First quarter 2006 report for Aussie car industry

[Falcon Freak]

As escalating fuel prices are something everybody is aware of, I believe most people are watching to see what impact it has upon the car industry. In particular are the local four manufacturers who have all their eggs in the 'big car' basket.

Here is how they have performed in the first quarter this year verus the same time last year (all figures suplied by FCAI):

Ford

Falcon -11,709 (13,190) -11.2%
Territory - 4,541 (5,815) -21.9%
Falcon Ute - 3,846 (4,413) -12.8%
Fairlane - 288 (379) -24.0%
LTD - 13 (18) -27.8%

Total Ford - 20,397 (23,815) - 14.4%

Holden

Commodore - 13,508 (17,167) -21.3%
Utility 4x2 - 3,854 (4,470) -23.0%
Adventra - 756 (311) +143.1%
Statesman - 548 (796) -31.2%
Monaro - 435 (567) -23.3%
Utility 4x4 - 396 (231) +71.4%
Caprice - 127 (217) - 41.5%

Total Holden - 19,624 (23,759) -17.4%

Toyota

Camry 4cyl - 5,118 (5,945) -13.9%
Camry 6cyl - 2,421 (2,855) - 15.2%
Avalon - 23 (961) - 97.6%

Total Toyota - 7,562 (9.761) -22.5%

Mitsubishi

380 - 2,940 (0) N/A
Magna - 302 (3,700) -91.8%
Verada - 42 (628) -93.3%

Total Mitsubishi - 3,284 (4,328) -24.1%

Total all four - 50,867 (61,663) -17.5%

Before anybody jumps in and says 'but Holden exports a lot more cars', I am planning on adding the export numbers for 2006 first quarter later this week.

All the numbers are looking very ugly.

FF

[Fairlane]

Not cool, though some of those figures are misleading ie magna, verada, avalon and adventura sales. Those terry figures are worrying without a dobt, in fact the whole thing is worrying, even 4 cyl camry sales are down.

[Dave_au]

Originally Posted by Falcon Freak

Before anybody jumps in and says 'but Holden exports a lot more cars', I am planning on adding the export numbers for 2006 first quarter later this week.

Yeah, I know Toyota have pushed out quite a few exports as well, they were the biggest automotive exporter in 2005.

[AWD Chaser]

Yeah. All down really.... Might be because of the upcoming releases of the VE, talk of BF2 (Improved economy), and $2pl fuel. I think people are holding off on the car market for now, just to see what happens by the end of this year. I think this year is going to have bad figures (compared to last year) all round....

My 2 cents...

[vztrt]

The large car industry need to do something big to turn this around, especially if fuel prices get closer to the $2pl mark.

[AWD Chaser]

too right. Diesel won't help either cause thats more expensive then ULP.

It would be very interesting if one particular car company released a model line up with the option of dedicated factory gas, or fuel.... hint hint....

I think a 4cyl version would go well now days....

[Falcon Freak]

Originally Posted by au3 chaser

too right. Diesel won't help either cause thats more expensive then ULP.

It would be very interesting if one particular car company released a model line up with the option of dedicated factory gas, or fuel.... hint hint....

I think a 4cyl version would go well now days....

I keep telling the Mitsubishi people that the biggest mistake with the 380 (besides the styling) is there isn't a 250 version (2.5 liter 4cyl). Mitsubishi would be in a much better position if they had such a model. For decades Mitsubishi Australia had been marketing its products as alternatives to the big sixes. Then they decided in 1999 when they dropped the 4cyl engine with the TH model that they wanted to step up to to the big league and take on Ford and Holden. Big mistake.

FF

[Fairlane]

On that point Falcon Freak, i agree with you completely, Mitsubishi should bust out there 2.4L 4 cyl motor again, except now people will want it and on all accounts it isnt a bad motor, it seems to run pretty well in the Grandis.

[AUIII XR8 MAN]

Well at least Ford is selling the most locally made cars in the local market but still that is a big drop in the market. I wonder how the whole market sales were overall?

[coyote]

Not just New Vehicle sales I work in minor paint repairs etc. in Brisbane

The used car market is just as bad and a lot of the yards that I have contact with are doing it very tough.


I just had my worst quarter since i started in 1997

Unfortunately April is also a slow month every year in the industry every year. So the figures will not be too favourable.

Unless fuel prices drop to under $1 again I don't see the situation changing. I fear that the next Falcon will probably be based on a ready made platform straight from the US.

Tariffs need to rise again for the situation to possibly return in the local industries favour! And don't be surprised if sometime next year, Focus is breathing down the neck of Falcon for number selling Ford vehicle.

[Falcon Freak]

Originally Posted by RATT

Unfortunately April is also a slow month every year in the industry every year. So the figures will not be too favourable.

Unless fuel prices drop to under $1 again I don't see the situation changing. I fear that the next Falcon will probably be based on a ready made platform straight from the US.

Tariffs need to rise again for the situation to possibly return in the local industries favour! And don't be surprised if sometime next year, Focus is breathing down the neck of Falcon for number selling Ford vehicle.

Tariffs to to be increased? Everybody knows that except for the bloody politicians! The plan is to drop the tariffs in 2010 from the current 10% to 5%. I believe they should have left tariffs at 15% which is where they were before the start of 2005.

FF

[bathurst77]

Originally Posted by au3 chaser

too right. Diesel won't help either cause thats more expensive then ULP.

It would be very interesting if one particular car company released a model line up with the option of dedicated factory gas....

Falcon DOES have a dedicated factory gas engine

[AWD Chaser]

The WHOLE lineup?

[Iphido]

In the Xt, Futura and Fairmont now.

With only the luxury (LWB and the Ghia) and the XR's not having LPG varients.

I would imagine there are huge concerns in the market now about fuel economy. Petrol now showing up at $1.5 a litre and suddenly $2 a litre sounds like a real reality within 12 months.

[chich]

Traditionally June sees the most activity in terms of car sales. If things don't improve by then i think the big four will seriously be in deep sh*t.

Petrol prices are one thing, however in a way the current situation has been brought on by the manufacturers themselves - they knew that tariff reductions were going to be implemented and did nothing to improve the quality, reliability, resale or image of their vehicles while they were covered by the 25% tariff. Now that superior Japanese and German vehicles are becoming more affordable thanks to the reduced tariff rates, Ford and Holden are scrambling like fools to address above points. I have no doubt they will make a meal of it. The results speak for themselves - before the tariff reduction 50% of cars sold in Australia were imported, these days it sits at 70%. The 2010 reduction will only increase this percentage again. Sorry guys but Ford and Holden missed the boat long ago....

[Iphido]

While Ford and Holden may have missed the boat check Mitsubishis numbers. They are drowning.

Holden can offset its loss with its highly successful export program. It was exporting something like 50,000 last I saw a year. Which is over 20% of its total Australian sales. And they aren't fleet sales.

[csv8]

EVO 10 in a 380 !!!!!!!!!!!!!! thats a 4 cylinder !!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Iphido

In the Xt, Futura and Fairmont now.

With only the luxury (LWB and the Ghia) and the XR's not having LPG varients.

I would imagine there are huge concerns in the market now about fuel economy. Petrol now showing up at $1.5 a litre and suddenly $2 a litre sounds like a real reality within 12 months.

LPG is also available in XR6 ute.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by chich

Traditionally June sees the most activity in terms of car sales. If things don't improve by then i think the big four will seriously be in deep sh*t.

Petrol prices are one thing, however in a way the current situation has been brought on by the manufacturers themselves - they knew that tariff reductions were going to be implemented and did nothing to improve the quality, reliability, resale or image of their vehicles while they were covered by the 25% tariff. Now that superior Japanese and German vehicles are becoming more affordable thanks to the reduced tariff rates, Ford and Holden are scrambling like fools to address above points. I have no doubt they will make a meal of it. The results speak for themselves - before the tariff reduction 50% of cars sold in Australia were imported, these days it sits at 70%. The 2010 reduction will only increase this percentage again. Sorry guys but Ford and Holden missed the boat long ago....

Quality in local cars has improved greatly in the past decade. Just take a look at EA's and VN's. We've come a long way since then. Still not perfect but much improved.

[AU-MUSTD]

The way fuels skyrocketing l belive people are now considering that the car industry is at a dead end and it's not worth upgrading until some serious fuel alternatives that are a lot cheaper come into play ie ethanol only home grown from our cane and even electric cars. Something needs to be done for the good of middle class mortgage types who are hurting in the back pockets.

[Iphido]

Alternatives. HA!

High fuel prices mean massive windfall for governments who usually have tax as a percentage on fuel. Which is why the government was looking at taxing LPG, which is a real alternative. Its in there interest to tax any viable alternative to protect revenue and a budget blowout.

Fords LPG engine could do with another overhaul. Namely Injected LPG. While carby fed LPG might do for basic fleet hack XT's, if ford wants to offer a real alternative then injected LPG is the go. People are known to pay a little (or alot) more for a car that is more economical. Look at hybrids, look at diesels. Cost thousands more.

The problem with hybrids and electric cars are, they are too expensive. Economically and enviromentally. They generally don't provide tangible benifits over LPG or Diesel cars. Prius gets simular economy to a VW Golf Diesel. The Golf is cheaper, faster, lower maintence and you don't have to worry about recycling half a ton of battery every 5-10 years.

People are going to have to realise that the days of care free energy and resorces are over.

Electricity, fuel, water, etc are all going to rise dramatically in price in the next 10 years. Instead of building new expensive infrastructure governments are going to squeeze as much as possible from existing soon to be privatised plants. Who wants a new coal fired power plant near their home, or dam all that precious wilderness for tap water.

Personally I think a I6 falcon engine, injected LPG with the 6 speed is a winner. Economical, cheap to make, cheap to run and refined.

Injected LPG I would imagine would be cheaper to produce than a direct injection gasoline engine. And if the idea is to improve running costs then LPG runs streets ahead.

While Japanese and German vechicals are becoming more affordable they offer less. The falcon ride quality can be compared in outright terms to that offered by the 5 series and its stiffy runflats. Engine performance too, very simular, with the falcon taking a (theoretical) lead on fuel economy over the 7 speed E350. Quality and fit and finish have varied on the german side why Australian cars are being screwed together and designed better than times previous. BMW and Ford even share the same transmissions now. Many BMW and Merc aren't made in germany, but in South Africa.

While its popular to predict doom and gloom Aussie manufacturers are getting a great deal of it right.

[Falcon Freak]

Originally Posted by Iphido

Fords LPG engine could do with another overhaul. Namely Injected LPG. While carby fed LPG might do for basic fleet hack XT's, if ford wants to offer a real alternative then injected LPG is the go. People are known to pay a little (or alot) more for a car that is more economical. Look at hybrids, look at diesels. Cost thousands more.

Holden were working on an injected LPG version of the Alloytech engine. It was killed in the end because it was deemed too expensive at that time. With petrol at almost $1.50 a liter maybe Holden may revive this engine.

FF

[Iphido]

Injected LPG would cost a few grand more. But fuel today it is already at the 1.35 level and I bet I could find country stations where it is already over 1.50. Worse still, its going to continue to rise as demand outstrips production.

A conflict with Iran, would set the market to panic and there would be no upper limit. We are already at record highs and theres plenty of signs to show the market drifting upwards even with no panic.

Its that fear that sells these technologies. Diesel for example usually has a break even point at around 100,000 km in Australia. But people would rather pay more and see 6L per 100km on the trip computer. Hybrids are the same, a $50k hatchback to save $1000 a year in fuel?

I would say the market is definately ready for a polished LPG setup. Injected would mean smoother running, more power, longer range, better economy and better able to work with electronic aids like traction control, DSC etc.

People are hurting, Businesses are hurting. This could start a mass inflation period with no obvious end.

[Dave_au]

LPG won't be immune to taxes or general demand price rises either.

Probably the best thing the Australian car industry could do is to start producing small/medium cars aka Corolla/Lancer/Focus. Realistically going forward, if the industry and fuel prices continue their current trend, I don't think we will ever see the sale numbers of large cars that we have seen in the last few years.

[all4ford]

I don't think these figures really suggest that much, considering Ford or Holden haven't really brought out a new model. Sure there's been updates, but a lot people are waiting for the next models to arrive. IMO

[Falcon Freak]

Originally Posted by all4ford

I don't think these figures really suggest that much, considering Ford or Holden haven't really brought out a new model. Sure there's been updates, but a lot people are waiting for the next models to arrive. IMO

: 15% sales reduction in one year is HUGE!

FF

[ED Classic]

All the more reason to continue with the sort of improvements that were made to the BF over the BA.

Ford should aim for 9.0l/100kmh with 6 speed auto 6 cyl. Not impossible given its low 10's on a 6 Cyl Ghia with 6 Auto now. This will hardly make the move to a Corolla which uses 7-8 seem worth it.

[Polyal]

The major problem is cash.

Its well known that Ford and GM are in the poo, GM moreso, which then effects how much you can spend on the next model.

I HIGHLY doubt that fuel consupmtion is going to get any better on these cars unless some drastic is done. Ie - weight, overall size, engine size (but that still needs weight to come down to be any good).

Its going to be interesting and tough at the same time. I would like to think that the government would step in somewhere along the line before it got to bad.

But it will be like everything else, the wont do sh|t until it hits the fan.

[chich]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Quality in local cars has improved greatly in the past decade. Just take a look at EA's and VN's. We've come a long way since then. Still not perfect but much improved.

The EA and VN were released almost 20 years ago - not 10. Granted, the Australian automotive industry has come a long way but not far enough. To me it seems that the Australian motoring public was/is content with 15mm panel gaps, mis-fitting interior pieces, sh*tty build quality, 50% loss of vehicle value over 3 years, and compromised reliability in vehicles that are supposedly engineered for our harsh climate. Ask FalconFreak to list the faults that have occured in his BA over the past 3 years then tell me if you believe they are acceptable for an Australian built car in the year 2006.

Originally Posted by Iphido

While Japanese and German vechicals are becoming more affordable they offer less. The falcon ride quality can be compared in outright terms to that offered by the 5 series and its stiffy runflats. Engine performance too, very simular, with the falcon taking a (theoretical) lead on fuel economy over the 7 speed E350. Quality and fit and finish have varied on the german side why Australian cars are being screwed together and designed better than times previous. BMW and Ford even share the same transmissions now. Many BMW and Merc aren't made in germany, but in South Africa.

What more does your $50K Falcon offer than your average Audi A4, 325i BMW, Merc C200 or Lexus IS250? Safety systems such as ESP were brought to the market by such vehicles many years ago - the Falcon has only just joined the party. Other features such as climate control, heaps of air bags, leather, zenons etc etc are either standard or optional on the euro/jap cars.
The ride quality in the Falcon is comendable, however you might want to compare the Falcon to something similar in size from the Bimmer camp - something like a 3 series. Having been in an M3, 3 series sedan and driven many BA/BF Falcons you simply cannot compare the two as BMW is in a completely different league when it comes to ride quality and driver involvement.

Unfortunately the Aussies like to see themselves as innovators however the reality is they are simply followers..