Driving our cars in the future?

[lilmattie]

This could be a prickly subject, but I'm interested in hearing other opinions. I'm hoping that we can discuss it without problems..

I did a forum search but couldn't find a similar subject. So, as long as I can remember there's a lot of discussion regarding global warming / now climate change in the media, government and world with a lot of finger pointing, accusations and no real consensus. Most governments seem to be agreeing that they want to reduce emissions and move away from fossilized fuels and there are various methods being employed to work towards that goal.

I don't want to turn this into an argument about who is right or wrong, who believes in climate change or not - that will just get this thread closed. If you want to discuss my opinion on that, send a PM. I'm more interested in discussing what do you think the future holds for us all, as motoring enthusiasts.

The world is changing and new technologies are constantly being developed. Our older cars are becoming aged and how long do you think we can keep them going?

Is the age of the muscle car coming to an end (or did it end in the 90's?) with the invent of new technologies?

Do you believe that there will come a point that we will be unable to pursue our interests and keep our older classics on the road?

How long do you think we have before we will have to accept that all things have their time, and we're moving beyond?

Or do you think that there are other alternate fuel sources that will become more prevalent, that will allow us to keep running our vehicles when they get older?

These sorts of questions and more are what I'm interested to hear opinions from people. For myself, I have 4 cars - a work assigned vehicle, a ute and two classic falcons (40 years old now). I enjoy driving them all for various reasons. I think that there will probably become a point where either government policy prevents us, or fuel sources become too expensive for the average earner to continue to keep older cars on the road.

Lets see what people think!

[xxx000]

It'll be harder to restore our modern, current cars when the time comes, than older ones simply due to their complexity

[XB GS 351 Coupe]

I think natural attrition will take it's course, eventually people will probably just use these cars as week enders and novelty vehicles, which is probably already the case anyway, how many people do you know that actually use and XW XY XA XB etc etc as a daily every day driver??

Up till about 1996 or 1997 I was still using a genuine XB GT Sedan as a daily driver, my misses used to drive it to work in Western Sydney, we went shopping in it etc etc

I will soon be using an XB as a daily driver again, will see how that goes, it will be a bit of a challenge for me and a bit of fun..

[jpblue1000]

I think the personal transport...the car...is so entrenched in wealthy societies that they will remain in some form. Probably an alternate fuel source will power them, I believe it will be electric once a number of hurdles are jumped.
However I think congestion will drive more people onto public transport and away from the car as our cities grind to a halt with ever increasing populations..there is only so much room. That city authorities will have to tax to regulate the traffic. Congestion charges, carparking taxes etal.
Classics don't necessarily need to be driven do they, but I think taxes on older 'polluting' vehicles will reduce their prevalence on the roads.

"polluting' chosen and marked in inverted commas to reflect the opinion of others not mine.

JP

[BradEL]

A 40 year old falcon is cheaper to keep on the road than a 2010 AUdi

[mik]

As long as people get the urge to have motor cars they will be around end of story.

[burnz]

I think alternative fuels will be sourced, so for the long term being the internal combustion engine is here to stay.

maybe sugar fuel processing will improve, cleaner and viable to some extent..

[whynot]

Originally Posted by lilmattie

Lets see what people think!

An interesting philosophical question. I think part of the answer relates to the time scale that you are thinking about. At one end of the spectrum, nothing lasts for ever. At the other end, next week will be the same as last week.

Let’s assume that we are talking about, say, the year 2065. A number I have chosen based on a 2013 BP report that there are 1688 billion barrels of proven oil in reserve (around 53.3 years at current production). And when that runs out, there are another 4786 billion barrels of proven shale oil reserve. So, for the foreseeable future (I suggest at least 100-150 years), you should be able to get petrol and lubricants for your car.

But, will your car last that long? One of the most popular cars ever sold was the Model-T with over 15 million units. How many Model-T does one see on the road today? Other than a few thousand pampered units (and a few not so pampered quietly rusting away in sheds), time as taken its toll. Same with the muscle cars of the 1970’s. Some will get written off. Some will be looked after by its present owner, and neglected by its next.

There will always be a few who will have an interest in these vehicles. But, I suspect that in a couple of generations, a significant proportion of new drivers will be restricted to “driving” fully autonomous vehicles. There will still be some who learn how to drive a 2015 type vehicle with its manually operated steering, just as there are some today who learn how to ride a horse.

Do I see the end of the supercar or customisation? Nope, definitely not. There will always be the few who will tinker with their car. Instead of tuning the ports on the carburettor, they will be upgrading the main inverter capacity, or installing high power batteries, or tweaking the control systems. Some will even go so far as to reprogram the autonomous driving system so that it is more “aggressive”. Teenagers will still be teenagers and do stupid things.

I don’t think that we accept things and move on. More like the next generation just sees and does things differently.

[2011G6E]

I have a copy of the excellent book (of the TV series) Torque, by Peter Wherrit. It was on back in the seventies.
In that book there was a section at the end on cars in the future...and it was pretty much the outlook most of us young car nuts had at the time.
The book said oil would be nearly all gone by the 1990's, and the future of the private motor car didn't look good unless electric cars could be made to work. Mass transit would probably be the way of the future, not a car in every garage.

Other "experts" thought that oil would all be gone by the 1990's as well, or just after 2000 at the latest. We all thought we'd be driving around in electric buzz boxes, and petrol engines would be things of the past. Powerful engines would be a thing of the past if internal combustion could somehow be kept going anyway.

Hasn't quite worked out like that....

[CyberWasp]

Is the age of the muscle car coming to an end (or did it end in the 90's?) with the invent of new technologies?

I think the Muscle Car Era kinda stalled in the 80's / 90's for a number of reasons.
It is not over yet look at the Falcon XR8, Mustang, Dodge Hell Cat for example.
New technologies have helped over come the crippling effects that Muscle Cars suffered during those years with increased emission controls.

Do you believe that there will come a point that we will be unable to pursue our interests and keep our older classics on the road?

No, it is still possible to see a Model T and an example of pretty much every car after that still running around.
With the advent of 3D Printing I don't think we will be far off seeing things like complete body shells being re manufactured along with anything else you would need.

How long do you think we have before we will have to accept that all things have their time, and we're moving beyond?
With love, a Car will out last any of us reading this thread.

Or do you think that there are other alternate fuel sources that will become more prevalent, that will allow us to keep running our vehicles when they get older?

Other fuels and propulsion systems will come but I can't see Oil disappearing in our life times.

One other thing, I think people have been brain washed by green thinking.
No one takes into account the environmental impact of the production or recycling of a car, just the running of it after it is made.

[fps_grandma]

The world is changing and new technologies are constantly being developed. Our older cars are becoming aged and how long do you think we can keep them going?

They say keep your old washing machine because they don't build 'em like they used to.

Back in the day the general engineering design philosophy was to make your design last, see old Mercedes, 90's JDM, cast iron block I6 engines and their ilk.

But now just about every car is designed to last until a certain date e.g. this component should last 3 years because they'll say don't worry the consumer should be buying a new car after that! That way profits can be made.

After that you're on your own.

Is the age of the muscle car coming to an end (or did it end in the 90's?) with the invent of new technologies?

I heard plenty of EB XR8's and VN SS's blazing the streets. Today's affordable V8s are more quiet so I gave up on them and bought a mean-looking FGX XR6T if cars are going to be that quiet.
Meanwhile a C63 gets away with a monstrous exhaust note but at three times the price.

As for the future the muscle car will be hampered by high fuel prices but there are people out there who will always love muscle cars.
Even if electric cars become mainstream, some people just can't resist the sound of a bent 8.

Do you believe that there will come a point that we will be unable to pursue our interests and keep our older classics on the road?

Personal preference. We all prioritise things in life with our time and money.

How long do you think we have before we will have to accept that all things have their time, and we're moving beyond?

Anytime.

Or do you think that there are other alternate fuel sources that will become more prevalent, that will allow us to keep running our vehicles when they get older?

Non-renewable crude oil sources like petrol and diesel will be popular until our hand is forced to prevent the currently fast-paced economy from slowing down dramatically or grinding to a halt.

It will be an expensive hobby to keep a fuel-guzzling car but it won't stop some people.

[new2ford]

Originally Posted by 2011G6E

I have a copy of the excellent book (of the TV series) Torque, by Peter Wherrit. It was on back in the seventies.
In that book there was a section at the end on cars in the future...and it was pretty much the outlook most of us young car nuts had at the time.
The book said oil would be nearly all gone by the 1990's, and the future of the private motor car didn't look good unless electric cars could be made to work. Mass transit would probably be the way of the future, not a car in every garage.

Other "experts" thought that oil would all be gone by the 1990's as well, or just after 2000 at the latest. We all thought we'd be driving around in electric buzz boxes, and petrol engines would be things of the past. Powerful engines would be a thing of the past if internal combustion could somehow be kept going anyway.

Hasn't quite worked out like that....

Keep an eye on the electrification trend in Europe. Full electrification of all public transport (including buses) is now firmly on the agenda. Some cities, like Hamburg, have even set a date (2020 in that case) by which to achieve this.

This is the top of the tree that will filter down through all transportation. The busy development activity in the car industry is a sign of that.

It's not just oil supply that drives this, it's also the world political situation that makes oil very vulnerable.

[cheap]

Personal transport (cars) in their currently form, will go the way of the horse, it is just a matter of time, it may take 20, 50 or more years. But it has to change.

The tragectory the world is going on building more and more cars is not sustainable, massive gridlock, pollution, huge waste in lost productive time, frustration, social issues, safety issues, building more roads (which is counter productive), public transport (nah)...

New fuels, driverless cars and so on, do not fix the above issues. They are bandaids upon a festering wound. Don't get me wrong, people require mobility but it will be in another form.

How many people today took their horse to work, that's where your car is heading.

[jpblue1000]

Originally Posted by cheap

Personal transport (cars) in their currently form, will go the way of the horse, it is just a matter of time, it may take 20, 50 or more years. But it has to change.

The tragectory the world is going on building more and more cars is not sustainable, massive gridlock, pollution, huge waste in lost productive time, frustration, social issues, safety issues, building more roads (which is counter productive), public transport (nah)...

New fuels, driverless cars and so on, do not fix the above issues. They are bandaids upon a festering wound. Don't get me wrong, people require mobility but it will be in another form.

How many people today took their horse to work, that's where your car is heading.

I agree with cheap...a miracle, there is hope for us all!

JP

[aussiblue]

With self drive / autonomous vehicle rapidly emerging, together with hi tech accident avoidance technology, I can see the time coming where it will be illegal to drive cars without such technology on public roads. The argument will be that only those car that have the fool proof accident avoidance technology should be on the road as older vehicles without pose an unacceptable risk to other road users. The old timers will become like steam tractors driven for exhibitions in parks etc. Hopefully not until I am no longer in a position to drive anyway.

[2011G6E]

They mentioned a self driving car idea on Top Gear a while back, and Clarkson made a comment something like "It sounds like ma good idea for road safety, but you just know that in five or ten years time someone called Keith is going to buy one second hand, and think he can "improve" it...and that's a worry..."

[lilmattie]

Some very interesting thoughts.

To be honest - I was primarily thinking about the next 50 - 100 years, and how it will affect us who are here today.

I certainly think some of our classic cars have the potential to last well onto 100 years. Obviously they will continue to diminish in number and parts will progressively become more scarce - unless the reproduction market continues/improves of course.

Our modern cars - maybe, maybe not. I don't think they're made to last. I agree that the production attitude has changed and our society is unfortunately in a 'disposable/replaceable' state of mind.

It's staggering to consider what "whynot" posted in that 2013 BP reported 1688 billion barrels of proven oil in reserve. That's incredible. Granted - consumption is also steadily increasing - but to me that seems more than adequate for our lifetimes.

What I'm personally hoping for is some other renewable combustive fuel source to become available that will allow the older motors to remain.

The consideration of non-driver vehicles is another factor as well. Personally, I think it's amazing - but I don't think that road infrastructure is adequate. It's too unpredictable/under-developed in Australia for it to be a viable option. Working in the IT industry for over 15 years now, the parameters for a computer to be able to deal with a situation have to be pre-programmed in order for it do what it needs to do. This is the biggest hurdle for A.I. - as no program/computer is able to 'learn' because it's limited by it's original programming language. It can pseudo-learn and write code to deal with situations but it is all still limited to write that revised code on the programming language that it was built upon.

So when you think about it - if there was a situation that an non-driver vehicle came up against, and it wasn't in the list of expected 'situations', it would either have to have some sort of error check which performed some sort of safety stop.. or it bugs out and you end up in the middle of a potentially very nasty little situation.

Even though mankind is fallible and we all makes mistakes - I think it's still safer to have 'the human' in control.

I do think that eventually public transport will become a more the prevalent method of transport over the personal vehicle. Especially for commuting to work. I have no doubts that there will soon be some sort of traffic taxes being considered for CBD's and high pedestrian areas.

[Binny]

Originally Posted by fps_grandma

They say keep your old washing machine because they don't build 'em like they used to.

Back in the day the general engineering design philosophy was to make your design last, see old Mercedes, 90's JDM, cast iron block I6 engines and their ilk.

But now just about every car is designed to last until a certain date e.g. this component should last 3 years because they'll say don't worry the consumer should be buying a new car after that! That way profits can be made.

After that you're on your own.

This is the biggest problem IMHO. The automotive marketing machine wants us to believe that a 3 y/o car is old tech and no longer cool. They are constantly trotting out cool new connectivity tech and safety gizmos to make us believe that we must have the latest and greatest. Look at the new car sales figures for proof. Breaking records even when the economy is going down the toilet.

So many modern cars are scrapped because they are so complicated they are uneconomical to repair in the event of a relatively minor bingle or mechanical issue. There is so much wastage. If only the car makers put more development effort into making cars more reliable, modular and upgradeable maybe we would move away from this throw away culture they have created. I believe it would be better for the environment long term than saving half a L/100km. They never would though.
Imagine if manufacturers had upgrade packages where you could upgrade your old model to newer tech, more efficient engines etc. Like the phonebloks concept.

[2011G6E]

I'm a firm believer in the philosophy that it's better to keep a well maintained old car on the road for decades than it is to replace it every couple of years. Our 1982 Celica is a prime example. Sure, it mightn't be as fuel efficient as a brand new four cylinder car, but it's 33 years old now and still going strong. Why replace it with some anonymous new hatchback every few years?

Especially when you look into the true horrifying environmental damage being done to source the rare earth minerals and other stuff to make electric motors and battery packs for lovely "clean and green" hybrids like the Prius...

[irish2]

Originally Posted by cheap

Personal transport (cars) in their currently form, will go the way of the horse, it is just a matter of time, it may take 20, 50 or more years. But it has to change.

The tragectory the world is going on building more and more cars is not sustainable, massive gridlock, pollution, huge waste in lost productive time, frustration, social issues, safety issues, building more roads (which is counter productive), public transport (nah)...

New fuels, driverless cars and so on, do not fix the above issues. They are bandaids upon a festering wound. Don't get me wrong, people require mobility but it will be in another form.

How many people today took their horse to work, that's where your car is heading.

There are too many people in the world. Is that what you are trying to say here too?

[irish2]

Originally Posted by Binny

This is the biggest problem IMHO. The automotive marketing machine wants us to believe that a 3 y/o car is old tech and no longer cool. They are constantly trotting out cool new connectivity tech and safety gizmos to make us believe that we must have the latest and greatest. Look at the new car sales figures for proof. Breaking records even when the economy is going down the toilet.

So many modern cars are scrapped because they are so complicated they are uneconomical to repair in the event of a relatively minor bingle or mechanical issue. There is so much wastage. If only the car makers put more development effort into making cars more reliable, modular and upgradeable maybe we would move away from this throw away culture they have created. I believe it would be better for the environment long term than saving half a L/100km. They never would though.
Imagine if manufacturers had upgrade packages where you could upgrade your old model to newer tech, more efficient engines etc. Like the phonebloks concept.

Koenigsegg do this. Costs a fortune however.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by lilmattie

Or do you think that there are other alternate fuel sources that will become more prevalent, that will allow us to keep running our vehicles when they get older?

That time is already here. In fact its been here since before petroleum. It will only get better as starch yielding algae are developed further. I think there could be an XB in everyone's future, like the old washing machine. Different jets, advance the timing and replace rubber in the fuel lines.

Edit: less carbons in the chain, less pollution too.

http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel_...nol_drane.html