduled for year 2012 / 2013 (apart from the immanent EcoBoost release) I think sales numbers of the 2012 year period will be as good of an indicator as it gets to judge the future viability of the Falcon in the Australian market.

[Polyal]

I think thats a pretty narrow view 2011G6E, and while its not overly incorrect I think the repercussions of Ford/Holden pulling out of local manufacturing would be far more reaching than just loosing some sales in the large car market. It would be incredibly bad press and I would think sour the public perception of the brand as a whole.

The word sustainability, and also corporate responsibility get thrown around a bit but there is some weight behind that.

The US has been calling the shots since day 1, I dont think anyone deny's or trys to hide that fact. Generally is the locals are paying there way more or less then they dont really care...FoA is never going to make massive amounts of money via sales...not enough to sustain the continue budgets that a modern car needs..hence why tapping into a GWRD program means so much.

Is it not time to move on, the green light has been given for the short term and Ford have a global issue with RWD, not one thats just for our little island.

Cheer up, all is not over and Ford have a great chance to push a product that by all rights should be doing much better than it is. The message still isnt getting out to the public. Bring on more smart and aggressive campaigns IMO.

[Gadgetman]

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

And you are who ?

Someone whose wages will be impacted should Territory, Falcon & Falcon Ute goes bye bye.

[Dr Smith]

How many sales globally are there for Mondeo? I remember jpd80 posting that in Dec'11 Mondeo sales were quite low, around 2500, in Europe. I know that a new model is coming however would these numbers satisfy a European plant at even double this volume?

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Gadgetman

Someone whose wages will be impacted should Territory, Falcon & Falcon Ute goes bye bye.

It's 2012 but all the critics are still living back in 2011 and cannot see that Ford
has a fresh local line up so I think you can breathe a bit easier for a while old mate..
something tells me that Ford will move heaven and earth to make Falcon a success if they can,
all with the blessing of the top brass....

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by dimka100

The year 2012 it will probably be make it or break it for the Falcon. Last year Ford had a lot of excuses to justify the low Falcon sales numbers: EcoLPI supplier issues, no FGII model availability, no EcoBoost availability …

Anyways this year the Falcon will be in its FGII update form the whole year, RRP pricing has been adjusted, EcoLPI will be available the whole year, and the EcoBoost will be available for ¾ of the year … So if sales numbers don’t improve then one can safely say Ford did its best but the market has simply moved on well and truly for good …

With no further model updates scheduled for year 2012 / 2013 (apart from the immanent EcoBoost release) I think sales numbers of the 2012 year period will be as good of an indicator as it gets to judge the future viability of the Falcon in the Australian market.

This is a pretty good assessment. They have a refreshed range with full availability of LPi, and soon Ecoboost. New Territory, plus diesel too. If things don't pick up this year it will be a very bad sign.

Falcon sales will also depend on Ford getting the message out about price cuts and FGII. If they really do want Falcon to survive they need to advertise. If they don't, you'll know they will just let it die off.

[Joe5619]

I agree... 2012 is the most important year for Falcon ever.. It really is swim or sink...

When does EB4 go into production.. I just hope this model does not keep getting delayed.. First we were told late 2011, then Jan/Feb 2012 & now it is April 2012.. I just hope this does not get push back even more.. Ford need this model in the market ASAP!!

[EgoFG]

IMHO Holden is selling commodore almost entirely on reputation at the moment, and have a parent that cannot afford to make the Front of the car newer that the BA Falcon that it now resembles.

If Ford, with a newer looking car and some great engines added to the lineup, cannot make the falcon platform succeed, then they should stop making it here.

[jpd80]

Thoughts on a post 2016 Falcon and the evolution process to it:
- FG uses EUCD Slim Door and framing technology
- FGII now uses global ECU, can harness be changed to version EUCD/CD4 like T6 Ranger uses?
- New IRS used in AWD Fusion could be shared with Falcon, Territory, Mustang ( maybe even front suspension too)
- Falcon, Territory and Mustang could also share power trains, steering, front suspension design, everything forward of the firewall.
- Falcon Territory and Mustang could all share Dashboard, switchgear and front seats used in latest Fusion/Mondeo


On the other side of the coin,
the new Fusion is an exciting development, the interior is about 20 mm wider than the current Mondeo,
the AWD 2.0 Ecoboost version would seem to address a lot of issues raised by RWD proponents..
A key part of CD4 project was re arranging engine bay accessories to accommodate a future V6 version.
Could V6 AWD and EB I-4 Fusion be the alternative to 2016 Falcon, are they staring us in the face?
If FoA wanted to change, Fusion and planned CD4 Edge replacement would be the vehicles to do it.

[max_torq]

well, it is not too hard to see that the impetus to a smaller number of more global platforms is about reducing development costs. The way taken will be the road of least resistance to products that get the job done. And whats good for the goose is good for the gander. If the Fusion is what the Ford US standard passeneger car is to be then why spend a dollar on a unique product for any other market.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by max_torq

well, it is not too hard to see that the impetus to a smaller number of more global platforms is about reducing development costs. The way taken will be the road of least resistance to products that get the job done. And whats good for the goose is good for the gander. If the Fusion is what the Ford US standard passeneger car is to be then why spend a dollar on a unique product for any other market.

That is one question being asked, the other is what is the cost of changing everything
versus evolving another design that uses a lot of shared engineering...
The big hint from Joe Hinrichs was that up until five months ago Ford wasn't
thinking about a global platform, now it seems that they're not so sure any more.

Just remember that implementing Cruze into Australia cost near on $600 million,
that's almost as much as an own design RWD sharing with Mustang and Fusion
keep most existing Aussie infrastructure and still get funding to make the figures work.

[Nikked]

Buy 2015-16 most of fords sedan platforms will have reached a 10 year life span, like the D3 (volvo design anyway) and the mondeo/fusion platform seems to be based of the C1 (focus) platform.

A (modular) large/medium car platform is still needed soon...

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Nikked

Buy 2015-16 most of fords sedan platforms will have reached a 10 year life span, like the D3 (volvo design anyway) and the mondeo/fusion platform seems to be based of the C1 (focus) platform.

A (modular) large/medium car platform is still needed soon...

The only thing shared between C1 and EUCD/CD4 is power trains and electrical systems.
Frames, suspension, trim and glass are all unique to C1 and EUCD/CD4.

Savings are mostly at the supplier level, not with modular designs on the production line.

[FPV GTHO]

I dont think a Fusion front end on a RWD platform can really be a serious consideration. Mustang needs a double wishbone type front end and IRS to have a hope of getting taken serious in Europe.

[max_torq]

A US Muscle car will never be taken seriously in Europe. A smart attractive pony car just might.

[fou_bleu]

Originally Posted by Nikked

Buy 2015-16 most of fords sedan platforms will have reached a 10 year life span, like the D3 (volvo design anyway) and the mondeo/fusion platform seems to be based of the C1 (focus) platform.

A (modular) large/medium car platform is still needed soon...

The new Fusion/Mondeo is on a massively revised EUCD platform (you could argue it's as good as all-new), which would have lost most of its already small relationship with C1, so by 2016, 4 years away, the Fusion/Mondeo will only be coming in for a MCE (mid-cycle evolution) - a la MB > MC Mondeo.

The D3 / D4 cars (Taurus & MKS / Flex, Explorer & MKT) are definitely going to need to be all-new as there just is no cheap way of making this platform that much better without half replacing it anyway - it's too heavy and just... bleh.

Here's my solution that probably wouldn't cost much more than whatever the plans are anyway. Give the EUCD a longer wheelbase version to replace the Taurus & Falcon ("Fusion L" / "Mondeo L" etc.) and then make a new (or rather, heavily revised) E8/D2C hybrid and then make the new 'Stang and 4-door coupe [new Falcon, enthusiasts car] off that. That also allows for a A5 Sportback Lincoln competitor...

Only problem I see is the Flex, Explorer [and Territory] and their Lincoln cousins. Surely a proper SUV platform is possible - basing them off the Taurus has really hampered the possibilities IMO...

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by 4RD4TW

Here's my solution that probably wouldn't cost much more than whatever the plans are anyway. Give the EUCD a longer wheelbase version to replace the Taurus & Falcon ("Fusion L" / "Mondeo L" etc.)

This is/was being done, but the RHD variant of the stretched CD4 platform (for the Toreass) has reportedly been canned.

[FPV GTHO]

I think deep down Ford US will take great hesitation aligning Taurus with any RWD plans, given GM's blunders with Impala.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by FPV GTHO

I think deep down Ford US will take great hesitation aligning Taurus with any RWD plans, given GM's blunders with Impala.

Ah, there's a big difference.
GM's biggest blunder was years of painful second guessing followed by cancellation with no replacement in sight.
Zeta Impala was due in 2008, cancelled before Holden developed Pontiac G8, and still in 2012 we wait for Epsillon II Impala.......

If Ford were to make a call on the next Taurus being a CD4 or RWD, they wouldn't take forever delivering it.
The problems in GM NA are philosophical not technical, they cancelled a RWD at the 11th hour with no replacement,
that is terrible business planning by anyone's measure....and also the reason Holden has suffered so much grief.

[FPV GTHO]

No doubt Ford will follow through with whatever they plan. They may chose something bold just to stick it to GM:

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Thoughts on a post 2016 Falcon and the evolution process to it:
- FG uses EUCD Slim Door and framing technology
- FGII now uses global ECU, can harness be changed to version EUCD/CD4 like T6 Ranger uses?
- New IRS used in AWD Fusion could be shared with Falcon, Territory, Mustang ( maybe even front suspension too)
- Falcon, Territory and Mustang could also share power trains, steering, front suspension design, everything forward of the firewall.
- Falcon Territory and Mustang could all share Dashboard, switchgear and front seats used in latest Fusion/Mondeo


On the other side of the coin,
the new Fusion is an exciting development, the interior is about 20 mm wider than the current Mondeo,
the AWD 2.0 Ecoboost version would seem to address a lot of issues raised by RWD proponents..
A key part of CD4 project was re arranging engine bay accessories to accommodate a future V6 version.
Could V6 AWD and EB I-4 Fusion be the alternative to 2016 Falcon, are they staring us in the face?
If FoA wanted to change, Fusion and planned CD4 Edge replacement would be the vehicles to do it.

Would make no sense. They'd spend money re-engineering the same product. May as well can Falcon and Territory and import Fusion and Edge.

But seeing as Falcon and Territory are useful as design inspirations for unique vehicles. More than likely Dearborn will issue another half billion dollar freshen up with goals for global implementation in parts and layout.

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

It's 2012 but all the critics are still living back in 2011 and cannot see that Ford
has a fresh local line up so I think you can breathe a bit easier for a while old mate..
something tells me that Ford will move heaven and earth to make Falcon a success if they can,
all with the blessing of the top brass....

You may have to whisper those telling feelings.

"What are they?"

[jpd80]

Oh, nothing to share but probably a lot of people see Ford and Holden positioning themselves for funding in an election year,
a cynic would suggest that both accentuated drops in 2011 figures to underscore the need for government assistance...
Many people will benefit from the government funding to the car industry and the stability that brings... and Labor's image too..

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by FPV GTHO

No doubt Ford will follow through with whatever they plan. They may chose something bold just to stick it to Toyota/Hyundai

Fixed.

The objective here with this model expansion is Toyota, Hyundai and VW to a lesser extent.

[FPV GTHO]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Fixed.

The objective here with this model expansion is Toyota, Hyundai and VW to a lesser extent.

In terms of profit, growth, sure.

But given the amount of advertising they're doing centered around not receiving bailout money, i think they're still willing to put the boot into old rivals whenever convenient.