Falcon / Large Segment
As there is no longer any manufacturing of the Falcon / Ute and Territory these models are now just fading away with some residual sales of dealer stock. Falcon can now be considered completely gone and it has been removed from most of the charts and graphs.

Mustangs sold 705 in March and this is down 8.1% on the year to date numbers for last year.

The Commodore also is now in run out of residual stocks and sales of the ‘new’ model to register 990 sales (576 less than in 2017) while the Aurion sold 17 – 265 less than in 2017. It will be interesting to see what the take-up of the replacement ‘Commodore’ is like but it might take a month or two before the sales volumes settle.

For the year to date all three models are obviously down with the total passenger market up by 4.21% or 11,179 units.

The top sellers for this month see some changes amongst passenger vehicles. The Toyota Corolla (3,218) retained the segment lead ahead of the Mazda 3 (2,780) dropped one place and lost with the Hyundai i30 (2,719) up a place in 3^rd. The Nissan X-Trail (2,504) gained four spots to 4^th; the Mitsubishi ASX (2,337) gained a massive twenty-two places to be 5^th; Mazda CX-5 (2,261) down three places in 6^th; Toyota RAV 4 (1,952) down two places to 7^th; VW Golf (1,713) down a place to 8^th; Honda HR-V (1,683) up six places to 9^th and the Toyota Prado (1,677) also up six places to round out the Top Ten.

Worth noting: Toyota Kluger (1,144) dropped ten places to 23^rd place while the Mazda CX-3 (1,356) dropped eight spots to 19^th while the Nissan Qashquai (1,497) gained fourteen places to 14^th.

If we were to include the 4x4 Utes in the listing, then the Toyota Hilux comes in at 2^nd overall; the Ford Ranger top the sales charts, the Mitsubishi Triton is 4^thand the Holden Colorado takes 20^th place.

No Ford models made it inside the Top 25 and seventeen of the Top 25 come from the one of the SUV categories.

The Large segment gained market share to 1.25% of the market in March and it (naturally) dropped 48.75% (3,219 units) in volume compared to 2017.



The top selling passenger vehicle sales are shown below:



.. and the same chart with the 4x4 Utes included.:



The chart below looks at the large segment slide in comparison to the Light (Fiesta), Small (Focus) and Medium (Mondeo) segments during the last ten years – from a dominant position to almost at the bottom.



Ute 4x2
The Falcon Ute is gone now and won’t be included in future charts except where historically appropriate. Ranger sales were good with 597 sold during the month, 58 more than the same time last year.
The Ford Ranger (up 2.3%) remained in 2^nd place this month behind the Toyota Hilux (1,124) but in front of the Isuzu Ute D-Max (514) up one place, Mazda BT-50 (442) down one place and Mitsubishi Triton (321), also up one place.

For 2018 YTD the segment is up 1.36% (129 units) and it held a smaller 3.52% of the market.



4x4 Utes
The 4x4 Utes held an improved 15.79% of the total market during the month and their segment sales are up 13.98% (5,106) for the year thus far. Most of the major contenders made gains compared to the same period last year – Navara (+28.7%), Triton (+13.0%), Hilux (+25.5%) and Ranger (+17.9%) with only the Colorado (-15.7%) taking a hit.

The Toyota Hilux (3,224) lost the segment to the Ford Ranger (3,467) with the Mitsubishi Triton (2,778) steady in 3^rd ahead of the Holden Colorado (1,295) which gained a place to 4^th and the Nissan Navara (1,260) down one in 5^th place.



Given the movement in the 4x4 and 4x2 Ute segments, we are going to include the previous quarterly analysis of how they are performing year against year in this report and report on it monthly instead. The only entrants included are those with both a 4x2 and 4x4 entrant so that does leave some out but nothing with any significant volume.



.. and a closer look at the 4x4 Utes only…



The final chart depicts the combined Holden and Ford sales for 4x2 Utes as a percentage share. This looks at the period from January 2012 when they both had two entries in the market place and as the Ranger continues, this chart will remain.



Prestige Segment
The Caprice, also in stock run-out mode managed 20 sales and the luxury segment is down 13.33% overall. Chrysler’s 300/C managed 31 sold in March to be up 13.9% on this time last year.

With no Ford entrant in the category we no longer graph this category.

Fiesta / Light Segment
The Hyundai Accent (1,551) retained the segment lead with the Mazda 2 (947) in 2^nd and the Honda Jazz (907), steady in 3^rd.

The rest of the top group consists of:
Suzuki Swift (816) up one to 4^th;Toyota Yaris (748) down one to 5^th;
VW Polo (635) up one to 6^th;
Kia Rio (583) down one to 7^th; and the
Ford Fiesta (103) gained a place to 10^th.

This segment held a lower 7.2% of the total market in January and is now up compared to 2017 by 4.0% (805 units). Its downward results for about half the contenders in the segment with the Toyota Yaris down 17.7%, Mazda 2 down 4.6%, Fiesta down 49.0% and VW Polo down 8.3%. Kia Rio +28.1%, Holden Barina +37.4% and Suzuki Swift +90.1% are the biggest winners.

Please note we have shortened the time scale on some of the segment graphs as they were getting too difficult to read over the longer term.





Focus / Small Segment
The month saw Focus up a spot in 9^th place with 386 sold. The segment lead was retained by the Toyota Corolla (3,218) ahead of the Mazda 3 (2,780) with the Hyundai i30 (2,719) in 3^rd.

The remainder of the Top ten are:
VW Golf (1,713) steady in 4^th;
Kia Cerato (1,659) steady in 5^th;
Honda Civic (1,464) steady in 6^th;Subaru Impreza (1,036) up two places to 7^th;
Holden Astra (906) down one place in 8^th;
Ford Focus up one place in 9^th; and
Hyundai Elantra (345) up one place in 10^th.

The Mitsubishi Lancer dropped out of the Top 10 with only 250 sold.

For the year to date, Corolla is down 6.5%, the Mazda 3 is down 7.7%, the Focus down by 14.9% and the Subaru Imprezza down 8.2%. On the winning side, Honda Civic is up 67.3%; VW Golf up 20.2% and Holden Astra up 82.2%.

The segment held a much lower market share of 18.36% in March and it is up 1.51% (804 units) compared to 2017.





Mondeo / Medium Segment
In March, 214 Ford Mondeos were sold and it remains in 3^rd place. The segment lead was held by the Toyota Camry which sold 1,416 with the Mazda 6 (306) still in 2^nd and the Volkswagen Passat (165) up one place to 4^th. The Skoda Ocatvia (139) gained a place to 5^th while the Hyundai Sonata (138) also gained one to 6^th. If they were counted on size and not price the Mercedes C Class (610) and CLA-Class (399) would have been in the top five.

Percentage wise, the Hyundai Sonata (+37.6%) is the only winner compared to 2017 with the Subaru Liberty (-30.2%), Mondeo (-35.8%) and Honda Accord (-39.8%) the biggest losers.

The segment held a steady 2.74% of the market in March and has lost volume by 21.66% compared with 2017 – a drop of 1,976 sales and it really is rapidly becoming as irrelevant a segment to contend in as the large segment has been for some years.





Ecosport / Light SUV Segment
During March, the Ford Ecosport sold an improved 137 units and it gained one place into 12^th place with the rest of the order being:

Mitsubishi ASX (2,337) up four places to take the segment lead;
Nissan Quashqai (1,497) up four places in 2^nd;
Mazda CX-3 (1,356) down two places in 3^rd;
Honda HR-V (1,207) down two places in 4^th;
Subaru XV (1,045) down two places to 5^th;
Hyundai Kona (873) down two places down a place to 6^th; and
Toyota CH-R (750) steady in 7^th.

Please note that we have realigned our stats with the VFACTs categories now that there is a Ford entrant in this segment.
Mostly losers in this segment, the Nissan Juke is down 62.9%, Holden Trax down 33.6% and the Ecosport down by 34.9%. On the other side, Subaru XV is up 90.2% and the Nissan Qashqai up 6.5%.

The segment held a much larger 11.36% of the market in March and it is up 28.62% (6,663) compared to 2017.





Escape / Compact SUV Segment
During December, the Escape sold 398 units and remained in 10^th place with the top positions held by:

Nissan X-Trail (2,504) gained two places to take the segment lead;
Mazda CX-5 (2,261) dropped a place to 2^nd;
Toyota RAV-4 (1,952) dropped a place to 3^rd;
Honda CR-V (1,683) up two places in 4^th;
Hyundai Tucson (1,601) steady in 5^th;
Mitsubishi Outlander (1,433) down two places to 6^th; and
Kia Sportage (1,161) steady in 7^th.

Most contenders are now up in volume for the YTD with only the Hyundai Tuscon down 14.8% and Subaru Forester down 15.6%. Honda CR-V is up 183.3%, Escape up 23.1%, Mitsubishi Outlander up 26.9%, Toyota RAV4 up 11.8% and Kia Sportage up 1.6%.

The segment held a smaller 15.8% of the market in March and it is up 16.28% (6,182 units) compared to 2017.





Territory / Medium SUV Segment
Territory is done with no sales last month and only 3 YTD. The segment lead was regained by the Toyota Prado (1,677) ahead of the Toyotas Kluger (1,144) which dropped a place to 2^nd with the Subaru Outback (1,107) steady in 3^rd. The rest of the Top 10 being:

Isuzu Ute MU-X (833) up two places to 4^th;
Mazda CX-9 (805) steady in 5^th;
Mitsubishi Pajero Sport (773) down two places to 6^th;
Hyundai Santa Fe (582) steady in 7^th;
Holden Captiva (452) steady in 8^th;
Ford Everest (451) steady in 9^th; and
Kia Sorento (406) rounding out the group.

Prado (+10.7%), Kluger (+41.6%) and Everest (+57.7%) are all better than last year with only the Captiva (-43%) and Pajero Sport (-10.3%) showing any substantial drop. Despite the mixed individual performances, the segment still held a slightly lower 10.0% of the market in March but has dropped volume by 4.9% for the year to date – a decrease of 1,439 sales.

The second chart depicts sales for the Territory and Everest over the entire production life.





Market Share Analysis
The Falcon v Commodore and Ute market charts have now been dropped with no sales on the Falcon platform.

For an easy look at the share held by each market segment, we have included a set of graphs that display this for quick reference – the first looks at the percentage market share for the current month while the second compares the percentage numbers for the current month for the last three years where is easy to see quickly which segments have gained and which have lost. We have also added a look at the segment movements in raw numbers terms for the month YTD. This shows the actual unit numbers that have been gained or lost within each segment for the year to date.







Total Market
Toyota retained the passenger market leadership in March with 18,517 passenger segment sales giving them a comfortable lead over Mazda (9,723); Mitsubishi (8,810) up a place to 3^rd; Hyundai (8,443) down a place to 4^th; Ford (6,589) steady in 5^th; Nissan (6,191) steady in 6^th; VW (5,137) up a place to 7^th; Holden (5,116) down another place to 8^th and Kia (5,084) in 9^th.

In percentage terms Ford is down 0.8% on 2017, Mazda down 2.3% and Holden are down 22.8%. On the positive side, Mitsubishi is up 15.2%, Kia is up 10.9% and Toyota is up 7.8%.



The chart below looks at the same data but over a shorter time frame so that movements are a little easier to detect.



We have been taking a look at the 15+-year history of the four manufacturers (Ford, Holden, Mazda and Toyota) from 2000 to the current time. These figures are based on year to date sales and as well as making the recent gain in the overall market apparent they also clearly depict how Toyota has pulled away from everyone since 2003; Mazda’s gain (and overtaking) of Ford in the 3^rd to 5^th place battle and the increasing penetration of both Nissan and Hyundai.



The next set of charts look at the trends within each segment and draws some comparisons between various battles within them.

Please note that these graphs are based on the percentage share of the total market and as the market has been growing each year for the last decade or so (with the exception of 2009) the actual gains or losses are significantly greater than the gradual changes shown in the graph.

First up is a look at the four passenger segments where we can clearly see the continued slide in the large car segment, the strength of the dominant small segment and the rise in the light segment.



.. and a more targeted look at three critical segments over a shorter time frame:



Second is the percentage share held by each segment during the last five years – worth noting is the impact of the SUV realignment and the continued, if somewhat inconsistent, strength of the small segment.



Third is a closer look at the sport, prestige and luxury segments over the same time frame. While some of the vehicles that get placed in these categories defy logic they are the segments that are a good indicator of the general economic performance in Australia and they had all trended slightly downward but appear to have rallied so far this year.



Fourth is a look at the SUV segments. These segments had been growing quite rapidly and most of that growth had been in the compact and medium sized vehicles but after the realignment this year the medium segment now has the upper hand over the compact segment most of the time although it is inconsistent.



To see who the winners and the losers are so far this year here is a comparison of the various manufacturers on a YTD basis when compared to last year. For the purpose of the exercise we have obviously picked the (modern) big four; Toyota, Holden, Mazda and Ford but also added a couple of others that have been big movers in recent times by way of comparison. The first chart looks at the raw numbers while the second looks at the percentage variation.





Drilling down on the winners and losers a bit more shows some interesting changes amongst both manufacturers and individual models.

The biggest overall improver is Honda, gaining 5,357 sales which represents a 54.8% improvement on 2017. Toyota gained 3,951 more sales but that is only an 8.1% increase. Others in the better than 10% improvement club include Isuzu Ute (+31.9%); Mitsubsishi (+15.2%), Kia (+10.9%) and Chrysler (13.9) although the latter is based on very small volume.

The biggest overall loser is Holden, down 24.2% and 4,865 sales although Land Rover dropped 23.6% (922), Jaguar dropped 37% and Infiniti lost 63.5% albeit also on very low volume.

In terms of individual models, the Honda CR-V (2,939) has gained the most sales ahead of the Toyota Hilux 4x4 (1,902), Subaru XV (1,693) and Honda Civic (1,676). The Honda CR-V also recorded the highest percentage gain (183.8%) with the Audi A5, Mercedes Benz E-Class Coupe and Holden Astra all more than doubling their sales.
On the less happy side, the Holden Commodore dropped 3,009 sales to suffer the biggest numerical loss while the next closest is another Holden (Capitva) which dropped 1,255 units. The Holden Caprice topped the losing percentage chart with an 81.5% drop while the Fiat 500X, Toyota Aurion, Mitsubishi Mirage, Audi Q3, Holden Commodore, Nissan Pathfinder, Toyota Prius C, Ford Fiesta, Hyindai iMax and Land Rover Evoque all more than halved their sales volumes compared to 2017.

Next up is a look at some individual models – naturally all of the current Ford range with any real volume has been included but also the segment leaders and the red corner competition along with anything else that seemed of interest.



.. and a (newer) comparison of all the non-Falcon based Ford models. Please note that the Mustang is now included.



Segment Performance
The data below is only reported quarterly. The first couple of charts are a graphical representation of the respective Ford models against the segment leader and the average sales for the segment over the last (rolling) 12 months so that in a volatile market the figures provided have relevance in determining trends.

From these we can see:
- the Ranger 4x2 is losing ground with 2.09:1 but an improving monthly average of 486;
- Focus (6.43:1), Fiesta (13.9:1) and the Mondeo (8.58:1) are a long way off the mark and getting worse;
- Kuga/Escape, with an improving 459 per month average is being outsold 4.81:1 by the class leading CX5 although the numbers are improving;
- Ecosport is being outsold 16.1:1 by the class leading Mitsubishi ASX and the numbers are getting worse; and
- Ranger 4x4 is the class leader and is outselling the Hilux 4x4 by a widening 1.08:1.

Note that as these are averages over the entire 12 months the impact of sales changes is amortised across that time frame and thus not immediately visible.





.. and a similar comparison for the Holden Models where Barina (4.61 and down), Astra (2.61 and up), Captiva 7 (2.39 and down), Trax (5.66 and down) and Colorado 4x4 (1.43 and down) are all being outsold by the segment leaders with only the Commodore holding the lead in the large segment.





.. and finally the two combined.



Buyer Types
Also reported quarterly, the raw data used for the charts below looks at sales of each type of vehicle across three broad segments by buyer classification and shows the buying trends across the period being reviewed.

The three charts below look at each segment graphically:
In the passenger segment, it’s mostly negative this year compared to 2017 with Private buyers down 9.39%, Government purchases down 24.63% and Rental down 18.74%. Only Business buyers are up 4.85%. Most sectors are also down across the ten-year period with Government having the largest drop of 70.93% over that time while rental buyers are up 79.1% so passenger vehicle buyers have clearly not been contributing to the market growth and the segment continues to decline in real terms.



The SUV sector is all positive compared to last year: Government (+23.63%); Private (+4.59%), Business (+13.27%) and Rental (+93.86%) all showing gains. That trend for all buyer types continues over the ten-year period emphasising the continued strength of this vehicle type with private buyers up 182.3% over that time, business up 201.4%, Government sales up by 20.05% and rental sales up by more than 2000%. As most of the improvements between 2007 and 2018 are above the total market growth this is clearly the strongest growth sector.



Finally, the light commercial segment has had a good result compared to 2017 with Private buyers up 3.11%, Rental up 46.45%, Business buyers up 11.21% and only Government down 1.09%. The ten-year trend shows 82.26% growth in private buyers indicating the move toward dual purpose vehicles (like the crew cab ute) but a 15.51% drop in the Government sector and gains for Business (+43.54%) and Rental (+344%) buyers.



We also look at the percentage share of each segment held by each buyer type to see if this confirms the longer-term trends.
In the passenger segment, the private buyer has started to decrease their share from 59.24% in 2013 to 57.07% this year. Government has improved from 2.76% to 3.07% in the same period while Business buyers are up from 31.78% to 33.54% and Rental buyer share has risen slightly from 6.22% to 6.32% over that same period.

In the SUV segment, the private buyer has increased share since 2013 from 55.14% to 56.91%. Government share has dropped from 4.14% to 2.29%; Business share decreased from 37.95% to 35.91% and Rental share increased from 2.59% to 2.89%.

The trend is a little different in light commercials with private buyer share falling from 33.61% in 2013 to 30.71% now while Business buyer share increased from 57.88% to 60.22% with the balance being taken up by small increases in Government (6.35% to 6.49%) and Rental sales (2.16% to 2.58%).

Fuel Types
We also take a quarterly look at the type of fuel that is being used in the vehicles sold today and it comes as little surprise that there has been a significant upturn in the sale of diesel powered vehicles and a corresponding downturn in the sales of those powered by petrol although some of the data is confusing.

Hybrid / Electric sales are starting to taper off although they still are much better than even a couple of years ago albeit statistically insignificant representing only 2.62% of the passenger market and 1.15% overall.

Please note that we changed the calculation method for the percentage variations in April 2009 so they are not directly comparable with prior months. We have also included a second chart for each data set that shows the percentage share held by each fuel type in the segment as this is probably a more definitive way of looking at the data.

In the passenger car segment, we see a continued weakening in the demand for diesel powered vehicles and they are down by 15.48% for the year which is significant in a market that has actually grown and they are now down 51.2% across the ten-year period.
There has been a 259.2% increase in hybrid / electric powered vehicles across the longer period and they are also up by 18.37% this year. The trend for LPG continues a downward spiral with a 100% decrease over 2017 matching the longer-term trend which is also down 100%. In the absence of any factory LPG equipped cars, we probably won’t track continue to track these and will bundle any sales into the other alternate fuels. Sales of petrol powered vehicles are down by 5.5% for the year with the longer-term trend of 18.1% down over the ten-year period softening over the last couple of years indicating a move back to this fuel type.



The percentage chart shows that hybrid / electric sales improved to 2.62% of the passenger segment while LPG powered sales are almost non-existent and despite the massive increase in diesel vehicle sales over the last few years, they are still only 3.72% of passenger vehicle sales and slowly declining.



Similarly, sales of diesel powered SUV’s have risen significantly over the ten-year period, being up 156% but they have also underperformed this year with the 4.35% drop being more significant because the segment itself grew overall. Hybrids have gained sales in this segment but a 32.54% increase this year only means 137 more have been sold. Petrol SUV sales are up 18.02% this year, while the ten-year trend is now showing a 208.5% gain so it appears the love affair with diesels is slowing in the more consumer oriented segments.



The percentage chart shows that diesel continues to decline in share and now only commands a little over a quarter of the segment (27.67%) while hybrids now make up 0.45% and petrol sales have grown market share to 71.87%.



Light commercials show an increase in diesel sales for 2018, up 11.84% this year and they are up 111.9% over the ten years. LPG has dropped to zero this year and petrol sales are down 68.8% across the ten-year period and down 16.37% this year.



The percentage chart shows a further increase in the growth of diesel sales and they are now 93.54% of the segment - there has also been a sharp decrease in the penetration of petrol sales from 31.22% in 2009 to just 6.46% now.



State of Origin
We also take a quick look at the sales by State. The data is for the full year and looks at the years from 2007 to 2018. All of the States gained volume for the year to date: NSW and the ACT the biggest winners with an 8% growth. All except WA (-22.8%), Northern Territory (-8.6%) and Tasmania (-0.7%) have improved compared to ten years ago with Victoria (+20.5%) the biggest improver over that period.

The first chart looks at the raw sales numbers over the period while the second compares the percentage change between 2017 and 2018.





Country of Origin
Finally, a little look at the origin of our vehicles - not really a concern now that we know the future of our automotive industry but it does at least show where some of the production off shore originates.

The pie chart shows the major origins for vehicles sold in the Australian market on a YTD basis (along with a comparison from 2009) while the second chart compares those figures to the previous years and the final chart shows a YTD total (by year) for all imports compared to locally produced.









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