Introduction
Falcon, Ute and Territory all recorded no sales in April so we can consider that era closed.
Mustang sold 381 in April and this is down 16.6% on the year to date numbers for last year, no doubt caused by the run out of stock before the new (and much improved) model arrives.

The Commodore also is now in run out of residual stocks and sales of the ‘new’ model to register 587 sales (854 less than in 2017) while the Aurion sold 16 as it also faded into oblivion. So far, take-up of the replacement ‘Commodore’ is not looking promising but it might take a month or two before the sales volumes settle.

For the year to date the total passenger market is up by 3.07% or 10,602 units but April sales were considerably weaker than previous months although the impact seemed patchy with some models losing very little while others lost a lot. To put some real numbers around that; April sales totalled 103,150, which was the highest for 2018 thus far but April only managed 79,517 which is a drop of 23%. Even so, the YTD figures are still ahead of those for 2017.

As a result, the top sellers for this month see some significant changes amongst passenger vehicles. The top three remain unchanged with the Toyota Corolla (2,979) retaining the segment lead despite dropping ~300 units, ahead of the Mazda 3 (2,261) also down ~700 with the Hyundai i30 (1,039) in 3^rd but losing ~800 sales. The Hyundai Tucson actually gained volume and climbed eight places to 4^th; the Mitsubishi ASX (1,706) dropped 631 sales but remained in5^th; Mazda CX-5 (1,725) dropped 536 sales and remained in 6^th; Toyota Prado (1,699) gained a few sales and gained a spot to 7^th; Toyota RAV 4 (1,444) shed 508 sales and is down a place to 8^th; VW Golf (1,326) dropped 387 sales and is down a place in 9^th and the Kia Cerato (1,322) gained some volume and a place to round out the Top Ten.

Worth noting: Nissan X-Trail (1,103) not only dropped twelve places but also lost more than 1,300 sales; Honda CR-V (930) dropped eleven places and more than 700 sales to 20^th place; the Honda Civic (800) dropped ten spots and 664 sales to 25^th; the Nissan Qashquai (625) lost seventeen places (it gained fourteen last month) to 31^st and lost 872 sales; the Mitsubishi Pajero / Sport dropped eleven places and 554 sales while the only real winner was the Hyundai Kona which gained twelve places into 21^st place but even it lost sales.

If we were to include the 4x4 Utes in the listing, then the Toyota Hilux comes in at 2^nd overall; the Ford Ranger is 3^rd and the Holden Colorado takes 13^th place. No Ford models made it inside the Top 25 and sixteen of the Top 25 come from the one of the SUV categories.

The Large segment lost market share to 1.09% of the market in April and it dropped 49.97% (4,228 units) in volume compared to 2017.



The top selling passenger vehicle sales are shown below:



.. and the same chart with the 4x4 Utes included.



The chart below looks at the large segment slide in comparison to the Light (Fiesta), Small (Focus) and Medium (Mondeo) segments during the last ten years – from a dominant position to almost at the bottom.


Ute 4x2
The Falcon Ute is gone now and won’t be included in future charts except where historically appropriate. Ranger sales were steady with 449 sold during the month, 27 more than the same time last year.

The Ford Ranger (up 3.8%) remained in 2^nd place this month behind the Toyota Hilux (937) but in front of the Isuzu Ute D-Max (347), Mazda BT-50 (332) and Mitsubishi Triton (279), all unchanged but with smaller volume.

For 2018 YTD the segment is now down 0.5% (71 units) but it held a larger 3.65% of the market.



4x4 Utes
The 4x4 Utes held a considerably lower 14.44% of the total market during the month and their segment sales are now only up 9.4% (4,552) for the year. Despite the smaller volumes, most of the major contenders made gains compared to the same period last year – Navara (+8.6%), Triton (+9.7%), Hilux (+19.4%) and Ranger (+10.0%) with only the Colorado (-16.9%) taking a hit.

The Toyota Hilux (2,659) lost 600 sales compared to April but regained the segment lead from the Ford Ranger (2,347) which dropped 1,120 sales while the Holden Colorado (1,300) gained 5 sales and one place to be in 3^rd while the Mitsubishi Triton (1,055) dropped 1,723 sales and a place to 4^th and the Toyota LandCruiser PU/CC (756) came from obscurity to take 5^th place.



Given the movement in the 4x4 and 4x2 Ute segments, we are going to include the previous quarterly analysis of how they are performing year against year in this report and report on it monthly instead. The only entrants included are those with both a 4x2 and 4x4 entrant so that does leave some out but nothing with any significant volume.



And a closer look at the 4x4 Utes only…



The final chart depicts the combined Holden and Ford sales for 4x2 Utes as a percentage share. This looks at the period from January 2012 when they both had two entries in the market place and as the Ranger continues, this chart will remain.



Prestige Segment
The Caprice, also in stock run-out mode managed 2 sales and the luxury segment is down 12.73% overall. Chrysler’s 300/C managed 27 sold in April to be up 18.5% on this time last year. With no Ford entrant in the category we no longer graph this category.

Fiesta / Light Segment
The Hyundai Accent (1,160) dropped 391 sales compared to March but retained the segment lead with the Mazda 2 (791) down 156 in 2^nd and the Toyota Yaris (665) only down 83 sales and up a place in 3^rd.

The rest of the top group consists of:
Kia Rio (554) down 29 sales and up three places to 4^th;
Suzuki Swift (525) down 291 sales and a place in 5^th;Honda Jazz (374) up two places to 6^th;
VW Polo (351) down 284 sales and down one place to 7^th; and the
Ford Fiesta (76) remained in 10^th.

This segment held a lower 6.91% of the total market in January and is up compared to 2017 by 2.55% (653 units). Despite that, it’s downward results for about half the contenders in the segment with the Toyota Yaris down 20.4%, Mazda 2 down 5.5%, Fiesta down 45.2% and VW Polo down 8.9%. Kia Rio +27.2%, Holden Barina +37.4% and Suzuki Swift +98.8% are the biggest winners.

Please note we have shortened the time scale on some of the segment graphs as they were getting too difficult to read over the longer term.





Focus / Small Segment
The month saw Focus back down a spot in 10^th place with 352 sold – and given the month that April was, a drop of only 30 units is probably a win. The segment lead was retained by the Toyota Corolla (2,979) and only down 239 sales ahead of the Mazda 3 (2,261) down 519 sales in 2^nd with the Hyundai i30 (1,903) down 816 sales in 3^rd. The remainder of the Top ten are:

VW Golf (1,326) down 387 sales and just hanging on to 4^th;
Kia Cerato (1,322) down 337 sales but steady in 5^th;
Subaru Impreza (850) down 186 sales but up one place in 6^th;Honda Civic (800) down 664 sales and one place to 7^th;
Holden Astra (497) down 409 sales but steady in 8^th;
Mitsubishi Lancer (374) up 124 sales and two places in 9^th; and
Focus in 10^th.

For the year to date, Corolla is down 1.8%, the Mazda 3 is down 6.6%, the Focus down by 18.5% andthe Subaru Impreza down 10.3%. On the winning side, Honda Civic is up 42.9%; VW Golf up 19.1% and Holden Astra up 40.6%.

The segment held a slightly better market share of 18.57% in April but it is now down overall even if it is only 0.12% (80 units) compared to 2017.





Mondeo / Medium Segment
In April, 208 Ford Mondeos were sold and it gained a place to be in 2^nd place. The segment lead was held by the Toyota Camry which sold 1,114 (only down ~200) with the Mazda 6 (180) down 120 units and one place to be 3^rdand the Subaru Liberty (169) up three places to 4^th. The Skoda Ocatvia (144) actually gained a handful of sales but remained in 5^th while the Volkswagen Passat (110) lost 55 sales and two places to be 6^th. If they were counted on size and not price the Mercedes C Class (494), CLA-Class (206) and BMW 3-Series (256) would have been in the top five.

Percentage wise, the Hyundai Sonata (+26.8%) is the only winner compared to 2017 with the Subaru Liberty (-23.0%), Mondeo (-34.5%) and Honda Accord (-50.4%) the biggest losers.

The segment held a slightly bigger 2.79% of the market in April and has lost volume by 25.34% compared with 2017 – a drop of 3,164 sales and it really is rapidly becoming as irrelevant a segment to contend in as the large segment has been for some years.





Ecosport / Light SUV Segment
During April, the Ford Ecosport sold a mere 70 units (down 67) and it gained dropped two places into 14^th place with the rest of the order being:
Mitsubishi ASX (1,706) down 671 units but retaining the segment lead;
Mazda CX-3 (1,172) down 184 sales but up one place to 2^nd;
Subaru XV (1,139) actually up 94 sales and two places in 3^rd;
Hyundai Kona (918) also up 45 sales and a place in 4^th;
Honda HR-V (789) down 418 sales and a place to 5^th;
Toyota CH-R (765) up 15 sales and a place to 6^th; and
Nissan Quashqai (1,497) down 872 sales and five places to 7^th.

Please note that we have realigned our stats with the VFACTs categories now that there is a Ford entrant in this segment.
Mostly losers in this segment, the Nissan Juke is down 61.0%, Holden Trax down 27.3% and the Ecosport down by 31.5%. On the other side, Subaru XV is up 105.9% and the Mitsubishi ASX up 15.2%.

The segment held a slightly smaller 11.16% of the market in April and it is up 29.53% (8,850) compared to 2017.





Escape / Compact SUV Segment
During December, the Escape sold 317 (down 81) units and dropped one place to 11^th place with the top positions held by:
Hyundai Tucson (1,816) gained 216 sales and four places to take the segment lead;
Mazda CX-5 (1,725) lost 536 sales but remained in 2^nd;
Toyota RAV-4 (1,444) lost 508 sales but stayed in 3^rd;
Nissan X-Trail (1,103) lost 1,401 sales and three places to be 4^th;
Kia Sportage (1,093) down 68 sales but up a place to 5^th;
Mitsubishi Outlander (1,003) lost 430 sales but remained in 6^th; and
Honda CR-V (930) down 753 units and three places in 7^th.

Most contenders are now up in volume for the YTD with only the Hyundai Tuscon down 7.5% and Subaru Forester down 19.7%. Honda CR-V is up 170.2%, Escape up 2.2%, Mitsubishi Outlander up 11.3%, Toyota RAV4 up 10.1% and Kia Sportage up 3.3%.

The segment held a smaller 15.8% of the market in April and it is up 16.28% (6,182 units) compared to 2017.





Territory / Medium SUV Segment
Territory is done with no sales last month and only 3 YTD. The segment lead was retained by the Toyota Prado (1,699) which gained 22 sales ahead of the Toyotas Kluger (1,063) which dropped 81 sales and remained in 2^nd with the Subaru Outback (862) also down 245 sales but steady in 3^rd. The rest of the Top 10:

Isuzu Ute MU-X (557) down 276 sales but holding on to 4^th;
Holden Captiva (521) up 69 sales and three places to 5^th;
Hyundai Santa Fe (520) down 62 sales up a place to 6^th;
Mazda CX-9 (493) down 312 sales and two places to 7^th;
Ford Everest (443) only down 8 sales and up a place to 8^th;
Kia Sorento (404) only down 4 sales and up a place to 9^th; and
Jeep Grand Cherokee (404) rounding out the group.

Prado (+15.8%), Kluger (+33.7%) and Everest (+53.8%) are all better than last year with only the Captiva (-37.1%) and Pajero + Sport (-18.6%) showing any substantial drop. Despite the mixed individual performances, the segment still held a bigger 11.11% of the market in April but has dropped volume by 3.0% for the year to date – a decrease of 1,132 sales.

The second chart depicts sales for the Territory and Everest over the entire production life.





Market Share Analysis
The Falcon v Commodore and Ute market charts have now been dropped with no sales on the Falcon platform.

For an easy look at the share held by each market segment, we have included a set of graphs that display this for quick reference – the first looks at the percentage market share for the current month while the second compares the percentage numbers for the current month for the last three years where is easy to see quickly which segments have gained and which have lost. We have also added a look at the segment movements in raw numbers terms for the month YTD. This shows the actual unit numbers that have been gained or lost within each segment for the year to date.







Total Market
Toyota retained the passenger market leadership in April with 16,394 passenger segment sales (down 2,123) giving them a comfortable lead over Mazda (7,723 and down 2,000); Hyundai (7,132) down 1,311 sales but up a place to 3^rd; Mitsubishi (5,508) down 3,302 sales and one place to 4^th; Ford (4,749) down 1,840 sales but steady in 5^th; Holden (4,576) down 540 sales but up a place in 6^th; Kia (4,502) down 582 sales but up two places to 7^th; VW (9,918) down 1,219 sales and one place to 8^th and in Nissan (3,208) suffering worst with 2,983 less sales than march and a three place drop to to 9^th.

In percentage terms Ford is down 4.7% on 2017, Mazda down 4.1% and Holden are down 22.5%. On the positive side, Mitsubishi is up 11.9%, Kia is up 10.5% and Toyota is up 6.7%.



The chart below looks at the same data but over a shorter time frame so that movements are a little easier to detect.

We have been taking a look at the 15+-year history of the four manufacturers (Ford, Holden, Mazda and Toyota) from 2000 to the current time. These figures are based on year to date sales and as well as making the recent gain in the overall market apparent they also clearly depict how Toyota has pulled away from everyone since 2003; Mazda’s gain (and overtaking) of Ford in the 3^rd to 5^th place battle and the increasing penetration of both Nissan and Hyundai.



The next set of charts look at the trends within each segment and draws some comparisons between various battles within them. Please note that these graphs are based on the percentage share of the total market and as the market has been growing each year for the last decade or so (with the exception of 2009) the actual gains or losses are significantly greater than the gradual changes shown in the graph.

First up is a look at the four passenger segments where we can clearly see the continued slide in the large car segment, the strength of the dominant small segment and the rise in the light segment.



.. and a more targeted look at three critical segments over a shorter time frame:



Second is the percentage share held by each segment during the last five years – worth noting is the impact of the SUV realignment and the continued, if somewhat inconsistent, strength of the small segment.



Third is a closer look at the sport, prestige and luxury segments over the same time frame. While some of the vehicles that get placed in these categories defy logic they are the segments that are a good indicator of the general economic performance in Australia and they had all trended slightly downward but appear to have rallied so far this year.



Fourth is a look at the SUV segments. These segments had been growing quite rapidly and most of that growth had been in the compact and medium sized vehicles but after the realignment this year the medium segment now has the upper hand over the compact segment most of the time although it is inconsistent. We have included the new segment for completeness.



To see who the winners and the losers are so far this year here is a comparison of the various manufacturers on a YTD basis when compared to last year. For the purpose of the exercise we have obviously picked the (modern) big four; Toyota, Holden, Mazda and Ford but also added a couple of others that have been big movers in recent times by way of comparison. The first chart looks at the raw numbers while the second looks at the percentage variation.





Drilling down on the winners and losers a bit more shows some interesting changes amongst both manufacturers and individual models.

The biggest overall improver is Honda, gaining 5,547 sales which represent a 44.0% improvement on 2017. Toyota gained 4,508 more sales but that is only a 7.0% increase. Others in the better than 10% improvement club include Isuzu Ute (+24.7%); Mitsubsishi (+11.9%), Kia (+10.5%), Chrysler (+18.5) and Ferrari (+39.7%) although the latter two are based on very small volume.

The biggest overall loser is Holden, down 22.5% and 5,823 sales although Land Rover dropped 16.7% (751), Jaguar dropped 32.7% and Infiniti lost 53.9% albeit also on very low volume.

In terms of individual models, the Honda CR-V (3,452) has gained the most sales ahead of the Subaru XV (2,287), Toyota Hilux 4x4 (1,954), Toyota CH-R (1,647) and Honda Civic (1,491). The Honda CR-V recorded the second highest percentage gain (171.2%) with the Land Rover Discovery gaining 180.9%. Toyota CH-R (+132.6%) and the Subaru XV (+105.9%) both more than doubled their sales.

On the less happy side, the Holden Commodore dropped 3,863 sales to suffer the biggest numerical loss while the next closest is another Holden (Capitva) which dropped 1,289 units and the third worst is the Holden Colorado which is 965 units down. The Holden Caprice and Toyota Aurion topped the losing percentage chart with 86.5% and 86.3% respectively while the Skoda Fabia, Hyundai iMax, BMW 5-Series, Hyundai Veloster, Mitsubishi Mirage, Suzuki Ignis, Audi Q3, Holden Commodore and Land Rover Evoque all more than halved their sales volumes compared to 2017.

Next up is a look at some individual models – naturally all of the current Ford range with any real volume has been included but also the segment leaders and the red corner competition along with anything else that seemed of interest.



.. and a (newer) comparison of all the non-Falcon based Ford models. Please note that the Mustang is now included.



State of Origin
We also take a quick look at the sales by State. The data is for the year to date and looks at the years from 2007 to 2018. All of the States gained volume for the year to date except NSW which is down 1.3%. Victoria and the ACT the biggest winners with 6.7% and 6.0% growth, respectively. All except WA (-25.1%), Northern Territory (-11.2%), Tasmania (-6.1%) and Queensland (-1.7%) have improved compared to ten years ago with Victoria (+17.8%) the biggest improver over that period.

The first chart looks at the raw sales numbers over the period while the second compares the percentage change between 2017 and 2018.





Country of Origin
Finally, a little look at the origin of our vehicles - not really a concern now that we know the future of our automotive industry is dead but it does at least show where some of the production off shore originates.

The pie chart shows the major origins for vehicles sold in the Australian market on a YTD basis (along with a comparison from 2009) while the second chart compares those figures to the previous years and the final chart shows a YTD total (by year) for all imports compared to locally produced.








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