Australia housing bubble

[Smoke Pursuit]

Remember the old thread about this... from about 2009 where the world was going to fall apart and all us investors were going to be on the streets......

Makes me think of Elton Johns I'm Still Standing.

[Trump]

Originally Posted by Smoke Pursuit

Remember the old thread about this... from about 2009 where the world was going to fall apart and all us investors were going to be on the streets......

Makes me think of Elton Johns I'm Still Standing.

The housing market should have had a correction back in 2009, the fact that it didn't means that when it does happen, it will be a lot worse.

And it will correct, for one simple reason:

“Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist.”

- Kenneth Boulding.

[au350hp]

Originally Posted by Trump

The housing market should have had a correction back in 2009, the fact that it didn't means that when it does happen, it will be a lot worse.

And it will correct, for one simple reason:

“Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist.”

- Kenneth Boulding.

Out of curiosity, do you rent or own?

[Trump]

Originally Posted by Roostercam

Out of curiosity, do you rent or own?

We own our PPOR.

[DoreSlamR]

Originally Posted by Smoke Pursuit

Remember the old thread about this... from about 2009 where the world was going to fall apart and all us investors were going to be on the streets......

Makes me think of Elton Johns I'm Still Standing.

Ask those who bought in places like port hedland how they're doing

[Smoke Pursuit]

Originally Posted by DoreSlamR

Ask those who bought in places like port hedland how they're doing

If something sounds too good to be true it probably is.

[DoreSlamR]

Originally Posted by Smoke Pursuit

If something sounds too good to be true it probably is.

More the massive drop in prices.

Some people got burned hard...but then prices were massively inflated anyway

https://reiwa.com.au/wa/port-hedland/6721/

$1.25 million down to $355k in 4 years 😲

[Mercury Bullet]

Originally Posted by DoreSlamR

More the massive drop in prices.

Some people got burned hard...but then prices were massively inflated anyway

https://reiwa.com.au/wa/port-hedland/6721/

$1.25 million down to $355k in 4 years 😲

A mate of mine has just bought the house that his employer had been renting for him at Pretty Pool.

Paid $190k.

A couple of years ago that very same house was on the market for $2.5 million.

[nuthin' fancy]

Originally Posted by DoreSlamR

More the massive drop in prices.

Some people got burned hard...but then prices were massively inflated anyway

https://reiwa.com.au/wa/port-hedland/6721/

$1.25 million down to $355k in 4 years 😲

Only just saw this ^^^

About 10 years ago I had clients working in Port Hedland earning $400k between them. They wanted to buy an ordinary house for $1.1m to stop paying $600 per week in the caravan park.

I said, "Buy a nice mobile home for $100k, buy 4 $250k houses for rental in Gippsland where you come from. When you want to leave Pt Hedland it will be because you are sick of it and/or you will be earning less. Don't bank your future on a single location operating outside the norm".

They're back, they're set for retirement. The only problem is that kids moved into the rental and aren't that diligent with rent payments.

Wish the advice I gave myself was as good!

[GASWAGON]

Clearence rate for Sydney over Queens B'day weekend saturday dropped down to 67%.

Melbourne was still high at 80%.

Only time will tell?

[FTE217]

yep, Sydney prices are falling lol....all depends where in the metro.
Summer Hill, 5mins from cbd...these would have street parking only I expect.

[TEZG]

Originally Posted by FTE217

yep, Sydney prices are falling lol....all depends where in the metro.
Summer Hill, 5mins from cbd...these would have street parking only I expect.

Yep, "the hill" is a real hotchpotch of different houses built quite a while ago, tiny workers cottages to mansions, my joint is similar to the one in Wellesley st, bought for high 7's in 05, I hated paying that much then.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by TEZG

Yep, "the hill" is a real hotchpotch of different houses built quite a while ago, tiny workers cottages to mansions, my joint is similar to the one in Wellesley st, bought for high 7's in 05, I hated paying that much then.

Summer Hill was our initial choice but I never found a house with garage and off-street parking that I could afford. Ended up on the other side of Old Canterbury Road in Dulwich Hill where the houses were bigger and cheaper at the time.

[ebxr8240]

In 14 years bought rental for 300k sold the other day for 670k ..

[FTE217]

ol Dully.
and once upon a time all these areas were cheap as !

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by FTE217

ol Dully.
and once upon a time all these areas were cheap as !

Everywhere was cheap. Came across the Real Estate liftout from a 1972 edition of a Saturday Sydney Morning Herald found while going through our company's archives recently - 4 Br house in Cremorne Pt with harbour views, $34,000

[FTE217]

yep this is life....

[GREGL]

People complaining about capital city prices are one thing but have a look a what people are paying for northern N.S.W around Mullum and up to the border. It has me scratching my head how they can justify the prices. Unless you are a tradie your only employment would be service industry. Stuff all else to rely on and if it is majority Sydney retirees on super driving that economy they best hope a sharemarket crash doesn't happen along with a housing downturn.

My rellies bought into Mullum 40 years ago, the last of them has a land holding of 100 acres or so. When he thought about selling a few years ago his appraisal was $750-800 grand. That now is an average price for a town block with an house or alternatively you can spend $750,000 and buy ONE acre a short drive out ! Then you can build your dream home.
One word , CRAZY.

[GASWAGON]

Hopefully a bit of a slowdown coming soon?

It cant go on forever!

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/nab-c...0170713-gxaa5m

[MITCHAY]

My settlement date is 4th of August. I've been looking forward to this moment for a long time. 3 weeks to go!

[GASWAGON]

O.k don't mean to scare everybody but tonight on ABC at 8.30pm 4 Corners are doing a show about this very subject.

Can't wait......I think its going to be pretty shocking.

Prices have been rising for near on 15 years now.....Surely its gotta slow down soon its just getting out of control now and the Gen Y's will never be able to save for a deposit the way it's going???

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stori...17/4719901.htm

[Franco Cozzo]

If I didnt buy 13 different cars in the last 7 years I'd probably be able to afford a house.

But cars ftw

[Franco Cozzo]

Though price of dog box rental apartments is crazy in Melbourne.

One of my colleagues is paying $500/week rent for a tiny apartment in Melbourne.

[galaxy xr8]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Though price of dog box rental apartments is crazy in Melbourne.

One of my colleagues is paying $500/week rent for a tiny apartment in Melbourne.

Is that inner city/CBD though ?.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by galaxy xr8

Is that inner city/CBD though ?.

Its inner eastern suburbs but not CBD

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Though price of dog box rental apartments is crazy in Melbourne.

One of my colleagues is paying $500/week rent for a tiny apartment in Melbourne.

Or could live in Melton for $200 pw for same accommodation. But smashed avos have to be near the action

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

If I didnt buy 13 different cars in the last 7 years I'd probably be able to afford a house.

But cars ftw

Cars can't be costing you that much surely? Are there any other areas of expense you can cut back on? Entertainment... ?

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Or could live in Melton for $200 pw for same accommodation. But smashed avos have to be near the action




Cars can't be costing you that much surely? Are there any other areas of expense you can cut back on? Entertainment... ?

Former business partner is paying $250/week off the books for some hovel 60km out of Melbourne on the side of our main road in and out of town where the owner of the house still has usage on the house and shed and uses it to work on his trucks and operate his business out of

In Melton your house gets broken into every 5 minutes for the priviledge.

Though my colleague doesn't have a car either so he relies on public transport.

I'm not too fussed about owning a house, not really a priority for me so I don't really care what they cost.

Cars, I've spent around $120K on or there abouts in the last 7 or so years.

If I could do it again, I'd have stuck with the Fiesta and I'd be driving an R35 GTR or a Gallardo by now

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by CoolBFWagon

O.k don't mean to scare everybody but tonight on ABC at 8.30pm 4 Corners are doing a show about this very subject.

Can't wait......I think its going to be pretty shocking.

Prices have been rising for near on 15 years now.....Surely its gotta slow down soon its just getting out of control now and the Gen Y's will never be able to save for a deposit the way it's going???

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stori...17/4719901.htm

I've been waiting for the crash for 8 years and nada. What was underestimated was the governments willingness to throw cheap money at people and bending their own rules (hello FIRB! anybody home?). They will keep the ponzi going for as long as they can.

[mike_nofx]

I think with the Rent Vs Buy debate people need to look longer term.

Renters will say "You pay $800 per week mortgage while I can live in the same house for $550 per week rent", well yes thats true for today. But what will rent prices be in 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?

"The best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour"

For any long term renters, what were you paying for rent 20 years ago? What was the average weekly mortgage repayment?

Also, all those waiting for a bubble burst are dreaming. Prices of desirable locations (don't link me to some s#%&hole in the middle of nowhere that dropped massively) will never 'burst'. The likely scenario is house prices will stall, or at best drop by 10% (after they have already doubled or tripled). If you think those $2m Sydney houses will "burst" down to $750k, sorry, you can dream on.

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by mike_nofx

I think with the Rent Vs Buy debate people need to look longer term.

The only reasons to own your own home outright versus renting (apart from having equity to borrow against and something to leave your kids).... Is one day;

1. You may be long term unemployed and cannot afford rent.

2. Unable to work through injury / health, and on a disability pension and cannot afford the rent.

3. The day you retire... You may only have the government pension to live on, and it won't be enough to cover both future high rent and expenses.